Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass: Royal Randwick

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and the Sportsman’s Shayne O’Cass analyse all nine races at Royal Randwick, which features the Christmas Classic and glamour mare Alizee.

Hugh Bowman returns to scale after piloting Deprive to a memorable victory after a sensational piece of riding on Villiers Stakes Day.

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and the Sportsman’s Shayne O’Cass analyse all nine races at Royal Randwick, which features the Christmas Classic and glamour mare Alizee.

RAY THOMAS BEST BETS

BEST BET: DEPRIVE (Race 8 No. 2)

NEXT BEST: ASTERIUS (Race 5, No. 3)

SHAYNE O’CASS BEST BETS

BEST BET: YITANI SYNERGY (Race 1, No. 12)

NEXT BEST: BERDIBEK (Race 7, No. 6)

THE EARLY OIL: MOONEE VALLEY

TOP PICKS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

RACE WATCH: ROYAL RANDWICK

R1: MEMBERSHIP HCP (1000M)

Ray Thomas: I don’t think there is much between the debutantes Yitai Synergy and Iconic Star on their impressive trial efforts but Yitai Synergy has the better barrier so I have a slight leaning to her. She has the speed to take advantage of her inside gate and can be in the controlling position. Iconic Star has so much early speed she could cross and lead here. She will take some catching. Of the others, Exceed The Stars has ability and I thought Giselle Anne was strong through the line to win a Hawkesbury trial.

O’Cass: A $2 million race to start the day RT. Really? Well, in effect it is because Yitani Synergy — whom I have backed to win the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast on January 12 — will need to win this and be impressive too if she is going to be any chance. The dogs are barking her name off those trials. She’s got Sebring and Rory’s Jester in her pedigree and you can’t half tell by looking at her. Drawn to win now out of box 2. That said, I am terrified of the Kris Lees first starter Iconic Star. She is by the boom sire Brazen Beau and her trial was out of this world. Exceed The Stars started favourite in the Breeders’ Plate for good reason — he is good colt.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Yitai Synergy $3.50-$2.50 ($1,000 @ $3.50, $1,000 @ $3, $500 @ $3, $700 @ $2.90, $400 @ $2.90, $1,500 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.80, $583 @ $2.70, $2,000 @ $2.50, $1,000 @ $2.50, $500 @ $2.50, $350 @ $2.50, $200 @ $2.50 MULTIPLE TIMES)

R2: TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1100M)

Thomas: Risk And Reward was trapped three-wide without cover in a speed battle for the lead before tiring to run sixth behind the promising Sei Stella at Randwick when resuming. He is fitter now, drawn ideally in barrier two and definitely worth another chance. Shayno, Invincible Tammy and Manzana finished ahead of Risk And Reward last start so they both must be considered. Equal Balance has an awkward draw and wide barrier but if he has any luck in running he can win this race.

O’Cass: The Sei Stella Highway is the form race for this week’s renewal. She, the winner, got all the favours, so we have to mark ‘up’ the efforts of some of the beaten brigade starting off with Invincible Tammy from the Kosciuszko-winning John Shelton camp. She has come back in great style and has drawn nicely in barrier 5. Risk And Reward has only had nine starts and this is his fifth straight Highway. He is yet to run a bad race in any of them and Saturday will be no different. Manzana is a chance on his fourth in the Sei Stella race and will appreciate the firmer going on offer.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Andy’s A Star $8-$5.50

Joshua Parr and Sweet Deal combine to win the TAB Rewards Handicap.

R3: EVENTS BY ATC HCP (1400M)

Thomas: Bondi, a runner-up in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes last season, has only had two runs since and his first-up effort the Wyong Magic Millions when he beat all but Problem Solver indicates he has returned in very good form. Shayno, he’s always had ability and this might be Bondi’s chance to realise that potential this summer. Sweet Deal was scratched from the Belle of the Turf Stakes at Gosford on Friday to be reserved for this race. She also looks well placed after her strong wins at Rosehill over 1300m and 1400m. Redouble is ready to win and one day luck in running will go Drachenfels’s way and he will get away with a race like this.

O’Cass: Remember New Universe’s Aussie debut Ray? It was awesome but he’s lost a few off the caravan in the time since. His problem is that he is very one dimensional in that he needs a fast tempo, a fair track and a clear run but when the stars align, no pun intended, we could see the X-factor that he once had. At the $8, he is a good bet. Ditto pretty much all of that for Redouble. He doesn’t win often but he never fails to clock some tidy sectionals. Up to Hugh Bowman now. Sweet Deal is a mare in form.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bondi $4.20-$3 ($800 @ $4.20, $400 @ $3.40)

R4: VALE JOHN MARSHALL HCP (1400M)

Thomas: Fuchu needs to make the transition from the provincials to Sydney Saturday class but have you seen his last two wins, mate? He’s a promising galloper with a powerful finish and is the value runner. Mister Songman, coming off minor placings at Rosehill and Randwick, is ready to win, particularly if he gets control in front. Good Weather and Generalissimo will be competitive.

