Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the key races at Rosehill on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the San Domenico Stakes card at Rosehill on Saturday.

WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE VALUE BETS

SPORTSMAN PREVIEW: ROSEHILL

R4: ST JOHNS PARK BOWLING CLUB HCP (1500m)

Thomas: I’m leaning to More To Gain in an open race. He resumed after a long spell and shouldered a big weight on a very heavy track at Gosford to finish a close second to Pinchme. More To Gain is a promising galloper and although the 1500m will be a test for him second-up, he will be very competitive in an open race. Lanciato has been racing well without much luck but he has the right barrier, is well-weighted and gets his chance here. Pirate Ben is very genuine but he has to contend with an awkward barrier.

Dufficy: I like Royal Jackpot at odds. He didn’t get a lot of room first-up at Canterbury but it was still a good effort. The bigger track and 1500m suits and his second-up form is sound. I think he is ready to go at double-figure odds, Pirate Ben is an underrated horse and wasn’t far away when back in distance last start. For Lanciato, the key to his chances is a drier track.

Pirate Ben has to contend with an wawkward barrier on Saturday. Picture: Mark Evans

R5: SAN DOMENICO STAKES (1100m)

Thomas: Capitalist, the Golden Slipper winner, has looked very sharp in his two barrier trial wins. I know he has to carry 60kg but I don’t think that is an issue here. He is the class colt and we know he has a dazzling turn of foot. The danger is Star Turn. Capitalist had his measure last season but Star Turn has looked extremely impressive in his two trial wins in recent weeks, Mount Panorama has been gelded since his winless but promising juvenile season where he wasn’t far off the best of his generation. Tango Rain is unbeaten in two starts, does everything right in his races and has the race fitness edge.

Dufficy: I’m exactly the same as you, Ray, I’m leaning to Capitalist. It won’t be a walk in the park for him but I think he will win. He has had a good grounding for this race with two good trial wins, he looks to map well, and there will be no excuses for him. I loved Star Turn’s second barrier trial win, he really attacked the line and he is a definite threat to the favourite. I’ve always had an opinion of Mount Panorama. He was a bit of a dope as a two-year-old and promises to be better as a three-year-old. The last 50m of his Gosford trial was excellent. Tango Rain is up and running and can’t be overlooked.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Capitalist $1.60-$1.70 ($1,000 @ $1.60, $500 @ $1.60 MULTIPLE TIMES), Star Turn $6-$3.80 ($2,000 @ $4.60, $1,500 @ $3.80)

R6: PREMIER’S CUP PRELUDE (1800m)

Thomas: Allergic was terrific first-up when a close sixth to Marenostro in the Winter Challenge over 1500m. He was only beaten just over two lengths at a distance short of his best. Fitter now and the step up to 1800m is ideal. Allergic is drawn to get the gun run and will be in the finish. Orbec resumes here but we know he is capable of running very competitively first-up over a distance. Sacred Master caught my eye at his Australian debut in the Winter Challenge. He is a good stayer and will continue to improve this preparation. Marenostro excels at Rosehill but 1800m will test him.

Dufficy: When I did the form on this race I was really keen to bet up on Orbec at the big price. But there is no leader at all in this race, it looks likely to be very slowly run and that concerns me. Orbec has been gelded since he last raced, the blinkers are back on and he ran second in this race last year when he was a “mad colt” doing a lot wrong. Sacred Master is a likely looking stayer and he was only warming up in the last 100m last start. He is a horse to watch but the tempo could be against him here. Marenosotro gets all the favours up front and he handles all conditions. Allergic maps well and is the best of the rest. They are the four hopes in this race.

R7: SPRING PREVIEW (1400m)

Thomas: Kim Waugh can train the quinella here with Oxford Poet and Forget. Oxford Poet won the Winter Stakes over this course and distance then went up in weight and distance and was only just beaten by Marenostro in the Winter Challenge. He looks to control the tempo in front and will be very hard to run down. Forget’s two runs back have been very good and he is out to his preferred distance range now but he will need luck from an awkward barrier. Cosmic Cube won the National Sprint first-up then ran second to Havana Cooler in the Doncaster Prelude last autumn. He resumes here, has trialled well and looks hard to beat. Sadler’s Lake can sprint well fresh and is a classy type on his day.

