Qld election 2024: Labor sandbags seats, faces wipe-out in regions

Labor insiders are saying it’s now better for the party’s future to lose in key regional seats at the October state election in a bid to rise from the ashes in four years’ time.

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Despondent Labor insiders believe it is now better for the party’s long-term future to lose in key regional seats at the October state election in a bid to rise from the ashes in four years’ time.

And it is spiralling perception of crime in the state’s north that appears to have left voters so disenfranchised, with many ready to toss local MPs out to try something new – even if they’re not yet convinced the other side’s plans will work.

Party sources have told The Courier-Mail the die is cast for the government in Townsville – and across most of regional Queensland – and a desperate strategy was necessary to keep the damage of the swings to a minimum.

YouGov polling conducted for The Courier-Mail last month revealed the LNP has extended its two-party-preferred lead over the government by one point to 57-43 per cent – marking a 10-point swing since the 2020 election.

This points to a potential loss of 23 seats for Labor, including seven ministers, and all bar one of its seven seats in North and Far North Queensland.

The strategy was now to sandbag key seats that Labor could win back in 2028, and keep the swings in check.

Another Labor insider said it would be better for the party to lose the upcoming election in order to achieve renewal.

“When you’ve been in a long time the mistakes start to compound and it starts to hurt,” they said.

Townsville business owner Kylie Johnson

“They (the three Townsville MPs) lost touch a long time ago… when you’re in you get sucked into the bubble, and it becomes all encompassing.”

The Courier-Mail has spoken to numerous victims of crime in Townsville who agree the way young criminals are dealt with has to change.

The latest crime statistics show Townsville has recorded a notable decrease in car thefts and break-ins in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year.

The figures show that car thefts in Townsville fell from 892 in the first half of 2023 to 716 in the same period in 2024.

Statewide youth offending rates fell in 2023/24 compared to the year before, alongside break-ins and car thefts.

Small business owner Kylie Johnson has had two armed holdups, both by children, within months of each other in 2023.

During the first incident the offenders came in with a machete and the other with a tomahawk, and the second time around they hit the store in broad daylight.

“We’ve all had something, or a near miss. Almost everybody would know somebody if they haven’t experienced it themselves,” she said.

“There’s got to be some different punishments. This s*** is not working. That’s the definition of stupid isn’t it? You do the same thing expecting a different outcome,” Ms Johnson said. “These kids, they know they’ll get out. They get locked up, they get let out and they go straight back to those same groups.”

Another small business owner Ian, who asked that his last name not be used for fear of reprisals, said young offenders armed with a knife and scissors broke into the family home – also in broad daylight – only to be spooked by his dogs. He was also among the first responders on the night motorcyclist Jennifer Board, 22, was killed by a vigilante chasing a stolen car in 2021.

“I think people have had enough. Yeah, I think we got to that point where we we’ve all just had enough,” he said.

Townsville victim of crime Danielle Flynn

Danielle Flynn, who lives down the road from Member for Mundingburra Les Walker, said the community is increasingly angry at how brazen criminals have become.

Just weeks ago thieves, spotting a garage door left open for a minute too long, ran into her garage and stole her nieces car.

While many in Townsville, including Ms Johnson and Ian, have made up their mind months out from the October election, Ms Flynn isn’t so sure. She believes the Katter’s Australian Party – who hold the Ingham-based seat of Hinchinbrook – could have a shot in Townsville. “People want honesty,” she said.

The duality of Townsville is while it struggles with the impact of crime, it is also a regional city with a healthy economy.

And Premier Steven Miles, in a three-day trip to Townsville in mid-July, showed he would be leaning on the city’s prosperity and the state government’s plan to “lock that in for generations to come”.

“It’s hard to believe that when I was first elected to parliament nearly 10 years ago, the biggest problem here in Townsville was unemployment,” he said.

“And to see it booming now, nearly everyone is in a job now is so fantastic, but we want to lock in economic prosperity. We want to lock that in for generations to come.”

Townsville’s unemployment rate sat at 4.7 per cent according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics update — a significant improvement on the highs of 11 per cent seen in early 2017.

Premier Steven Miles last week. Picture: Patrick Woods

Business confidence is strong according to the latest long-running survey by Townsville-based tax firm PVW Partners. The report, released in late June, found 94 per cent of businesses “expected to maintain or increase employment levels”.

Ms Johnson revealed she had just ordered a food van so she can take her bubble tea store, which she purchased this year, on the road.

Small business owner Ian said he was currently planning for expansion of the family-owned enterprise over the next few decades, and had secured prime industrial land to grow the company’s foot print.

But victims of crime said the need to feel safe in their homes will dominate the election.

Opposition Leader David Crisafulli, in early July, unveiled the LNP’s plan to slap young offenders who commit the most serious crimes with adult sentences.

It will involve changing the Youth Justice Act to ensure children committing serious crimes including murder, manslaughter, grievous bodily harm and dangerous operation and unlawful use of a motor vehicle would be sentenced as adults.

The punitive policy was swiftly panned by criminologists and lawyers, who described the move as “shortsighted electoral priming” which would ultimately make young criminals worse.

Voters aren’t locked in on what those changes should be, simply that something different has to be done.

“Do I think if the LNP come in it will fix it? I don’t know,” Ms Johnson said. “But this current situation isn’t working.”

Originally published as Qld election 2024: Labor sandbags seats, faces wipe-out in regions