Shock report says Gold Coast will run of land for housing in less than five years

A shock new study claims the Gold Coast will run out of land for new housing development far sooner than previously predicted.

A STUDY has concluded that in contrast to official forecasts, the Gold Coast could run out of new land for housing within five years.

The prediction is opposite to projections saying greenfield land within the Gold Coast will provide land for between 32,000 and 45,000 new homes, including townhouses and apartments, by 2041.

David Ransom, of Zone Planning, yesterday said that his consultancy teamed with BIOME Consulting, Matusik Property Insights and Zone Landscape Architecture in an exhaustive site-by-site study into the greenfield land supply for housing.

The study followed a southeast Queensland Regional Plan report in 2017 and two State Government reports in 2018 and 2019 into the capacity of greenfield land to cater for housing up to 2041.

David Ransom from Zone Planning Group. Picture: Jerad Williams.

“We set out to determine the economic reality and likelihood of the predicted dwelling yields being delivered by 2041,” Mr Ransom said.

“We determined that the greenfield areas could, in theory, accommodate up to 22,673 dwellings up to 2041.

“The bottom line as we see it, however, is that in these greenfield areas, the number of dwellings with a medium-to-high probability of being built by 2041 is only 11,000.

“That figure, based on recent population growth rates on the Gold Coast, is 4.5 years of supply.”

Mr Ransom said the research undertaken to prepare the supply report included looking at every holding zoned residential in greenfield areas under the 2016 Gold Coast City Plan.

Also examined was whether environmental constraints might prevent or reduce development potential.

“We then set out to align the City Plan’s aspirations with market realities and assigned low, medium and high probabilities to all sites.

“The conclusion reached is that large areas have environmental constraints that prevent their development.

“There also are assumptions that high-rises will be built at Coomera by 2041 but that is unlikely to happen.”

An aerial view of the proposed Pacific View Estate at Worongary. Picture: Tim Marsden.

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Mr Ransom said there were options to rectify a looming potential new-land crisis.

He said one was to expand the city’s urban footprint by zoning more land for residential use and another was to realign allowable densities within the existing footprint with market realities.

“Other options include checking the accuracy of environmental constraints and increasing densities within the established infill areas of the city,” he said.

Mr Ransom said a large proportion of the greenfield land that could be used for housing was in a few sites, such as the yet-to-be developed Pacific View estate at Worongary, the Polaris land at Coomera, and Calypso Bay at Jacobs Well.