Oil reheated: Caulfield race-by-race analysis with Michael Manley
Godolphin youngster Hilo has form analyst Michael Manley’s tick of approval but trainers David Hayes and Danny O’Brien look poised to stand tall on Caulfield Cup Day. BEST BETS, RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS
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Leading form analyst Michael Manley recommends punters ignore Hilo’s previous run where he drifted too far back from his wide draw in Caulfield Guineas Prelude.
Instead, Manley says the Gothic Stakes presents a great opportunity for Hilo to return to the winners’ list and hasn’t hesitated in making him his best bet.
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CAULFIELD CUP DAY
Gates open: 10.30am
First race: 12.15pm
Last race: 5.50pm
Weather: 16C showers
BEST BET
HILO (R3, No. 3)
VALUE BET
DESERT LORD (R8, No. 9)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,3/2,3,7,9/2,3,4,5,8/2,3,4,7,8,12,13
$100 flexi for 47.61%
BIG 6
3,5/2,7,8,13/4/2,4,9/3,12,14,16,18/1,7,8
$100 flexi for 27.77%
BEST EXOTIC: QUADDIE
Race 7: 4,7,10
Race 8: 2,4,9
Race 9: 1,3,6,7,11,12,13,14,16,18
Race 10: 1,7,8,11
$100 flexi for 27.77%
QUINNY’S TIPS: RAIDER UP FOR CUP CHALLENGE
SUPERCOACH FORM GUIDE: BEWARE WARNING SIGNS
WEEKEND BEST BETS: FAST LANE TO VICTORY
RACE 1: 12.15PM KENO CLASSIC HCP (1700M)
Former English stayer STARCASTER (3) who has trialled well for Anthony Freedman over 1190m at Cranbourne. ARCTIC SHOCK (7) has been racing consistently and from barrier one will take beating.
THE TRAINER: DANNY O’BRIEN
GRINZINGER STAR (No. 1): “He’s a talented horse fitter for his first up run and he’s a real chance.” EXTREME PRIDE (No. 9): “She’s aiming for four in a row. She’ll race on speed and be hard to beat.”
BET: STARCASTER each-way (Confidence: 7/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Starcaster $6.50-$4.60 ($500 @ $6.50, $1,000 @ $5.50)
RACE 2: 12.50PM QMS MEDIA PLATE (1400M)
PRETTY BRAZEN (3) unleashed the fastest closing sectionals for the day when she exploded away to win at Bendigo. She’s been well backed from $4.80 t0 $3.40. STAY GOLD (5) was beaten by an older mare last start.
THE TRAINER: DANNY O’BRIEN
STAY GOLD (No. 5): “She’s a talented filly. She’ll be hard to beat.” NEED NEW FRIENDS (No. 10): “No luck last start at Bendigo. She’ll run well.”
BET: PRETTY BRAZEN the win (Confidence: 9/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Ready Set Sail $10-$7.50-$8; Pretty Brazen $4.80-$3.30 ($622 @ $4.20, $500 @ $4.20, $3,000 @ $3.60)
RACE 3: 1.25PM GOTHIC STAKES (1400M)
HILO (3) will find this easier than last start sixth in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude where he had to drift back too far. From barrier four he should get an ideal run on the speed. HEIRBORN (1) has fought hard to win both of his starts.
THE TRAINER: JAMES CUMMINGS
“He ran into some very good three-year-olds in the Guineas Prelude and didn’t disgrace himself. We know he’s a horse with a lot going for him and back to Listed company here should see him be competitive.”
BET: HILO the win (Confidence: 9/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Hilo $4.60-$4 ($500 @ $4)
RACE 4: 2PM CAULFIELD CLASSIC (2000M)
MIAMI BOUND (9) is a promising staying filly who is crying for 2000m. Things didn’t work out for her last start when she finished third in the Edward Manifold Stakes. The Maher/Eustace trained THOUGHT OF THAT (7) demolished his rivals to win at Donald by eight lengths.
THE TRAINER: DANNY O’BRIEN
MIAMI BOUND (No. 9): “’I’ve been waiting to see her over 2000m which she’ll thrive at and I think she’ll beat the boys.”
