Aussie storm clouds have silver lining for climatologist Dr Chelsea Jarvis

A US-born climatologist has plenty to celebrate this Fourth of July, and much of it stems from the good life she has found in the Land Down Under, writes Ann Wason Moore.

When long-term weather forecasting is your business, perhaps the preference for a predictable personal life should be expected.

That’s just one reason why “American-as-apple-pie’’ climatologist Dr Chelsea Jarvis is celebrating the fact she calls Queensland home this Fourth of July.

Born in Minnesota, raised in Colorado, schooled in California, Chelsea has lived in the southeast of our state for almost eight years, helping to chart the future of our wild weather as a research fellow at the University of Southern Queensland.

Far from isolationist academic studies in an ivory tower, Chelsea’s work sees her literally getting her hands dirty with Queensland’s beef farmers, as she conducts workshops around the state helping land producers understand the predictably unpredictable weather patterns that govern their livelihoods.

Dr Chelsea Jarvis is a Research Fellow in Agricultural Climate Research at University of Southern Queensland.

But not only does Chelsea love her work in the Aussie countryside, she loves her life in this laid-back nation.

“I am so happy to be here in Australia, it’s getting pretty scary over there,’’ she says.

“Some of my friends in the States are really feeling despair and hopelessness right now.

“Every time I see the news, it’s just getting weirder and darker. It’s just surreal.

“It’s been an incredibly tough year, coming off the back of a rough four years. I think the weather is actually more predictable than President Trump.

“That’s one of the things I appreciate so much about this country, its leaders. Scomo on his worst day is better than Trump on his best.”

Although it was her personal life that brought Chelsea to our shores, she says she has found true professional fulfilment.

After meeting her French husband in California, the pair decided to travel to Australia together, where she was awarded a scholarship to the University of Melbourne and earned her PhD in climatology and viticulture. Drawn to Queensland’s warmer weather, the now-married couple live on the Sunshine Coast, with Chelsea travelling around the state for work.

After a summer of drought and fire, she is pleased to predict some drenching rains from spring this year.

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However, that good news could come with a darker lining for the Gold Coast.

“The modelling is still early but it’s looking very likely that we are about to enter a La Nina cycle,” she says.

“We’ve been in an El Nino cycle arguably since 2018, which was why the country was so dry and hot and that’s when we see droughts and bushfires.

“La Nina means wetter, cooler conditions. The last proper La Nina was 2010 to 2012. That’s when we had the Toowoomba and Brisbane floods and flooding on the Gold Coast as well.

“That absolutely could be on the cards again this summer.

“The other things that typically come with La Nina are cyclones, and because the oceans are getting warmer we are seeing cyclones move farther south, which again could be a big impact for the Gold Coast.

Aussie storm clouds have silver lining.

“June is a funny time of year for climate modelling. Our oceans are still organising and rearranging themselves, but we’re currently at about 60 per cent chance of La Nina occurring. That’s twice as likely as usual. We just need to wait a few more weeks and hopefully we’ll see the Pacific Ocean commit to a La Nina which, despite the floods and cyclones, is something Australia could really use.”

However, Chelsea says just like in gambling, when it comes to the weather there is never a sure thing. Predictions she made in May were up-ended just days later thanks to a chaos system moving through the Indian Ocean.

“It’s like the butterfly effect. There was a late-season cyclone off the coast of WA and it stirred up the warmer waters and completely changed the outlook for the winter for the whole of the country,’’ she says.

“I had literally just made all of these forecasts saying it’s going to be a really wet winter, and then not even a week later all the modelling showed it was just going to be normal.

“The chance of this cyclone coming through and tipping the temperatures over from La Nina to neutral was so unlikely, and yet it happened.

“However, overall the Pacific Ocean has far greater impact on our weather systems so there’s still hope. It is difficult being a climatologist. People get really upset when you’re wrong because so much depends on the weather. I hate being wrong too but we can only work with the science that we have.”

Chelsea says climatologists face increasingly stormy skies from the public as weather becomes politicised. Even when speaking to farmers and producers, she deliberately does not speak of “climate change’’ but ‘‘climate variability’’ as the former term is too politically charged.

“What’s really interesting is that when it comes to viticulturists, those who are growing grapes, they completely understand climate change already because they have seen it happen before their eyes,’’ she says.

Not only does Chelsa love her work in the Aussie countryside, she loves her life in this laid-back nation.

“While others crops are planted every year, viticulturists plant their vines for 30 years at a time. They see that long-term change happening in one crop.

“But for everyone else, talking about climate change can still be a tough gig. When I talk to producers I just use the term climate variability so that I don’t turn anyone off. At the end of the day, I’m just trying to help them. I don’t care if they believe in climate change or not, if they are managing the changes from climate variability, then they are managing climate change.

“They know the land, they know their farms, I just know the climate.

“It is kind of funny when I walk out there. I’m five foot nine (175cm) and blonde and as American as apple pie, but these Aussie farmers are there to listen and learn and we have a great relationship.”

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After eight years in Australia, Chelsea says she has no desire to return to the US, although she still misses much about her home country.

She says this Fourth of July she is grateful to live in a country with universal health care and where a healthy work/life balance is possible.

“I remember as a kid and a young adult being so worried all the time about health care and medical bills. I rode horses so I knew that if I had an accident, I would be in real trouble. It was literally a source of anxiety for me as a teenager. That’s just not right,” she says.

“It is such a huge relief to be in a country where you never have to worry about that. Sure, I’m healthy anyway but when you grew up worrying, you never lose that sense of relief.

“The other thing I just love about Australia is the work/life balance. Long service leave just seems like a fairytale Australians have made up when you tell Americans. Plus a standard four weeks off every year plus public holidays. This is a country where you really can live your best life.

US-born climatologist Dr Chelsea Jarvis said she is grateful to live in a country with universal health care.

“My only complaint is that I really wish they had Whole Foods grocery stores here. For a country with such amazing produce I think the stores here don’t provide us with the best of it. It goes overseas. I also miss cheap margaritas and tacos, but I’m happy to pay more since all employees here earn a living wage.

“There are some American traditions I’ll never lose. Every Christmas I bake sugar cookies to give to friends, which is what we do in the States.

“The Fourth of July was always my favourite holiday in America, but it just doesn’t feel the same here, which is sad.

“But then I look around at where I am, you don’t get much better than the Sunshine Coast or the Gold Coast, so I guess I still celebrate, but for a different reason altogether.”