Race Watch: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Royal Randwick
SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for Royal Randwick.
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SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for Royal Randwick.
PLAYS OF THE DAY
BEST BETS
Race 8 No. 4 Redouble $3 (wait until race day, hoping he gets back out after being $4.40-$3).
Race 9 No. 1 She Knows $4 (lock that in now, I think that’s a good price).
BEST VALUE
Race 1 No. 10 Mizzy $11 ($16-$10 already, happy to wait until race day now).
$100 BETTING STRATEGY
Race 1 No. 10 Mizzy $5 win and $10 place both on tote ($16-$11, does she get back out?).
Race 4 No. 5 Queen Misty $10 place at $4.40 fixed odds (only two place dividends).
Race 7 No. 1 Karavali $5 win at $7.50 fixed odds.
Race 8 No. 4 Redouble $30 win at $3.10 fixed odds.
Race 9 No. 1 She Knows $25 win at $4 fixed odds.
Race 9 No. 8 Tip Top $5 win + $10 place both on tote.
HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
THE EARLY OIL: FLEMINGTON
ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Heavy 8 Rail: Out 8m entire circuit.
Race 1: #THERACES HANDICAP (1200m) 11.35am
OVERVIEW: I’m not doubting that Marmaris is the horse to beat but the one that interests me from a betting perspective is Mizzy. I thought she was pretty good on debut despite starting $61 and she was only coming off one trial and clearly had improvement to come in the yard. She clocked an overall time .1s quicker than Thinkin’ Big on the day despite her race being run slowly early and I’m surprised by the price differential (Thinkin’ Big will like the big track though). She can only improve and at the price, I’m happy to side with her each-way. I have to risk Helaku. He seemed to have his chance two back and then beat a very ordinary field last start at Muswellbrook. The second horse has finished fifth in a Gunnedah maiden since and there has been nine subsequent starters from that race for not even one placing. Marmaris second pick just due to the price differential with Mizzy. Thinkin’ Big and Rock Zone next best.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note.
BETTING STRATEGY: Mizzy each-way. She has been $16-$11 now so I think we wait and see how the tote holds up.
Race 2: TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200m) 12.10pm
OVERVIEW: It’s hard to go past Highway Sixtysix and she has all the upside. The query is she hasn’t raced since November last year and comes here with no official trials. I spoke to Danny Williams and he said she hasn’t had a jump out or trial and has been in work 11 weeks (he normally likes 12 weeks). Having said that, Williams has a good strike rate first-up (16 per cent first-up in the last 12 months vs 16 per cent with all runners over the same period) and rates this horse quite highly. He feels she is a real Country Championships horse next year and would have been in the qualifiers for that race this year if not for a virus in the autumn. Hard Merchandise beat two subsequent winners last time out (second and fourth have both won since) and can go on, while Nicconita should appreciate a firmer track. Jounama has won two from her past three starts and the saddle slipped at the other start. She is probably outclassed here but is a rough place chance. I’ve always had time for Roman Typhoon but he is still his own worst enemy and he just does a few things wrong.
BETTING STRATEGY: Leaning to Highway Sixtysix but I want to see how she parades.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Highway Sixtysix $3-$2.60 ($500 @ $3, $750 @ $2.80).
Race 3: RANDWICK MAYOR’S CUP (1100m) 12.45pm
OVERVIEW: I wasn’t sold on Bombarding after his first win in Australia but when he backed it up last start it made me change my mind. He looks to find the front here and he should be hard to run down. Envy Of All is racing well this campaign and looks the main danger although Revenire has that proven Saturday Sydney form. I think the drying track will help him as well. His run was just as good as She Knows two back and she will go around favourite in the last race today. I want to see You Make Me Smile back up the last start win before I’m a believer, while Sparkly Star won well first-up but is only coming out of maiden grade.
BETTING STRATEGY: Bombarding to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note.
Race 4: HALF YEARLY MEMBERSHIP MILE (1600m) 1.20pm
OVERVIEW: I’m quite surprised that Wide Spread Panic is the early favourite here and I expect that to change come Saturday. She has only won a maiden and did seem to have her chance in a benchmark 65 race at Wyong last start. Touch Of Mink appears ready for the mile now. She was a good winner first-up and then only got warm the last little bit when staying at the 1400m second-up. The mile has seen her out in previous preparations (she gets a bit tired the last 50m-100m) but she should be physically stronger now. The $4.40 about Queen Misty to run top two appeals. This is her last chance for me after disappointing last start but she has trialled well since and she is much better than what she showed the other day. Her run prior was just as good as La Chica Bella’s and she gets in with just 51kg after the claim for the in-form Rachel Hunt here. She hasn’t won for a long time but she races well at Randwick. The 1600m is as far as she wants though and she seems to only have a short sprint. La Chica Bella drops in weight and should get a soft time on speed, while Medaille should appreciate a slightly better track than last start.
BETTING STRATEGY: Touch Of Mink on top or back Queen Misty at $4.40 to run top two.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note.
Race 5: WINTER RACING HANDICAP (2400m) 1.55pm
OVERVIEW: Interesting race for the stayers. I’ve got to stick with Plymouth Road now he has recaptured winning form. The soft track will be ideal and he should run along again and prove hard to catch. Nahuel is the interesting runner. His figures have been OK without setting the world alight but he drops in weight and will be much better for the run in this distance range (he was 1850m up to 2340m last start). He looks a promising type but has drawn a touch awkwardly. Only Tiger continues to race well and should have every chance again, while It’s A Silvertrail didn’t have the greatest of luck last start and the tempo was against him there as well. He is proven in this distance range.
BETTING STRATEGY: Not much between Plymouth Road and Nahuel. Quinella perhaps?