O’Cass: Generalissimo is a Group 3 winner at this track and distance which is a good enough starting point for me. On top of that, he is down in class and the way the weights are configured here, he doesn’t seem too badly off with the 59.5kg. Just needs some luck from the rails draw but Jason Collett is the leading jockey at Randwick the last 12 months. Fuchu was born to be a Randwick horse! He has used his huge finish to win his last two and I agree RT I can only see him flashing late again. Shock Alert and Nikkas ‘N’ A Twist are the trial horses.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mister Songman $2.20-$2-$1.80 ($500 @ $2, $1,250 @ $1.80, $1,000 @ $1.80)

Nikkas ‘N’ A Twist $26-$31-$23 ($600 x $800 e/w @ $31/$6, $200 e/w @ $23/$4.80)

Brenton Avdulla drives Asterius to victory in the #Theraces Handicap in June.

R5: HYLAND BOXING DAY SALE HCP (1800M)

Thomas: Asterius, an on-track drifter second-up when he closed late for third to Reflectivity and Turnberry over 1500m, has been improved by recent racing and is up to a suitable 1800m trip. The grey tends to get back in his races so I’m not overly concerned by the wide barrier. Live And Free has struggled to find form this time in including his eighth toSky Boyand Fierce Impact at Rosehill. The winner and runner-up have since won the Villiers Stakes and Summer Cup respectively. Live And Free is worth another chance. Turnberry will put himself on speed and prove very hard to beat. So You Win is fitter now.

O’Cass: Zip A Dee Doo Dah was $10 when he won the Kempsey Cup and you could make a case that he has been unlucky in his two city runs after that. The former Singaporean has won at 1900m and 2000m so the 1800m at this stage of the campaign is made to order for him and he may be handier from the soft draw too. The value in the race is the topweight Collateral who I am certain is going better than the form guide would suggest. He is third-up now and at a suitable trip. He’s the only horse with a rating in the 80s in the line-up. Asterius is easy to find, no knock, he might just run over the top I agree.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Asterius $4.60-$4.80-$4.60 ($300 @ $4.80, $250 @ $4.60)

R6: CHRISTMAS CLASSIC (1200M)

Thomas: Looking forward to seeing Alizee back at the races, Shayno. I remember her first-up win in the Light Fingers Stakes back in the autumn when she was so outstanding. Her recent trials have been brilliant and she is a class above her rivals. Fell Swoop returned to the winner’s list in the Razor Sharp Stakes last start and he is a very genuine sprinter. Problem Solver is fit and in winning form while Melbourne sprinter Husson Eagle was very good first-up at Flemington and he is capable the Sydney way of going.

O’Cass: When was the last time we saw a dual Group 1 winner racing at this time of the year? Even someone with your encyclopaedic knowledge you might struggle with that one RT. Everything I have seen from her at the trials suggests she is flying and I reckon her Queen of the Turf win her at her last start was one of the Group 1 wins of the season. Big weight but so classy. Matty Dale has worked miracles to get the inaugural Everest runner Fell Swoop back to where he is having won the Razor Sharp. His 106 is a big rating, drawn well — have to respect him. My Favourite ran poorly behind Fell Swoop last time but I am putting that down to the wet track.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Alizee $2.40-$2.25 ($500 @ $2.25 TWICE, $350 @ $2.25, $300 @ $2.25 TWICE, $270 @ $2.25)

Fell Swoop $4-$3.80

Deductions Savvan 7c Win 7c Place

R7: TAB REWARDS HCP (1600M)

Thomas: Reflectivity and Gresham to run 1-2. I’ve got Reflectivity on top after his tough win over Turnberry and Asterius over the Rosehill 1500m course and he get into this race with only 50.5kg after Brock Ryan’s 3kg claim. But Gresham is a big danger. He hasn’t been beaten far in two Rosehill runs since resuming and is stepping out to a distance where he usually excels. Tip Top won well over the Randwick mile course and Berdibek is at big odds but his first-up run was very encouraging.