BET: MIAMI BOUND the win (Confidence: 9/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Warning $5-$4.40 ($500 @ $5, $2,000 @ $4.40, $800 e/w @ $4.40/$1.70); Thought Of That $5-$4.40
RACE 5: 2.35PM ALINGHI STAKES (1100M)
SOOTHING (3) is a classy mare who proved too good at Morphettville last start at stakes level after Group 3 second placing at Rosehill. She finished third in this race last year. Gai Waterhouse’s VINICUNCA (5) has been trialling well. PROPHET’S THUMB (4) was a strong winner last start at Caulfield.
THE TRAINER: DAVID HAYES
VICTORY KINGDOM (No. 8) “She’s racing well. We’ve put a barrier blanket on her to help her jump and if she jumps well she’ll be in the finish.”
BET: SOOTHING the win (Confidence: 7/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Demerara $4.60-$5-$4.40 ($2,000 @ $5)
RACE 6: 3.10PM ETHEREAL STAKES (2000M)
This is a key trial for the VRC Oaks. The Price/Kent filly CONTRITION (13) strolled in at Kyneton to win her maiden. GAMAY (8) covered ground at Flemington when second to CELESTIAL FALLS (2). Winx’s relation VEGAS JEWEL (7) could be a star.
THE TRAINER: DAVID HAYES
FIORENTE’S GIRL (No. 12) “She’s progressing nicely and being by Fiorente the 2000m will suit her.”
BET: CONTRITION each-way (Confidence: 6.5/10)
RACE 7: 3.45PM CAULFIELD SPRINT (1000M)
If MISS LEONIDAS (4) can follow on from her last start second behind Nature Strip in the Group 1 Moir Stakes she’ll be hard to beat and she’ll love barrier one. Three-year-old colt MCLAREN (10) resumes and Team Snowden have targeted this race. CRYSTAL DREAMER (1) flies under the radar.
THE TRAINER: SHAUN DWYER
MISS LEONIDAS (No. 4): “Her two runs this time in have been the best of her career. If she can jump and use barrier one she’ll take catching.
BET: MISS LEONIDAS the win (Confidence: 9/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: God Of Thunder $5-$4.60 ($1,000 @ $5)
RACE 8: 4.30PM MOONGA STAKES (1400M)
DESERT LORD (9) boasts strong Sydney form over 1400m. Two starts ago he finished third behind two subsequent Group 1 winners in Kolding and Fierce Impact at Randwick. Big watch on Godolphin’s ROYAL MEETING (2) who has had two starts for two wins including a Group 1 win at his last start. STREETS OF AVALON (4) loves this track and distance.
THE TRAINER: PHILLIP STOKES
TERBIUM (No. 5): “Forget his last start. I’m keen to try him over 1400m as I’m setting him for the Flemington Greys’ race.”
BET: DESERT LORD THE WIN (CONFIDENCE: 8.5/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS:Variation $11-$8.50; Desert Lord $5.50-$5 ($1,000 @ $5)
RACE 9: 5.15PM CAULFIELD CUP (2400M)
VOW AND DECLARE (14) put in a slashing trial for this with his fourth in the Turnbull Stakes last start. Drops in weight and extra distance suits. Query runner is the Japanese stayer MER DE GLACE (3) who has won his last five starts. Caulfield winners this week THE CHOSEN ONE (16) and WOLFE (18) are big chances.
THE TRAINER: DANNY O’BRIEN
VOW AND DECLARE (No. 14) “I couldn’t be happier with him. He put in a great trial for this in the Turnbull and he’s in better shape, better suited over 2400m and drops in weight.”
CONFIDENCE: VOW AND DECLARE EACH-WAY (8/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Mer De Glace $8-$7.50; Constantinople $9-$8.50 ($690 @ $9); Vow And Declare $11-$9 ($2,500 @ $11, $605 @ $10)
RACE 10: 5.50PM TRISTARC STAKES (1400M)
POHUTUKAWA (7) finished off strongly for second last start at Flemington. She’ll be ready to fire third up. Queensland mare BACCARAT BABY (8) ran well during the Queensland winter in similar company. INVINCIBELLA (1) and ANGELIC RULER (11) also strong chances.
THE TRAINER: JAMES CUMMINGS
POHUTUKAWA (7): “She looks like she’s ready to reproduce the form she showed in Brisbane where she acquitted herself well.”
SAVATIANO (6): “I think Caulfield will suit her better. On paper there isn’t a lot between them.”
SUGGESTED BET: POHUTUKAWA EACH-WAY (8/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS:Pohutukawa $4.60-$4.80-$4.60 ($520 @ $4.80)
Originally published as Oil reheated: Caulfield race-by-race analysis with Michael Manley