Experts’ view: What you can expect for the rest of 2020
After more than 100 days in lockdown, weary Melburnians are more than ready to relaunch life in their city. But with the virus threat not yet over and interstate travel still very much off the cards, experts have pegged what we can expect for the rest of 2020.
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Three leading experts — Australian National University epidemiologist Peter Collignon, Deakin University chair of epidemiology Catherine Bennett and University of South Australia epidemiologist Adrian Esterman — react to Victoria’s new restrictions and predict what we can expect in the months to come.
DO THE EASING OF RESTRICTIONS ANNOUNCED ON SUNDAY GO FAR ENOUGH?
PC: “It is good that some outdoor restrictions have been lifted, but with such low case numbers it could go further. The 25km limit doesn’t stop transmission so it doesn’t actually do much.”
CB: “I believe we were ready to go Step 3 in full as in the road map, but perhaps holding off on home visits for another week or two.”
AE: “Yes – I think they are carefully measured, and reflect the current case number situation.”
SHOULD MELBOURNE’S PUBS, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS BE ALLOWED TO OPEN FOR SEATED SERVICE NOW?
PC: “Yes, outdoors. But it could be another week before we can know for sure.”
CB: “Outdoors, yes. Indoors in another week or so following regional Victoria’s lead.”
AE: “No — I would like to see a few more days with low case numbers before taking that decision. We have seen how easily clusters can happen.”
IS THE HOUSEHOLD CAP WHICH DICTATES THAT THE 10 PEOPLE WHO GATHER OUTDOORS CAN ONLY BE FROM TWO MELBOURNE HOMES NECESSARY?
PC: “Gathering outdoors is less risky than indoors so it could probably be increased more, and you might not need to wait a month to do it. With warmer weather and sunlight, people are more likely to be further apart.”
CB: “The household limit is more important than the people limit. As an epidemiologist, I am focused on the number of households interacting so, for now, two is good. The people count can disadvantage larger families, though for no difference in risk reduction.”
AE: “It seems quite a strange restriction. But I assume that it is based on mathematical modelling.”
IS VICTORIA’S TRACK AND TRACE SYSTEM STRONG ENOUGH TO SNUFF OUT ANY OUTBREAKS?
PC: “It is definitely functioning better than before. Results of sewage testing would also show us where the virus is across a large population and different suburbs.”
CB: “The ring of containment around contacts of contacts seems to be rolling out well. The fact that 100 per cent of contacts are now followed up within 48 hours is very reassuring, and what it takes to get on top of outbreaks rapidly and effectively to be managed.”
AE: “I do not have intimate knowledge of the current system. However, my understanding is that it is greatly improved, especially with the follow up of close contacts of close contacts. That, and the low numbers taking the pressure off the contact tracers gives me confidence.”
DO YOU THINK CROWDS WILL BE ALLOWED AT THE MCG FOR THE BOXING DAY TEST? AND SHOULD THEY?
PC: “We need to be careful of being too overconfident — even the crowds expected in Queensland worry me. We have to wait and see. Once you’ve only got one or two mystery cases a week it could be possible.”
CB: “Venues where numbers can be managed, where there is dedicated and spaced seating have opened up safely elsewhere. I’m hoping we don’t have any cases to worry about then, but even if there are still a couple here and there, this may still happen.”
AE: “That depends very much on whether very low or zero daily cases are maintained, and mystery cases keep decreasing. If by that time, Melbourne has had several days of zero cases, then it would be a low risk, especially if social distancing is enforced and people wear face masks.”
W HEN DO YOU THINK MELBURNIANS WILL BE ABLE TO TRAVEL TO REGIONAL VICTORIA?
PC: “Again, once you only have one or two mystery cases every week then you could have people moving within the state.”
CB: “I am hoping all intrastate borders and travel limits will be lifted very soon. The idea of the ring of containment is that it takes the public health response, and the restrictions, to the virus no matter where that is. Our numbers are now low enough to switch from blanket rules to this targeted approach.”
AE: “I think that when there have been several days of zero cases, it would be very low risk.”
WILL VICTORIANS BE ABLE TO TRAVEL INTERSTATE DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS?
PC: “It is not unreasonable to expect that we could because there’s still a few months to get the cases down enough by Christmas.”
CB: “I would say all intrastate and interstate travel limits and borders will be lifted very soon.”
AE: “If the current trend in case numbers continues, then I think there is a very high chance. Final word. I would really like the Victorian Government to tell the general public on what information these restrictions are based. They would get much better compliance.”
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