Prime Minister Scott Morrison labels Victorian road map prohibitive as cases dip
Premier Daniel Andrews has given an insight into the reasoning behind his decision to extended Melbourne’s lockdown with new modelling painting a grim outlook on what Christmas might look like. It comes as Victoria’s road map from lockdown was labelled prohibitive and crushing by Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
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Premier Daniel Andrews has given an insight into the modelling used to decide Victoria’s road map out of restrictions.
The modelling conducted by The University of Melbourne and the University of New England, was shared to social media by the Premier.
The modelling paints a bleak outlook of what’s “likely to happen” if restrictions were “eased too quickly”.
The modelling shows that if ‘Stay at Home’ restrictions were eased when daily case numbers were averaging 25 there would be a 60 per cent chance Victoria would be back in lockdown by Christmas.
The modelling also shows that if drive daily numbers dropped down to five before taking the next step – the likelihood of lockdown by Christmas would be at just 3 per cent.
Mr Andrews said there was worry that case numbers could “explode” if restrictions were eased too quickly.
“I know everyone wants this over as soon as possible. So do I,” he wrote.
“But there’s one thing worse than having restrictions in place – and that’s coming out too fast.”
It comes as thresholds for reopening Victoria set out in the road map unveiled on Sunday were deemed overly cautious and prohibitive by Scott Morrison.
The Prime Minister on Monday said at the levels outlined in the Victorian plan, Sydney would be in lockdown now, which he said was unnecessary.
Mr Morrison said the federal government had not yet received “detailed modelling” and would be looking at that closely to provide advice to Premier Daniel Andrews after that.
“What I can’t help but be struck by is that under the thresholds that have been set in that plan Sydney would be under curfew now,” Mr Morrison said.
“Sydney doesn’t need to be under curfew now. They have a tracing capability that can deal with outbreaks.
“That’s why I say it’s important that we work on building that tracing capability in Victoria to get it at a level that enables it to move in a more confident way than I think the plan that was announced yesterday set out.”
Mr Morrison described the announcement as “crushing” for Victoria.
He said he wanted to hear more about how the Victorian government would support businesses in the state.
“The announcement that Victorians would continue to live under curfew and be under these restrictions for many months, if not just weeks in the most harsh of those restrictions, of course is crushing news,” Mr Morrison said.
LOWEST DAILY INCREASE SINCE JUNE
A day after Victoria’s stage four lockdown was extended, the state has recorded its lowest daily increase of COVID-19 cases in more than two months.
Just 41 new cases were added to the state’s total overnight, the lowest increase since 40 cases were recorded on June 26.
The total number of coronavirus cases recorded in Victoria since the start of the pandemic is about 19,550, with Monday’s new case figure also lower than Sunday’s 63.
Nine deaths were added to the state’s growing toll, taking the total to 675.
The fatalities included a woman in her 70s, a woman and three men in their 80s, and a woman and three men in their 90s.
Eight of those deaths are linked to aged-care.
Four new mystery cases have been identified, adding to Victoria’s 1781 active cases.
Regional Victoria has 95 active cases, including 16 in Geelong — a decrease of three.
Mr Andrews pointed to the 725 cases recorded on August 5, in comparison with Monday’s 41.
“These are difficult times, but to go from 725 cases to 41 cases in a month, that demonstrates to you that this strategy is working, the sacrifices that we are making are worth something,” he said.
“I want that to count and that’s why we simply can’t open up as quickly as everyone would like us to.
“I would like to open up much more quickly than we can, but none of us have the luxury.
None of us — not me, not any Victorian — has the luxury of letting our frustration get the better of us … That’s not a recipe for anything other than a third wave.”
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton acknowledged the “long road ahead”, saying there was no easy path to take.
“It’s not easy from a mental health point of view for anyone and so I think we have always been cognisant of what it means to have these restrictions in place,” he said.
“Equally, what’s the alternative? Because we have done this modelling to understand what it would mean to lift at an earlier point in time, to lift at different numbers, and going into another lockdown, I think, would be even more devastating for a mental health point of view.
“No easy pathway here, the same across the world. Unless you have eliminated it completely, you really are playing that balancing game of trying to minimise the restrictions in place, but not put at risk everything that we have gained over the last month, which is very substantial.”
RESTRICTION ROAD MAP NOT SET IN STONE
Mr Andrews was forced to defend his road map to recovery on radio following an angry backlash from industry bodies and the community.
He said on Monday morning the Victorian road map out of lockdown was not an elimination strategy, despite the plan stating that “COVID-normal” would not be reached until the state was free of the virus for 28 days.
But he also said the five-step strategy could be remodelled to fast-track the lifting of restrictions if cases start to drop at a faster rate than they are currently.
“There is a chance that if there’s a significant shift, if we saw things change dramatically, then we would obviously remodel the whole thing,” Mr Andrews said.
“We have to be confident that we knew enough … There are things you will never know. Not every single symptomatic person gets a test so it could be bubbling out there in the Victorian community at a level greater than what your testing numbers show.
“But if there’s a step change, then of course, we always reserve the right to look at that, model it, make sure it is truly representative of how much virus is out there and we would make judgments based on that.
