The Early Oil: Chris Vernuccio looks at The Valley program

Smart sprinter Our Luca can continue his love affair with The Valley when he chases a fourth consecutive win at racing’s cauldron, according to leading form analyst Chris Vernuccio.

Smart sprinter Our Luca can continue his love affair with The Valley when he chases his fourth consecutive win at racing’s cauldron, according to leading form analyst Chris Vernuccio.

Fresh from a decisive victory at The Valley just two weeks ago when he kicked away at the turn and was never going to be run down, The Nooch reckons the five-year-old can repeat that performance from his inside gate.

The weight relief from apprentice Stephanie Thorton just adds to Vernuccio’s enthusiasm for Our Luca.

Vernuccio has made it his best bet, but punters will have to wait until the final race at 5.50pm.

TOP PICKS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEST BET

OUR LUCA (Race 9, No.3)

VALUE BET

SYMPHONETTE (Race 3, No.3)

EARLY QUADDIE

2,3,4,6,9,10 / 1,3,5,9 / 3,4,10 / 5,11

$100 flexi for 69.44 per cent

BIG 6

3,10 / 5,11 / 4,5 / 1,7,10 / 1,6,9 / 2,3

$100 flexi for 69.44 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 3,4,5,8

Race 7: 1,5,7,10

Race 8: 1,6,9,12

Race 9: 2,3

$100 flexi for 78.12 per cent

RACE 1 (12.45PM): PUNTERS.COM.AU PLATE (1200M)

Two-year-old YES YES YES (1) can book his ticket for the Magic Millions on the Gold Coast if he runs well again here. At Flemington he beat ABSOLUTE FLIRT (10) and THREE LEGS IN (9) comfortably and should have that pair covered again. Absolute Flirt’s form ties with ALBURQ (2), who ran third in the Clockwise Classic at Ballarat. Three Legs In led up the straight on the debut, which is never easy. There are six debutants. Godolphin colt CATHARS (4) led and won a Flemington jump out under a hold. Tony McEvoy’s PRETTY BRAZEN (12) wasn’t asked to do much in a separate jump out.

BET: YES YES YES the win

RACE 2 (1.20PM): THE JUNCTION CLUB HANDICAP (1600M)

This BM64 race doesn’t hold a lot of appeal and thankfully it’s early on the program. MAHIS ANGEL (6) drops back from a BM70 at Flemington where he finished 2 1/2 lengths behind Phoneme after a decent first-up win at the Valley. ZOU YORK (4) is a narrow last-start winner at Sandown Hillside over 1500m and also has form around Phoneme. WELCOME STRYKER (10) and CALENDAR LAD (2) finished around two lengths behind Zou York. LYNCH MOB (9) and PRITCHETT (7) finished alongside each other caulfield behind Miss Skeptical. CHAIRMAN’S CHOICE (8) broke his maiden on a Heavy 9 at Geelong.

BET: MAHIS ANGEL each-way

RACE 3 (1.55PM): $99 SUMMER MEMBERSHIP HANDICAP (1200M)

A challenging 3YO fillies race to dissect. SYMPHONETTE (3) had no option but to settle in the back half of the field at Pakenham but did run the best last 800m, 600m, 400m and 200m, including the fastest last furlong of the meeting, to finish a close third to Star Fall, who won again on Boxing Day. She’s drawn barrier eight here but the intent should be to go forward. Big-striding SORA (9) ran her rivals off their legs at the Valley. On debut, she ran third to My Pendant. FIRST DIAMOND (1) beat Behemoth twice last prep. She won easily in her return at Gawler. JAY JAY D’AR (5) showed sustained closing speed when third at Sandown Hillside after getting too far back. IRRESISTIBLE GIRL (7) ran second in the same race.

BET: SYMPONETTE each-way

RACE 4 (2.30PM): LADBROKES HANDICAP (1000M)

CRACK THE CODE (10) and PRIVATE LOUNGE (3) are the unknowns in an otherwise even BM70 1000m sprint. Mick Price’s Crack The Code was last seen in a Group 3 at Morphettville in May in only her second career start (beaten five lengths) after winning on debut. The three-year-old filly takes on the older mares here but her jump outs have looked solid and Damien Oliver on board is a good sign. Private Lounge returns after more than 12 months. The five-year-old mare suffered a shoulder injury but connections haven’t rushed her recovery. She won like a future star on Kyneton Cup Day by five lengths before the injury setback. She’ll settle back from barrier 11. FREEZE OVER (4) and OUR GLADIATOR (1) are last-start winners.

