James Campbell: Fear of what Dan will do next could spark Victorian exodus

Daniel Andrews gives every impression that it won’t take much bad news before he throws us back into lockdown hell. Sadly, if you can’t deal with the stress of worrying what Dan will do next, then maybe Victoria isn’t the place for you, writes James Campbell.

The first reaction of most Victorians was no doubt relief. And fair enough.

After weeks locked inside for up to 22 hours a day, the relief at being allowed to leave home to socialise and exercise will be immense.

Great, too, will be joy at the end of the hated 5km rule.

Those who use them will also be happy to be reunited with their beloved golf courses, tennis courts and skate parks.

It shows how low we have sunk that some people will feel genuinely grateful we are to be permitted these treats along with visits to the physiotherapists, osteopaths and hairdressers. But as it sinks in how little is actually changing under the latest iteration of Daniel Andrews’ route back to what it pleases him to call COVID normal, expect depression to deepen.

The only meaningful change to economic activity outside the aforementioned allied health professionals is that tradies can return to work carrying out household repairs.

We still have another two weeks until we can have people over to our homes and even then only two people with kids.

Restaurants, cafes and pubs are meant to open then but it won’t feel very normal. Actually, we might not have to wait until then.

Because next weekend the Premier might bring all this forward.

Or he might not. It depends.

You’ll just have to wait another week to find out.

Dan’s original road map might have been unworkable and it might have been, as the chairman of CSL, Brian McNamee, said at the time, a question of when, not if, it was abandoned.

But it had two great merits. The first was that as a strategy of elimination-in-all-but-name, we could be sure that if it succeeded we could actually safely unlock our society.

In other words, stage four restrictions might have been nasty but we could be sure if we kept them up for long enough we could return to proper normal.

Its other great merit was it gave people some certainty or at least a vague idea what was going to happen if we achieved certain case numbers.

Of course, plenty of people thought this was either unachievable or only achievable at an economic and societal cost that was NOTworth paying.

We will never know if they were right or not because in junking its targets and moving to Sunday’s announcements, Andrews and his government have junked not just the targets but the strategy that underpinned it.

Daniel Andrews speaking at his daily press conference. Picture: David Geraghty

Not only do we now not know whether the next step is to be taken either next week or in a fortnight, we don’t even know the basis on which that decision is going to be taken. And beyond that?

Once we reach this third step, how long will we be there? On what basis will we move beyond it? We have no idea of that either.

The beauty of the elimination strategy was that it was, barring a catastrophic reintroduction of the virus, irreversible. Once it was gone it was gone.

The only logical conclusion to be drawn from its abandonment is that we have tacitly accepted that it’s a question of when, not if, it flares up again.

In which case, what is to stop us being right back where we were in July in no time flat?

If the past three months have shown us anything it is how incredibly easy it is for the virus to be up and about.

Victoria has managed to achieve the worst of all possible worlds.

On the one hand we haven’t eliminated the virus — indeed have given up the attempt — but on the other hand we haven’t accepted the nasty consequences that will flow from that decision.

There is no sign Daniel Andrews accepts that the destruction his lockdown has wrought on this city and state was only justifiable if we were pursuing elimination.

On the contrary, he gives every impression, it wouldn’t take very much bad news before he was throwing us back into the hell from which we are just emerging.

So if you were hoping you could stop tuning in to the daily case numbers you might have to think again.

We will, alas, be watching them for the foreseeable future: watching to see if we are to be given any more freedom.

Watching them to see if we are in danger of being imprisoned again. And as long as this uncertainty prevails no one — no one — is going to be opening any sort of business.

You’d be mad to even think about it. It is sad to have to say it too, but if you can’t deal with this uncertainty, if you can’t deal with the stress of worrying what Dan will do next, then maybe this isn’t the place for you.

There’s another number to keep an eye on: the number of people who will conclude they can’t take this uncertainty and decide to flee Victoria.

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