“It’s all driven by the data and if the data was to fundamentally change then we would be standing up making different announcements.”
Prof Sutton said “there’s potential” for the steps to be brought forward.
“I think we should always be in the process of continuous review,” he said.
“There’s absolutely a need for clarity and in people’s minds, they need to know especially from an industry point of view about some of those indicative dates.
“But we could miss them on the one hand because we don’t get to those numbers … we should also reflect on being in a much more successful position earlier on and to give consideration to earlier.”
The Premier said he was expecting future outbreaks of the virus in 2021 but did not intend to send Victoria into another lockdown after the final step of the road map is reached.
“A strategy where you’re trying to eradicate it would mean to say if you got past that 28 days [with no cases] and you had one case, you would go back into lockdown. That’s the difference,” he told 3AW.
“We will have cases in the future, in 2021. We will have outbreaks but you’ve got to give close contact tracers decent odds, it’s got to be a fair fight.
“If they’re trying to trace 100,000s of people everyday, then you just can’t do it. But if you get it down really low, you don’t have to go back into lockdown because you can track and trace them and keep a lid on things, but only off a really low base.”
WHY SHOPPING IS STILL A LONG WAY OFF
The government is staying firm on keeping Melbourne’s shopping precincts closed, saying COVID-19 outbreaks in retail settings “can happen in an explosive way”.
Prof Sutton said keeping retail precincts closed would play a crucial role in controlling transmission of coronavirus.
“In a retail setting, people are mobile, there are thousands and thousands, tens of thousands or more, moving through daily and I‘m sure the risk of transmission is there … they’re indoors, people getting in close proximity, but we can’t identify them as outbreaks because those individuals will go back home and they have been to one particular retail setting but also been shopping for food, also gone out for medical care, emergency purposes,” he said.
“And so we can’t always identify the transmission in those places. And I’m sure a lot of those retail settings would say, ‘we never had an outbreak identified with our setting or with our chain of stores’, but the risk is there especially if it’s indoors, especially if people gather in large numbers and are in relatively close proximity.
“So I’m sure transmissions is occurring and that’s been the consideration in terms of just bringing down the volume and the movement of people in those tens, hundreds of thousands, that we know retail occurs.”
Mr Andrews echoed Prof Sutton’s thoughts, saying reopening retail precincts could result in thousands of daily cases.
TRIO OF BOOZERS FINED
A trio drinking booze on an inflatable boat in a Caroline Springs lake is among the latest Victorians to be slapped with fines for breaking lockdown restrictions.
Victoria Police issued fines in the past 24 hours, including 68 for breaking curfew, 11 for not wearing a mask and 28 at vehicle checkpoints.
Others to be fined include:
• A man who breached curfew to collect a takeaway because he didn’t want to pay the UberEats surcharge.
• A man was stopped at the Little River checkpoint after curfew who told police he was on the way to pick up a mate so they could go back to his house and drink.
• A man at Lilydale Railway Station who was more than 40km from home for a “day trip” who told police he thought the restrictions were over.
SINGLES BUBBLE CLARIFIED
People living on their own will be able to have another person visit from Sunday, with Mr Andrews clarifying how the bubble would work.
“The person who is supporting them doesn’t need to be another person who lives on their own, but … they are able to have someone come from another household,” he said.
“Much like the intimate partner arrangement, which has operated now for months, the curfew does apply, but the 5km limit does not.
“So much like partners being able to spend time with each other and move freely between each other’s properties — when you’re together though, for the purposes of the curfew, that is essentially your home.
“So you need to be abiding by the rules that everybody else abides by when they are in their
home.
“This is a small but an important step when you consider how heavy the burden is on those who live on their own and have genuinely been unable to engage with anybody else.”
There can only be one nominated person for the entirety of the stage’s restriction.
“Whoever they nominate is that person until we move through to the next step,” Prof Sutton said.
HOW VIC COULD FAST-TRACK END TO LOCKDOWN
Victoria’s path out of lockdown could be “accelerated” if contact tracing was improved, according to one of the federal government’s top medical experts.
It comes as Premier Daniel Andrews’ unveiled the grim path to slowly ease restrictions which will see Melbourne’s five million citizens will endure the longest consecutive coronavirus lockdown of any city in the world.
Strict stay-at-home orders will be enforced until at least October 26 — and possibly longer if the state can’t get cases under control.
Defending the harsh road map, which was savaged by business groups, Mr Andrews said: “You can’t run out of lockdown because otherwise you will be running into a third wave and we will all be in lockdown again.’’
Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien said: “Today Victorians have been betrayed’’, while Prime Minister Scott Morrison described the lockdown extension as a “crushing” blow.
The road to recovery strategy — exclusively revealed in the Herald Sun on Thursday — includes a two-week extension of stage four restrictions.
The current 8pm-5am curfew will be eased to 9pm-5am from next weekend.
People who live alone will be able to socialise with one other person who can be outside the 5km zone and social gatherings will be permitted between two people or a household.
Playgrounds will be reopened and picnics in a park allowed with one other person.
But stay-at-home restrictions will not be completely lifted until late October and only if the daily average fell below five new casses.