BET: CRACK THE CODE each-way

RACE 5 (3.10PM): DEAN & MCPHERSON CATERING HANDICAP (1600M)

Lightly-raced pair CRIMSON TEARS (5) and OCEANIX (11) stand out in an average BM70 mile race with both looking to have the most upside. Four-year-old mare Crimson Tears has gone back-to-back this prep as Darren Weir takes her through the grades. Mick Price’s filly Oceanix won his maiden by seven lengths on a Heavy 9 at Geelong. The start before she was a beaten favourite at Yarra Valley behind another decent filly Made Me Shiver. The rest are pretty even. SAVAJU (2) will prefer getting back on to a dry track and likely leader ESPOSITO GOLD (3) will find this easier than a BM84.

BET: CRIMSON TEARS each-way

Al Galayel prevailed at this track and distance last time.

RACE 6 (3.50PM): EVENTS @ THE VALLEY HANDICAP (2040M)

Tactics are sure to play a key part with just eight runners in this 2040m race. MASCULINO (4) can maintain his winning form stepping up to his optimal distance. He is better with high pressure but was able to win at Flemington off a slow tempo, which is the likely outcome again here. AL GALAYEL (5) prevailed at this track and distance last time after an excellent ride by Craig Williams. He is honest and consistent. KENTUCKY BREEZE (8) finished second to Masculino at Flemington but probably waited too long to increase the pressure mid-race. BEAUTY WAY (3) was well-backed to win at Pakenham in his Australian debut. This is a step up but his record at 2000m is sound.

BET: MASCULINO the win

RACE 7 (4.30PM): NEW YEAR’S EVE AT LEGENDS HANDICAP (2500M)

Six of the 10 runners come out of the same Flemington race with MAZAZ (1) and CHAPAL (10) the pick of them. There wasn’t much between the pair but Chapal ran quicker splits between the 1000m and 200m after getting further back in the run. They are drawn side by side here. THE GATTING BALL (6) and DIAMOND GRACE (7) were a further two lengths behind, the latter having to sustain a very long run. Diamond Grace also clocked the same last 400m as Chapal. KHARTOUM (5) beat The Gatting Ball at Pakenham before a big effort in the Pakenham Cup.

BET: CHAPAL each-way

RACE 8 (5.10PM): LADBROKES ODDS BOOST HANDICAP (1000M)

Another BM70 1000m race and this isn’t any easier. MISS NORWAY (6) may have won on protest first-up but she was running against better opposition before her spell. BELWAZI (1) has been trapped wide in both runs at the Valley this prep. His performance last time was a big improvement on his fresh run when he was vet checked pre-race. KAKANUI (3) comes out of the same race as Belwazi but didn’t possess the same finishing speed. TBILISI (9) has been kept to the shorter distances this campaign but still waiting for him to get out to at least 1200m. EL MAGNIFICENCE (12) was well-backed at Sandown Hillside but pulled up lame.

BET: MISS NORWAY each-way

Our Luca looks well placed to continue his winning run at The Valley. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 9 (5.50PM): PUNTERS.COM.AU HANDICAP (1000M)

OUR LUCA (3) is flying this campaign and chasing four consecutive wins. He was heavily backed last start and opened at a great price again. The five-year-old loves the Valley and his record at the distance is excellent. It’s hard to go past hm because he can lead or sit off the speed depending on how fast TILDY LAD (4) and ROCKET TOMMY (5) want to go. ASHLOR (2) returns from Perth after running in the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes. This is easier but it depends on how he’s coped with the return travel across the country. He also has to drop back from 1200m. THERMAL CURRENT (1) was unable to run down Our Luca last time and hard to see him doing so here from barrier 10. ESSENCE OF TERROR (7) goes well at the track and distance but rises in grade.

BET: OUR LUCA the win