Matt Smith: Boothby may be SA’s most marginal seat but is it really attainable for Labor?
Every election, Boothby is treated as a marginal seat that could swing to Labor. But is it really in play? Watch our experts analyse the latest poll.
Analysis
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In political circles, the saying goes “the only people that truly believe the Labor Party can steal the blue-ribbon seat of Boothby from the Liberals are based in Sydney, not South Australia”.
Today’s polling suggest the assumption could again be true.
Boothby is the state’s most marginal seat — with a margin of 2.7 per cent.
For a long time it has been assumed the seat would be captured by Labor as part of a national swing against the Coalition.
It is fair to say Labor has thrown a lot of resources at the seat.
ALP candidate Nadia Clancy is a quality candidate who has worked hard to sell her party’s message in the electorate.
Ms Clancy appears to have focused her attention on selling Labor’s vision.
Left-wing lobbyists GetUp! have focused on the hardball stuff — attacking Ms Flint on her record on climate change and the ABC.
Both Labor and GetUp! have worked hard to remind voters Ms Flint was a Peter Dutton backer last year.
Ms Flint’s role was probably better described as “enthusiastic supporter” as opposed to “active participant”.
But the seat is seen by many as being “soft Liberal” full of the types of voters that would have liked Malcolm Turnbull.
It gave Labor hope that voters who supported Malcolm Turnbull in 2016 would be so disgusted by his treatment that Ms Flint would be punished for supporting the Home Affairs Minister.
Previous polling has showed voters in the electorate care about issues such as climate change, drilling in the Great Australian Bight and the River Murray — issues Labor have arguably campaigned harder on.
But today’s polling shows it does not appear to have worked.
It seems that concerns about a “retiree tax” and negative gearing changes are front of mind for Liberal supporters.
For weeks, speculation within Liberal circles has been that internal polling had Ms Flint over the line.
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But within Labor the speculation has been that it is too close to call.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is expected to be back in the electorate within days.
With so many seats in play across the country it is hard to see why — unless he too believes it is too close to call.
Originally published as Matt Smith: Boothby may be SA’s most marginal seat but is it really attainable for Labor?
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