On current modelling metropolitan Melbourne will have spent more than 100 days of consecutive lockdown since stage three came into force in early July.
Meanwhile, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Michael Kidd said the Commonwealth was “ready to provide further assistance” if Mr Andrews asked.
But on Sunday the Premier said contact tracing work being done in Victoria was at the same standard of that in NSW — widely seen as the gold standard.
“It most likely exceeds it in terms of the numbers and our performance is equal to it,” Mr Andrews said.
“We are delivering performance that is as good as they are delivering and they’re dealing with maybe a dozen cases a day, and 30 or 40, close contacts, we’re dealing with an infinitely large number, and yet we’re delivering metrics.”
But data released by the federal government on Friday last week showed 2 per cent of people who had received a positive test had not been fully contact traced within 24 hours — compared with none over the same period in NSW.
It was an improvement from the 10 per cent recorded the week earlier.
Prof Kidd’s comments about contact tracing reiterated those reported from University of Melbourne epidemiology professor Tony Blakely, who was involved in developing Victoria’s coronavirus modelling.
“With improved contact tracing, the current time frame out of lockdown could be accelerated,” Prof Kidd said.
“The Commonwealth stands ready to provide further assistance with contact tracing in Victoria, which is now arguably one of the most important tasks. New South Wales has shown us the model of high-performance contact tracing.”
Mr Morrison, Health Minister Greg Hunt and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg on Sunday said the path forward should not be with restrictions but with a better health response.
“Of critical importance is that Victoria’s contact tracing is strengthened to the highest possible levels,” a joint statement read. “In NSW, this has enabled the Berejiklian government to respond to multiple outbreaks while permitting businesses and people to carry out their daily lives in a COVID-safe way. Restrictions are not substitutes for strengthening health systems to cope with the virus, especially when community outbreak is brought under control.”
Last month the Herald Sun revealed reluctance by Victoria’s health authorities to share data with other states forced the federal government to step in.
— Tamsin Rose
MELBOURNE CUP DAY IN JEOPARDY
On-site spectators at this year’s Melbourne Cup remain under a cloud as the Premier vows he will not compromise his COVID-19 strategy for “one day at the races”.
But the state government has not ruled out the possibility of some crowds at Flemington under a special exemption for the marquee racing event.
Mr Andrews confirmed on Sunday the Spring Racing Carnival will still go ahead from October 31 but said it was “too early” to say whether crowds will be allowed on site to watch the race that stops a nation.
According to the state government’s road map out of lockdown, spectators will not be allowed at sport until at least November 23 — the last step of reopening — and only 50 people are permitted to be gathered outside from then on.
However, Mr Andrews said the racing carnival fell under the “major sporting events” caveat and was therefore subject to further discussions about on-site crowds.
“The events will still go on. The question is whether there will be people on site watching it,” Mr Andrews said.
“Compromising the strategy for a day at the races for 5000 people or 25,000 people is not worth it. It’s just not worth it. As much as I respect the contribution that sector makes, we have got to do it safe,” he said.
A spokeswoman for the Victorian Racing Club declined to comment on Sunday, saying they needed time to consider and work through Sunday’s announcement.
— Genevieve Alison
TOURISM INDUSTRY TO CONTINUE ‘SUFFERING’
Victoria’s tourism industry will continue to suffer as travel within the state remains off the cards for months to come, the industry’s peak body has warned.
Prof Sutton said on Sunday no date had been set for when Melburnians would be allowed to travel to regional Victoria for a weekend getaway or holiday.
And Mr Sutton said in order for Victorians to travel freely within the state’s borders, metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria will need to be “in alignment” with each other in terms of virus case numbers.
According to government’s road map out of lockdown revealed on Sunday, “intrastate” travel will not be allowed until the third step commencing October 26 – or when there is an average of fewer than five cases in the past 14 days.
In response to the announcement, Victoria Tourism Industry Council chief executive Felicia Mariani said the state’s tourism and events sector, which had virtually been in shutdown for six months, would continue to suffer.
“From the road map outlined today, we can see that any pathway to recovery is still some time away for our industry,’’ Ms Mariani said.
“We completely understand and support the need for a careful and cautious exit from lockdown, but we cannot overstate the dire challenges facing an industry that contributed over $32 billion to the state’s economy prior to this crisis and employed over 230,000 people across our state,” she said.
— Genevieve Alison and Ian Royall
MASKS HERE TO STAY
Masks will be will remain part of daily life in Victoria for the foreseeable future.
Premier Daniel Andrews said there would be no change yet to the compulsory wearing of face coverings, but foreshadowed “a point in the future” at which this could change.
“There is a likelihood that at a point in the future we don’t need to have compulsory masks or we alter the settings in which you need to use them,” Mr Andrews said on Sunday.
He said that as the state moves towards COVID normal, masks will become “more to us” and essential in staying safe while out and about in the community.
“For as long as we can, my personal view is [they are a] high reward, low cost,” he said.
“Yes it’s a pain … but compared to being locked at home, compared to people becoming gravely ill … masks is something that we should continue to do.
“I think they are playing a part.”
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