Boothby opinion poll reveals Nadia Clancy faces a challenge to unseat Nicolle Flint

Labor and activist group GetUp! have put a ton of effort into trying to topple Liberal right-winger Nicolle Flint in Boothby. So what does today’s Advertiser poll reveal?

Incumbent Liberal MP Nicolle Flint is being challenged by Labor's Nadia Clancy in the southern Hills and coast seat of Boothby. Artwork: Rebecca Fletcher

• Analysis: Everyone wants it, but is Boothby really in play?
• Mad Monday Mayo poll: Can Downer salvage family legacy?
• Mad Monday Sturt poll: Palmer’s preferences to be critical
• Policy Matchmaker quiz: Find your political perfect match

First-term Liberal Nicolle Flint is withstanding an unprecedented attack from Labor and activist group GetUp! to head for a comfortable victory in the state’s most marginal seat, an exclusive Advertiser poll finds.

In a result of potential national significance, Ms Flint leads Labor challenger Nadia Clancy by 53 per cent to 47 per cent on a two-party preferred basis — a similar result to the 2016 election despite an unfavourable boundary change.

Boothby has been considered the South Australian seat most likely to change hands at Saturday’s election but if the Advertiser/YouGov Galaxy poll of 520 voters is mirrored then the Liberals will win comfortably.

Labor has focused most of its SA campaign resources on Boothby and GetUp! has targeted Ms Flint among six “hard right wreckers” the group wants to oust, vowing to make more than 100,000 calls in the electorate.

But Ms Flint’s primary support is 47 per cent, up from 41.7 per cent at the 2016 election, meaning she is on the verge of winning the seat without relying on preferences.

Labor’s primary support has soared to 37 per cent, up from 26.9 per cent in 2016, as Ms Clancy appears to be snaring much of the former Nick Xenophon Team’s vote.

The NXT (now Centre Alliance) is not fielding a Boothby candidate, despite the electorate having produced strong results previously, including 18.5 per cent of the 2016 primary vote.

Scott Morrison is easily beating Bill Shorten by 49 per cent to 36 per cent as preferred prime minister in the poll, taken on May 9 in the aftermath of Mr Shorten’s tearful expression of love for his mother, considered a key campaign moment.

Despite Labor attacking Ms Flint for her support for Peter Dutton during Malcolm Turnbull’s implosion as prime minister in September last year, the poll showed the issue was not likely to be a significant vote-changer.

Almost 30 per cent said replacing Mr Turnbull with Mr Morrison had made them more likely to vote Liberal, while 34 per cent said they were less likely, 33 per cent said it had no influence and 4 per cent were uncommitted.

This contrasted with The Advertiser’s poll on April 24 in the eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt, where Liberal candidate James Stevens is hoping to take over from retiring MP Christopher Pyne, which found 40 per cent were less likely to vote Liberal after the leadership switch.

However, the Boothby poll found 37 per cent were less likely to vote Labor because of the party’s proposed changes to franking credits and capital gains tax, while 24 per cent said they were more likely to vote Labor, 32 per cent said it had no influence and 7 per cent were uncommitted.

This suggests Labor’s proposals are more likely to cost the party votes in Boothby than the Liberals will lose from switching from Mr Turnbull to Mr Morrison.

In Sturt, 46 per cent said they were less likely to vote Labor as a result of these franking credits and capital gains tax changes.

Advertiser analysis published last month showed almost 6 per cent of Sturt voters and 5 per cent in Boothby were likely to have benefited from discounts on capital gains tax, a higher rate than all other electorates.

Coalition analysis published last November showed 7570 people in Boothby would be affected by Labor’s proposal to axe cash refunds on franked dividends for individuals and some superannuation funds — the so-called retirees tax.

The Boothby poll suggests Labor’s franking credits plan might cost the party votes in some important seats on Saturday, a potential blow in a tight election.

FEDERAL ELECTION PODCAST: PYNE & ELLIS