O’Cass: I have been closely monitoring Berdibek since he got to John O’Shea’s from France where he has Listed and G3 from albeit over 2000m and 2500m. RT, I know you spotted him too first-up and felt that maybe he wants more ground right away. I acknowledge that point but look at his weight! He’s never carried 50.5kg before or even close to it and like I said, he’s a Group horse at home second-up off a big run. Vaucluse Bay will appreciate the firmer track, he’s in good nick. Tip Top is a last start winner, Gresham is ready to peak.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

Repeat performance? Hugh Bowman drives Deprive to victory in the Summer Racing Handicap.

R8: ATC HANDICAP (1200M)

Thomas: Deprive, aided by an absolutely brilliant Hugh Bowman ride, turned imminent defeat into an improbable win over the Randwick 1100m course two weeks ago. His finishing speed was very impressive and getting to 1200m third-up, and on a drying surface … he ticks a lot of boxes, Shayno. Kapajack was trapped off the track at Warwick Farm last week and wasn’t suited by the heavy conditions. He has drawn inside Deprive, he will get the run of the race and with his lightweight, he will be very competitive. Junglized is improving and Poetic Charmer is in rare form.

O’Cass: I’m hoping trainer John O’Shea can win the last three legs of the Quaddie today, RT. To use one of your phrases, he has the “barnstorming” Southern Lad going around here with the in-form Robbie Dolan on top as he was when horse and rider won at Canterbury last start. Southern Lad just needs a clear run. I’m with you in regards to Hugh Bowman’s ride on Deprive last start — wow, it might have been his best ride all year. Drawn better this time, no reason why he can’t do it again. I know you like him. Poetic Charmer is an up and comer.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Deprive $2.50 unchanged ($500 @ $2.50, $300 @ $2.50, $200 @ $2.50)

R9: SUMMER RACING HCP (1200M)

Thomas: Zonk has been tested in two solid barrier trials and is primed to sprint well fresh today. She has a very good first-up record and is well placed after the claim. She has been costly to punters at times but she’s good value in the closer. Shayno, I concede the O’Shea-trained Savvan is the one to beat. She ran on very strongly late when third to Star Reflections over 1200m here two weeks ago when resuming and has never missed a place at her second run back from a spell. Zizzis is a lightweight chance and Clipper, who is in foal to Astern, won well at Scone first-up and in fast time.

O’Cass: It might pay to keep an ear out on what Glenn Munsie says about how the market handles Fox Swift because all the smarties were on when she won on the Kensington track first-up. John O’Shea gave her an easy trial behind Alizee the other day but I saw enough to get in behind her here bearing in mind she drew the outside gate when she won last time. O’Shea dodged Alizee in the Classic to run here with Savvan. Good move and the trainer can quinella this race. Clipper was great at Scone.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

BARRIERS

The best barriers at Royal Randwick for the last 3 years (in order of most wins)

1000m: 2,6,5,4

1100m: 5,6,1,2

1200m: 3,6,1,2

1400m: 4.6,1,2

1600m: 6,1,7,8

1800m: 1,2,4,5

THE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

Race 1: Yitai Synergy $3.50-$2.10 with bets of $1,000 at $3.50, $1,000 at $3, $500 at $3, $700 at $2.90, $400 at $2.90, $1,500 at $2.80, $500 at $2.80, $583 at $2.70, $2,000 at $2.50, $1,000 at $2.50, $500 at $2.50, $350 at $2.50, $200 at $2.50 multiple times.

Race 2: Andy’s A Star $8-$5.50

Race 3: Bondi $4.20-$3 with bets of $800 at $4.20, $400 at $3.40.

Race 4: Mister Songman $2.20-$2-$1.80 with bets of $500 at $2, $1,250 at $1.80, $1,000 at $1.80, Nikkas ‘N’ A Twist $26-$31-$23 with bets of $600/$800 e/w at $31/$6, $200 e/w at $23/$4.80.

Race 5: Asterius $4.60-$4.80-$4.60 with bets of $300 at $4.80, $250 at $4.60.

Race 6: Alizee $2.40-$2.25 after wagers including $500 at $2.25 twice, $350 at $2.25, $300 at $2.25 twice, $270 at $2.25, Fell Swoop $4-$3.80.

Race 7: No big bets or market movements of note

Race 8: Deprive $2.50 unchanged with bets of $500 at $2.50, $300 at $2.50, $200 at $2.50.