Dufficy: I have been impressed by what I have seen from Cosmic Cube. He has shown heart and above average ability in each of his Australian starts and his recent trial was very good when he went to the line under a hold. I know he has a big weight but he only has to be near fit to win this race. He could be an Epsom Handicap contender. Oxford Poet is a good, on-pacer who is always hard to run down. I’m looking for a good comeback run from Sadler’s Lake.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Cosmic Cube $6-$4.20-$4.60 ($200 @ $6, $500 @ $5, $1,500 @ $4.60), Ruling Dynasty $8-$11- $8 ($375 @ $8)

R8: CLUBSNSW HCP (1100m)

Thomas: Kangarilla Joy resumes here but she comes off a very good trial hitout at Randwick last month and she is unbeaten fresh. She has the pace to negate her tricky barrier and 1100m is her ideal trip. I’ve got her on top from His Majesty. This grey has loads of talent and although this trip is probably a tough short for him, he is blessed with brilliant acceleration and he will be charging home. Snoopy is another with an unblemished first-up record and the old-stager Decision Time is a chance at big odds given the improving track conditions.

Dufficy: I know a lot has to go right for him but His Majesty is massive odds and a great chance. He goes well fresh and I loved his Gosford trial. He might be able to get over the top of them here. Kangarilla Joy is the obvious danger. She has never been beaten fresh and her three career wins have been at 1100m. Snoopy has looked exceptional in two recent Flemington jump-outs, he has won all three first-up runs, he has been gelded since he last raced and the writing is on the wall for him to run well. Sarajevo has been a gay deceiver in the past but I liked his recent trial run.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Snoopy $8-$4-$3.80 ($375 @ $5, $400 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.20)

His Majesty looks a great chance at good odds on Saturday. Picture: Peter Clark

R9: MOUNTIES GROUP HCP (1350m)

Thomas: In the hardest race of the day I am going a little wide here with Takewing. He can sprint well fresh as he did last preparation when he won well at his comeback run. This run should be run at a solid temp which gives him the chance to run on from the back. I don’t mind him each way in an open race. Ever So Natural has been good in both runs this time in and he is ready to win. I’m interested in Salthouse, a new stable recruit for Godolphin, as he has moved nicely without being tested in two recent trials. Dinghu Mountain is fresh for this and will be hard to beat if he gains a start.

Dufficy: I agree, it is a tough race. I have always had an opinion of Ever So Natural and with the drying track he is a big improver. I was expecting a better price but the bookies have found him. I still like Ever So Natural and I think he can beat Dragon Flyer who hasn’t won for a long while but his two runs back this time in have been very good. He gets his chance here. The two emergencies, Coolcraft and Dinghu Mountain will be right in contention if they get starts.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

Race 7, No. 2: COSMIC CUBE

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No. 13: NO WHEN TO HOLD EM

Race 8, No. 8: HIS MAJESTY

Boo Bailey’s cartoon tip for Rosehill.

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’S BEST BETS

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET: ARAZONA (Race 4, No. 7)

Is a superbly-bred filly by High Chaparral with some extraordinary dam-sires such as Storm Cat, Alydar, Danzig and the unbeaten (in 16 starts) Ribot. The Chris Waller-trained 3YO’s trial have all contained merit not least that 900m heat win at home at Rosehill 11-days ago. Has a future beyond the provincials.

NEXT BEST: COOLOTTA (Race 5, No. 3)

Is trained at the venue by Paul Murray and one of the horse’s three career wins was at home. In fact, that was at his most recent start over this same 1300m and even though it was by a nose, he beat a handy one in Chavish. Drawn three and has Bucko to steer, he won on the horse at Wagga over this trip back in May.

TRIAL GUN: LOVE LAS VEGAS (Race 7, No. 9)

Is trained by Anthony Cummings who also prepared the sire, Casino Prince. This 4YO mare hasn’t won in her 11 starts but she is WF placed behind Zara Bay and trialled exceedingly well on two occasions at Randwick in recent weeks. Very hard to beat.

THE EXOTICS

BOX TRIFECTA: Race 4, nos. 2, 4, 7

EXACTA: Race 2, No. 2 to beat No. 3 (stand out)

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW: CHAD LEVER

Lever has a strong book of rides at Kembla today, a couple of genuine chances for Kembla queen Gwenda Markwell and three for the Chris Waller. The best of those appear to be Damedge and the luckless Tuscadero on consecutive races.

TRAINER TO FOLLOW: CHRIS WALLER

Waller has a strong hand in several races, not least the aforementioned pair of Damedge and Tuscadero. On top of that, our best bet — Arazona — is one of his Kembla-bound string.

CASINO

BEST BET: BATTALION (Race 3, No. 3)

Is a Coffs Harbour trained 6YO gelding by super sire More Than Ready primed for back to back wins here after a massive come from last victory at home over 1012m in a C1 on Jul 24. Will need the speed on up front but he’ll be whizzing home regardless.

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy