Clive Palmer’s poll shock: Controversial mining mogul’s $30 million campaign is working

He’s spent $30 million on the election and is happy to throw tens of millions more at it. Now a new poll shows Clive Palmer’s tactics are working.

A new poll shows controversial billionaire and political hopeful Clive Palmer is on track to deliver perhaps the biggest upset of the federal election.

The mining mogul, who had a three-year stint in parliament before being turfed out in 2016, is trying his luck again under the banner of his new United Australia Party and has already spent a whopping $30 million.

Mr Palmer, who plans to run candidates in all 151 lower house seats, plus a number of Senate hopefuls, could hold the balance of power after the May 18 poll.

On breakfast television this morning, Prime Minister Scott Morrison refused to comment on reports Coalition figures are already in discussions with Mr Palmer about a preference deal.

“Well, we talk to a lot of parties particularly as we go into the close of nominations and the opening of pre-polls next week,” Mr Morrison told the Today show.

“But really, the people will decide this election … what my point is that Australians are the one who will decide the election, not parties.”

United Australia Party leader Clive Palmer is on track to deliver perhaps the biggest election upset. Picture: Shae Beplate.

Clive Palmer’s expensive and flashy campaign is cutting through, with a new poll showing support for the United Australia Party has surged.

Pauline Hanson, whose One Nation Party is hoping to win enough power to hold the balance of power in the Senate, conceded Mr Palmer’s enormous campaign was resonating.

“Of course that is going to cut through,” Senator Hanson told Today.

“And how on earth can you actually compete with that? If you look at Clive Palmer last time in parliament, he was a non-event. He actually folded, people walked away from him.”

PALMER DELIVERS POLL SHOCK

Until last week, Mr Palmer was running as a candidate in the north Queensland seat of Herbert, which experts said he had “nil” chance of winning, but he abandoned it to try his luck in the Senate.

He was replaced by the UAP’s new candidate in the Townsville electorate, currently held by Labor — State of Origin star Greg Dowling.

A new Newspoll published in The Australian today shows the UAP and Mr Dowling receiving a formidable 14 per cent of the primary vote from respondents.

Clive Palmer abandoned his bid for the seat of Herbert in north Queensland and tapped in former NRL star Greg Dowling.

In Western Australia, Mr Palmer’s party is polling 8 per cent in the seat of Pearce, currently held by Attorney-General Christian Porter.

In the New South Wales seat of Lindsay, the UAP is on 7 per cent, according to the shock Newspoll, and in the Victorian marginal seat of Deakin, held by under-pressure Liberal MP Michael Sukkar, the party is on 5 per cent.

“Averaged across the four seats, Mr Palmer commands about 8 per cent of the primary vote, eclipsing One Nation,” The Australian reported.

“If the level of support shown in the lower house seats were replicated in the Senate, UAP could win up to three upper house seats.”

BOTTOMLESS BUCKET OF CASH

Estimates are Mr Palmer has poured about $31 million into his political campaign across the country.

That comes in the form of television advertisements, complete with catchy jingles, and radio ads, as well as saturation print placements.

Clive Palmer, who was the Member for Fairfax, shown falling asleep during House of Representatives Question Time in May 2014.

Billboards featuring his beaming face on a bright yellow background, with his Donald Trump-inspired catchcry “Make Australia Great”, dot highways and major roads in every state.

And there were the much-maligned mass text messages sent to millions of mobile phones, spruiking everything from fast rail to, ironically, pledging to ban unsolicited political SMS spam.

Mr Palmer has previously said he’s budgeted to spend $80 million on his campaign if he has to.

The Australian columnist Troy Bramston told Sky News Mr Palmer was “on the verge of making a stunning political comeback”. Although, he’s having to pay for it.

“If you’ve got $30 million, you can buy massive political influence in this country — that’s what it shows,” Bramston said.

You can’t miss Clive Palmer’s bright yellow billboards.

“For a guy who lacked credibility and integrity in his business life and public life, he’s on the verge of making a stunning political comeback.

“Not only perhaps buying himself a seat in the Senate but also dealing himself into preference negotiations across the country, possibly getting up senators in other states.”

Clive Palmer gains support in marginal seats: Newspoll.@ljayes: It's absolutely galling that he spent $30m this campaign & he still owes Qld Nickel workers up to $30m in unpaid wages, that should be a reminder to the people of Herbert.

MORE: https://t.co/bpxUhAhVAi #amagenda pic.twitter.com/NpSTTNgxng

— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) April 23, 2019

BALANCE OF POWER

In analysis for The Conversation, political commentator Michelle Grattan wrote research conducted by “one of the major parties” has found Mr Palmer is sticking in voters’ minds.

“One of the major parties has found people in its tracking research recalling the Palmer ads, even singing along with the jingle,” Grattan wrote.

She quotes ABC election analyst Antony Green as saying the only real prospect for Mr Palmer is a Senate seat in Queensland.

One Nation's Pauline Hanson has attacked Clive Palmer’s $30 million spend on his campaign. Picture: Tricia Watkinson

As he points out, the UAP will be fighting there against One Nation, Katter’s Australian Party and a third candidate for both Labor and the Coalition.

Outpolling the Greens and One Nation would be a battle, he told Grattan.

“Green doesn’t give Palmer much of a chance but prudently notes, ‘he’s proved us wrong before’,” Grattan wrote.

KEEP YOUR ENEMIES CLOSE

The topic of Mr Palmer’s extraordinary poll result came up in each of Mr Morrison’s interviews this morning.

Speaking to Sky News, the PM was asked about how comfortable he was supporting a man who once called him a Nazi in 2016.

“Look, we’ll be going forward in this election, and to the extent there are discussions taking place, they will and we’ll seek to settle those as all the major parties will,” Mr Morrison said.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison was soft on Clive Palmer during his morning TV interviews and dodged questions on what discussions the Coalition has had with him. Picture Gary Ramage

That was largely his tact this morning — dodging questions on Mr Palmer and his past form as well as the extent of the Coalition’s discussions with him so far.

Over on Sunrise, he repeated his line “the power lies with the Australian people”.

“There are other parties running, and to the extent that we have discussions with those, we do, but what I really want to say today is, this election will be close,” Mr Morrison told the program.

“Elections always are, and people’s votes matter. Your vote matters, and your vote can determine where this election goes and who will be the prime minister. Whether it’s Bill Shorten or myself.”

When pressed on the Coalition’s talks with Mr Palmer, he repeated: “Well, we talk to a lot of parties going into an election. Nominations are closing, and they’ll be all declared next week. Pre-poll will start next week, and this is the time that you have discussions with numerous parties.”

ON THE ATTACK

In stark contrast to the Government’s softly-softly approach to Mr Palmer’s polling surge is the response from Labor and One Nation.

Senator Hanson’s party has seen its polling performance plummet, recording just 4.5 per cent in today’s Newspoll.

“Clive Palmer is in it for Clive Palmer, not for the Australian people,” Senator Hanson told Today.

“I hope people see through that as well and look at what I have been able to achieve for Queensland in the (past) three years. So, I will base it on that. I will let the people know who do they really trust … let the people have their say on election day.”

Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has collapsed further. Picture: AAP

Her distaste is understandable, given the risk the UAP poses to her chances as well as Mr Palmer’s past attacks on the firebrand senator.

“We’ll be putting Pauline Hanson last,” Mr Palmer told The Australian in January.

Labor has also slammed Mr Palmer and described him as “outrageous”.

Anthony Albanese was speaking on Sky News when he unleashed a furious attack on the party, urging voters to look at Mr Palmer’s past performance in politics.

“The irony of Clive Palmer and where his money is coming from to fund this advertising campaign that is speaking about having a concern about foreign investment in Australia is quite frankly breathtaking,” Mr Albanese said.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison with Liberal member for Deakin Michael Sukkar who has a battle to retain the seat. Clive Palmer’s party is polling well there. Picture: AAP

“I think people need to be very clear about voting for these fringe parties and be clear that they won’t necessarily get what they think they’re voting for.

“We know that with these fringe parties, what has happened is that senators have been elected and then they’ve resigned, become independents, joined other parties, had all sorts of moving chairs in the Senate.

“It was hard to keep up with who was a member of where during the last term of office I’ve got to say.”

Originally published as Clive Palmer’s poll shock: Controversial mining mogul’s $30 million campaign is working