Race 9: No big bets or market movements of note

EARLY QUADDIE

Race 2: 1,3,5,8

Race 3: 2,3,8

Race 4: 3,5,9

Race 5: 2,3,6,8

Suggested bet: $20

Bet percentage: 10.41%

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1,2,8

Race 7: 3,6,7,8

Race 8: 4,5,12,14

Race 9: 1,2,13

Suggested bet $20

Bet percentage: 10.41%

PRICE CHECK

Giselle Anne (race 1) is a daughter of super sire Snitzel and has shown natural ability at the barrier trials. She was ridden out to beat Royal Banquet by just under a length in a recent Hawkesbury trial but they gapped the rest by nearly five lengths. Giselle Anne ran a good closing sectional in that trial to add merit to her effort. Drawn nicely today and way over the odds at $41.

TRIAL POINTERS

Yitai Synergy (race 1) is a filly from the first crop of Horse of the Year Dissident out of a Lonhro mare. Her next two dams are by the Golden Slipper winners, Danzero and Rory’s Jester which accounts for her speed and precocity. The Peter and Paul Snowden trained two-year-old has already been well backed to take out the $2m Magic Millions Classic (1200m) at the Gold Coast on January 12 but needs to win today to make the field. Her two trials, both wins, have been outstanding which has led to the boom that is on her ahead of her debut.

Nikkas ‘N’ A Twist (race 4) is a grey gelding trained at Gosford by Kylie Gavenlock who bagged a double at Newcastle on Boxing Day. One of this horse’s part-owners is Greg Bennett. Nikkas ‘N’ A Twist is yet to figure in the placings in his four fresh runs but could easily turn that statistic around today given his impressive trial win in a four-horse 1200m heat at home 11-days ago. Has done the work for 1400m first-up and has Corey Brown in the saddle.

WORK WHISPERS

Asterius (race 5) is a Chris Waller trained gelding who can round out another very successful year for leading syndicator Denise Martin with a win this afternoon. This son of Martin’s own Golden Slipper winner Sebring was an eye-catcher first-up over 1200m at Rosehill last month then was closing off fast again there to finish third over 1500m. The step up to 1800m is perfect. Asterius worked with New Universe over 1000m on Christmas Day timed in 1.10.7s, last 400m in 24.4s and a final 200m in 12s.

Rodrico (race 4) is an interesting runner at Royal Randwick today. Originally with Murray Baker and Andrew Foresman in NZ, this son High Chaparral -who delivered the camp’s Triple Crown winner Dundeel - is now with Murray’s son Bjorn at Warwick Farm. Rodrico has twice finished behind stablemate and race rival Shock Alert in his two trials and his work has been first rate too including on Tuesday morning when he worked on the A Grass over 1400m in an unhurried 1.38.15s, final 400m in 25.06s and a 12.20s last 200m.

THE BEST BET

Deprive (race 8) unleashed an impressive burst of acceleration to weave through the field and power past his rivals to win over 1100m at Randwick on a soft track two weeks ago. He is even better on top of the ground and 1200m suits. Drawn well and should be able to settle closer to the leaders. Promising sprinter who can win again.

BEST VALUE

Fuchu (race 4) has showed admirable determination to score two powerful wins at the provincials in recent weeks. He deserves his chance in Sydney Saturday grade and will be suited by the big Randwick track. This is a step up in grade but at $10 he is good each way value.

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SATURDAY’S BEST

BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS: SCONE

BEST BET: MAGIC CHARLEE (Race 3, No. 6)

A first starter from the powerful Kris Lees camp who clocked up his 100th winner for the season at Coffs Harbour on Thursday. This Magic Albert filly has trialled four times dating back to August, the last one at Gosford was her best.

NEXT BEST: POULTON LE SANDS (Race 5, No. 10)

Swept down the middle of the Scone track to win over the mile last start under Greg Ryan. Mitchell Bell goes on today but the modus operandi will no be doubt be the same again.

VALUE BET: LIFETIME QUEST (Race 2, No. 5)

Lifetime Quest is another Lees debutante, this one a Gooree owned and bred daughter of Exceed And Excel from one of their best families. Three trials heading into this. Go well on all of them.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW: ROBERT THOMPSON

No jockey in this country has ridden more winners that the Hall Of Famer Robert Thompson and the mild mannered master can add a few more to the tally today.

BEST EXOTIC: QUADDIE

Race 5: 10,12

Race 6: 4,7,13,14

Race 7: 1,2,5,9

Race 8: 1,5,7,11

BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS: LISMORE

BEST BET: TYCOON ROSSA (Race 4, No. 3)

Has only won the 2 from 23 but one of those was here at Lismore and he was just on their heels last time he raced at the venue last Saturday. Gets every chance.

NEXT BEST: VIN ROUGE (Race 3, No. 7)

Vin Rouge is a 3YO filly taking on the older horses but it is wafer thing line-up and she has the light weight given her circumstances. Lightly-raced type who has done enough to warrant top pick.