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nahuel $5-$4.80, Ombudsman $7-$6.
Race 6: TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1400m) 2.35pm
OVERVIEW: Open race this but I have to side with Oria for two reasons- one, she will be a fair way in front of her main rivals in the run and two, the $7.50 seems a decent price. Her main rivals also have to lump a bit more weight and she could be hard to run down. I was taken by Island Missile’s first-up run. His two wins have come in this distance range and the only knock is he has to lump the big weight (60kg). Seahampton looks ready now third-up. I’m convinced she will be better on top of the ground but she showed good improvement second-up and may go on with it now. A drying track will help her cause. Popular beat Oria last time out and should relish the sting out of the track again. There’s no reason she can’t repeat the dose.
BETTING STRATEGY: Oria on top at the $7.50 in a tricky race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mr Haussmann $15-$13 ($500 @ $15, $200 @ $15 TWICE).
Race 7: WALLABY CUP (1800m) 3.10pm
OVERVIEW: Tricky race. I want to stick with Karavali despite the weight rise and she just loves it here at Randwick. She has won three from four at this track and she has won over 2000m here, so the 1800m should be OK. Carzoff is first-up at 1800m but ability wise he is right there. You just have to bank on Chris Waller having him fit enough. Chatelard has come back well and he profiles pretty well here third-up. The race was run to suit him the other day but he was stuck on inferior ground first-up prior to that. Dagny struck trouble but didn’t really run out the 2000m last start so the drop back to 1800m looks ideal. Just Shine can also improve sharply.
BETTING STRATEGY: Karavali the value at $7.50.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note.
Race 8: TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1300m) 3.50pm
OVERVIEW: The early shoppers didn’t take long to snap up the $4.40 on offer about Redouble when markets opened with TAB. His two runs back have been super and he has just been crying out for this trip. He will drift back again but he should be finishing very strongly. He won third-up over 1300m last prep and then backed up seven days later to win over 1400m. He backs up from last Saturday here and now he is into $3 I would wait until race day. Best Guess is a better horse than he showed first-up where he pulled up lame. He trialled well prior and he can turn his fortunes around. Smartedge’s only soft track run resulted in a second to subsequent Group 1 winner D’Argento on debut and he is a month between runs but has been kept up to the mark with a good trial on a heavy surface. I expect him to excel on the soft surface. Oriental Runner was wide in the June Stakes and should appreciate the drop in class. He is also a month between runs. I’m against Brook Magic at 1300m and I think she is a good risk here.
BETTING STRATEGY: Redouble to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Redouble $4.40-$3.60 ($400 @ $4.40, $600 @ $4, $300 @ $4 TWICE).
Race 9: AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB SPRINT (1000m) 4.30pm
OVERVIEW: This is all about She Knows and the $4 seems a pretty good play for a filly who beat most of these last time out. She only goes up the 1kg and should relish the hot tempo here (there are several leaders and they should run this race at a quick tempo). She gets through the conditions and looks awfully hard to beat again. I can make a case for Tip Top at odds although I thought we would be getting better than $3.50 the place. Let’s hope the market forgets him on Saturday and that place price gets out on the tote. He is progressing the right way and he clocked easily the best late splits of the day first-up last prep over this trip when he flashed home to run second. Bandipur was disappointing first-up on face value but did start favourite there and could be worth another chance if the track is playing out wide (drawn off the track again). I’ll be including emergency Three Sheets in my quaddie if he gets a run. On face value, he looks outclassed but he flies fresh and his run behind Royal Tudor first-up in April last year would give him a rough hope in this. Royal Tudor came out after that and was beaten 1 ½ lengths behind Redzel at his following start. He is first-up since September but trialled well, loves wet ground and should get the speed to suit.
BETTING STRATEGY: Main bet She Knows to win. Small e/w play (mainly place) Tip Top.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: She Knows $4.60-$4 ($800 @ $4.60, $400 @ $4.60).
TURF TALK
Ray Thomas and Matt Jones discuss their best bets for the weekend.
MJ: G’day mate, it’s less than 100 days until The Everest. What do you think will happen if Nature Strip wins again at Flemington tomorrow?
RT: I know there’s at least two slot holders very interested in what Nature Strip does in the Creswick Stakes. If he ticks that 1200m box on Saturday and wins easily, I think he could be in The Everest by Monday. Would you pick him if you owned a slot.
MJ: Only if he ‘donkey licks’ them. But he’s an exciting prospect. I’m still hoping In Her Time comes good and wins because I’ve had something on her a while ago. Let’s look at Randwick. What’s your best of the day?
RT: I’m keen on Redouble. I thought his run over 1100m at Rosehill last week was super. He’s on the quick back-up and out to 1300m on Saturday. He’s ready to win.
MJ: I agree he’s in top form and I would have backed him too but Matthew Smith’s import Invictus Prince looks like an exciting prospect. Normally I’d like to see these new arrivals have a run first but his trials were too good to ignore so I’ll take him at the odds. I’m also banking on She Knows to get us out of any trouble in the last.
RT: Invictus Prince is probably the most interesting runner all day. He was bred by the Queen, did you know that, Matty?
MJ: No.
RT: OK … that obviously doesn’t interest you, I’ll move on. I will say that he’s not your typical plodding European stayer. He looked very sharp in his two Sydney barrier trials and I think he’ll be charging home — hopefully running second behind Redouble.
MJ: What do you make of the two-year-old race? I’m going slightly left field and picking Albert’s No Pussy who comes off a win and was beaten by potential star Smart Melody on debut.
RT: I think Marmaris can go one better but this is a strong race. Have you heard the wraps on Thinkin Big?
MJ: He was strong on debut and any juvenile racing under the name Waterhouse has to be respected. She’ll get the best out of him.