Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse all the big races at Rosehill and Flemington on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse all the major races on Golden Rose Day at Rosehill Gardens and the big meeting at Flemington on Saturday.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

FORMLINE: HORSES TO FOLLOW

STABLE WATCH: INSIDE MAIL FOR ROSEHILL

R5: KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000m)

Thomas: I liked the way McCreery attacked the line to win the Rowley Mile at Hawkesbury last start. He is a horse that has always promised a lot and being lightly raced, he can continue to improve. He hasn’t been to 2000m before but gives every indication he will excel over this trip. I have him on top from Allergic who was very unlucky in the Premier’s Cup last start. Allergic is racing well and will be very hard to beat. Junoob is well placed at the weights and Sir John Hawkwood has trialled very impressively leading into this race.

Dufficy: I haven’t been a huge fan of Sir John Hawkwood but he jumps off the page for me here. Last season he won the Sky High Stakes first-up over this course and distance and I loved his recent trial effort. Sir John Hawkwood comes off a successful Queensland winter campaign where he ran second in the Brisbane Cup. He maps well and is close to the bet of the day. Allergic had legitimate excuses running into dead ends everywhere last start, McCreery got the job done in the Rowley Mile and I agree he should run this trip out strongly. Junoob is the other main contender — the top four have this race between them.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sir John Hawkwood $6 - $5, Allergic $2.80 - $2.60 ($3000 @ $2.60). Deduction 2c x 2c for Bring Luck on Wednesday.

R6: GOLDEN ROSE (1400m)

Thomas: A case of the good colts versus the good fillies — but I feel this is a very good crop of three-year-old colts and they may have the edge. I like Divine Prophet. He unleashed a powerful surge to win the Up And Coming Stakes first-up and if he can reproduce that effort here, he will be the one to beat. On a firmer track, El Divino can improve sharply. He didn’t accelerate on the wet track last start but was rallying late to run fourth behind Astern. From his favourable barrier he is going to get the right run and he is very good value. Astern has an awkward barrier and it will require some James McDonald magic but he if gets any luck in running then don’t be surprised if this colt blows them away. Impending is an emerging colt well suited at this trip.

Dufficy: The Golden Rose is always a great race. I know the fillies have an horrific record in this race but I think Omei Sword could be something special although she will need to be to win this race. She is a big, strong filly and will eat up the 1400m. I thought she was outstanding in the Silver Shadow Stakes and I trust Chris Waller’s decision to run her in this race. The danger is Divine Prophet. He is a good colt who resumed over 1300m and was powerful to the line. He just needs a bit of pressure up front to help him. I agree with you about Astern. He is a brilliant colt but the barrier is a little bit tricky. El Divino was outsprinted from the turn in the Run To The Rose but he still tried very hard. He will appreciate a firmer track.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Astern $3.80 - $4.60 ($2650, $1000 e/w, $3500, $900 and $800 @ $4.60), Divine Prophet $4.60 - $5 ($1000 @ $4.60), Impending $15 - $11, Yankee Rose $11 - $6 ($1000 e/w @ $9.50/$2.70, $680 and $500 @ $8, $1000, $750, $700 and $500 @ $7, $500 e/w @ $7/$2.23, $500 @ $6.50, $750 e/w @ $6/$2.05), Omei Sword $3.20 - $3.80 ($2000 @ $3.20, $2000 @ $3.50)

R7: THEO MARKS STAKES (1300m)

Thomas: Southern Legend has reeled off four successive wins this year and I thought he was outstanding first-up at Randwick over 1600m when he shouldered 60kg and finished fast to win over 1000m. He faces a significant class rise here but he drops 7kg, is unbeaten in two attempts at Rosehill and I love his winning attitude. I’m very wary of Old North. This horse is a huge talent, he sprints well fresh and he looked sharp in a recent barrier trial. Counterattack is a brilliant first-up perfumer, drawn ideally, weighted well, Hugh Bowman rides — he ticks a lot of boxes. Rebel Dane was third to Winx and Hartnell in the Warwick Stakes which is great form.

Dufficy: I’m backing Old North here. I just feel he is an up-and-coming middle-distance type. I loved his trial where he was under a hold throughout, and with a good tempo up front, he is capable of finishing over the top of these with only 53kg on his back. Counterattack has been airborne in his trials, he is very good fresh horse and maps beautifully from his good barrier. I’m Southern Legend’s biggest fan but he has a few negatives here as he is very short in betting, he has to step up from 1000m straight and there is a lot more depth to this race. He is under the odds. Mackintosh’s trials have been great and he will charge home from the back here.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Tycoon Tara $7 - $8 ($1000 @ $8), Counterattack $4.60 - $4.20 ($500 @ $4.60), Mackintosh $15 - $13, Southern Legend $2.80 - $2.60 ($3000 @ $2.60)

Old North will be finishing strong with 53kg on his back. Picture: Simon Bullard

R8: SHERACO STAKES (1200m)

Thomas: Plenty of chances here, Ronnie. I do like Ravi, a mare I feel is set for a very good spring campaign. Her two trials have been really good, she has won first-up previously and will be hard to beat. Dixie Blossoms has had the benefit of one run back and is another promising mare, Heavens Above might need it further but she is well weighted, and Nancy is very capable.

