Clive Palmer’s preferences are poised to be pivotal in Sturt, Advertiser poll reveals

Forget Nick Xenophon — another larger-than-life politician will have a massive influence on the race for Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt, an exclusive Advertiser poll finds. So who leads the race with less than three weeks to go?

Preferences from Clive Palmer's United Australia Party look likely to give Liberal candidate James Stevens the edge over Labor's Cressida O'Hanlon in Sturt, an Advertiser/YouGov Galaxy poll has found. Art: Rebecca Fletcher

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Surging support for billionaire Clive Palmer’s party is poised to help deliver a Liberal victory in the eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt being vacated by Christopher Pyne, an Advertiser poll finds.

As the Liberals confirm a nationwide preference deal with Mr Palmer’s United Australia Party, the Advertiser/YouGov Galaxy poll shows Sturt Liberal candidate James Stevens is likely to win because of the minor party’s support.

He leads the two-party preferred support by 53 per cent to Labor’s 47 per cent — a two-point decline from Mr Pyne’s 55.4 per cent to his Labor opponent’s 44.6 per cent at the 2016 election.

This is largely because Mr Palmer’s $50 million advertising blitz has propelled UAP primary support to 9 per cent, outpolling the Greens’ 6 per cent — down from 7.6 per cent at the 2016 election. UAP preferences are expected to strongly flow to the Liberals.

The poll of 504 Sturt voters, taken on April 24, shows 42 per cent primary support for Mr Stevens, down from 44.4 per cent for Mr Pyne in 2016. After an electoral redistribution, the Liberal margin is 5.4 per cent.

Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon has 35 per cent primary support, up from 23.2 per cent for the ALP at the previous election.

Scott Morrison leads Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by 45 per cent to 31 per cent, but 24 per cent are uncommitted.

However, 40 per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote Liberal because the party had Mr Morrison as leader rather than former PM Malcolm Turnbull — 25 per cent said they were more likely.

Almost half of respondents said Labor’s changes to franking credits and capital gains tax made them less likely to vote for the ALP, but 22 per cent said this made them more likely.

Mr Stevens’ primary support of 42 per cent in the one-time Liberal stronghold is the party’s lowest there since Mr Pyne was first elected in 1993, with 39.4 per cent of the primary vote.

In the first gauge of a South Australian seat during the campaign for the May 18 federal election, the poll shows the impact of the absence of a candidate for a party aligned to former Senate and state political powerbroker Nick Xenophon.

The Nick Xenophon Team gathered almost 20 per cent of the primary vote in Sturt at the 2016 election, yet the Centre Alliance, Mr Xenophon’s former party, is not fielding a candidate in the electorate at this poll.

The Palmer United Party — the billionaire’s party in 2016 — did not run a candidate in Sturt in 2016 and attracted just 778 votes statewide in the Senate.

At the 2013 election, the PUP attracted 2.99 per cent of the primary vote in Sturt and 2.65 per cent in the Senate statewide.

The Sturt results further confirm the potential electoral impact of the Liberals’ preference swap with the UAP, which Newspoll results published last week indicated Mr Palmer might be the kingmaker in four marginal seats across the country.

The race between the Liberals and Labor was tight in the four seats: Herbert in north Queensland, Lindsay in western Sydney, ­Deakin in outer Melbourne and Pearce on Perth’s outskirts.

But the UAP’s primary support was 14 per cent in Herbert, 5 per cent in Deakin, 8 per cent in Pearce and 7 per cent in Lindsay.

If these results are mirrored in other SA seats, then the state’s most marginal, Boothby (2.8 per cent) would present a challenge for Labor to wrest from Liberal incumbent Nicolle Flint.

It might also create an unexpected headache for Centre Alliance incumbent Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo, despite her trouncing Liberal challenger Georgina Downer 55-45 per cent at a by-election in July last year.

The UAP also might challenge the Greens, Centre Alliance and One Nation for SA’s final two Senate spots, because Mr Palmer is poised to unleash a final-week advertising splurge.

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