Dufficy: A competitive race although it worries me that some of these better mares have to come back slightly in trip due to the programming. I’m finding it hard to be with Ravi and I think her stablemate Nancy is over the odds. She has also had two trials to prepare her for this race, she is very genuine and is at the right price. Fine Mist is a good bet at $35. She had a virus last preparation and didn’t come up so I’m going on her previous form which was good. Dixie Blossoms is racing well but has to come back in trip. Denmagic is low-flying at the trials and is very underrated. She would have been top pick with a better barrier.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nancy $11 - $9, Savoureux $15 - $11 ($500 @ $15, $1000 x $2500 @ $13/$4), Alucinari $17 - $15 ($400 e/w @ $16/$4.75), Dixie Blossoms $5 - $5.50, Denmagic $13 - $11 ($400 x $800 @ $13/$4), Ravi $7 - $5 ($800 @ $7, $600 @ $6)

R9: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HCP (1400m)

Thomas: I’m going a little wide here with More To Gain. He has been super in two runs back after a long spell, lugging big weights to run second at Gosford then winning with authority at Hawkesbury. This is a tougher race and he has drawn wide but he’s a progressive horse at backable odds. Fabrizio sprinted well first-up and is better suited at 1400m, Conarchie was very brave chasing Chetwood here two weeks ago and Coolcraft is back in winning form.

Dufficy: I also like one at odds in Balmain Boy. His trainer Les Bridge must have an opinion of this horse because he was thrown in the deep end last autumn and tested at Group 1 level. I think they are starting from scratch this time and his trials have been good. He is above average. I took the $17 on Wednesday and he is probably into his right odds now around $10. Invinzabeel has blinkers, James McDonald and barrier one so there is a lot to like about him. Coolcraft is an underrated horse and his two runs back have been excellent.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Fabrizio $9 - $8.50 - $9.50 ($600 @ $9), Invinzabeel $7 - $7.50, Coolcraft $13 - $10, More To Gain $7 - $8.50, Diamond Made $51 - $31, Balmain Boy $17 - $9

Boo Bailey’s cartoon tip for Rosehill.

FLEMINGTON

R6: BOBBIE LEWIS QUALITY (1200m)

Thomas: Kinglike is resuming here but he is a very talented sprinter and won the Danehill Stakes at this meeting last year. Under The Louvre will be charging home, Xtravagant has a huge reputation and Santa Ana Lane looks to have come up well this spring.

Dufficy: I feel Kinglike is one of the better bets of the day. I love the way he sets up here. His trial was eye-catching as he went to the line under a stranglehold. He is a straight track winner and it did take English to beat him first-up during the autumn. With 53kg I find it impossible to go past him. Under The Louvre has the class on his side and Santa Ana Lane is the best of the rest but Kinglike is a standout to me.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Under The Louvre $4.60 ($1000, $900 and $800 @ $4.60), Xtravagant $4.40 - $4.20 - $5, Kinglike $7 - $5, Tivaci $13 - $12, Faatinah $8.50 - $9.50 - $9, We’ve Got This $13 - $12 ($500 @ $13)

R7: MAKYBE DIVA STKS (1600m)

Thomas: Black Heart Bart was so good in the Memsie, he just cruised past his rivals in the straight. He is a really good horse and never runs a bad race. Entirely Platinum could get a soft lead here and can run a race at odds. Rising Romance chased home Black Heart Bart in the Memsie and the Flemington 1600m suits her. Palentino is third up here and won the Australian Guineas over this course and distance back in the autumn.

Dufficy: The Memsie looks the form race and I can’t tip against Black Heart Bart. The statistics show he hasn’t won beyond 1400m but he gives every impression he will run the trip strongly. His form since joining Darren Weir is almost impeccable and he doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Palentino is fitter for two runs from a spell and is set to run well again. Rising Romance was good in the Memsie but it is hard to get away from Black Heart Bart.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Black Heart Bart $2.25 - $2.30 ($3000 @ $2.25, $8000 and $1000 @ $2.30), Our Ivanhowe $13 - $11, Jacquinot Bay $26 - $21 ($500 @ $26), Rising Romance $10 - $8 - $8.50

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BETS

Rosehill

Race 5, No. 2: SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD

Flemington

Race 6, No. 6: KINGLIKE

OTHER BETS

Rosehill

Race 4, No. 1: OCEAN GRAND

Race 7, No. 8: OLD NORTH

Race 9, No. 11: BALMAIN BOY

SATURDAY EXTRA

RAY THOMAS’S BEST BETS

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET: CALL THE COPPERS (Race 3, No. 1)

Call The Coppers has showed good speed to lead for home in both his race starts only to be overhauled at Wyong by Rockafella and then at Scone by New Ruler. Racing well and gets all the favours.

NEXT BEST: OUR BELISA (Race 8, No. 10)

An improving filly who worked home nicely for second behind Coonawarra at Kembla Grange before her third to Sizzling Bullet at Warwick Farm. Taking on older horses here but looks weighted to win after the claim.

TRAINER TO FOLLOW: BJORN BAKER

Baker has a runner in six races and all have good winning chances – Volante (race 2), Hamiko (race 3), Loose Goose (race 4), Crosley Hotshot (race 5), Shankee (race 6) and Vega (race 8).

ARMIDALE

BEST BET: STILL THE SAME (Race 2, No. 3)

Has managed only one win from 27 starts but his recent form is sound including his late-closing second to Captain Jazz at Coffs Harbour. Small field suits, he’s very fit and this looks his race.

TUNCURRY

BEST BET: MUSICAL FAMILY (Race 2, No. 2)

Scored a tough win at Taree in a fillies and mares race and her two runs since have been competitive. There is little depth to this field and she goes into the race with better form than her rivals.

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy