The Early Oil: Michael Manley previews Flemington

LYRURGUS kept Choysa in his sights last start and proved far too good this track and distance, according to leading Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.

LYRURGUS kept Choysa in his sights last start and proved far too good this track and distance, according to leading Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.

Lyrurgus is up in weight but Manley says the Danny O’Brien stayer does appear to have his rivals covered ability wise.

BEST BET

LYCURGUS (Race 6, No. 4)

VALUE BET

SILENTZ (Race 8, No. 17)

EARLY QUADDIE

5/2,3,4,5/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5,6,7

$100 flexi for 89.28 per

BIG6

1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,6/4/1/8,14,17/1,4,5,7,8,11

$100 flexi for 23.14 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 2,4

Race 7: 1

Race 8: 6,8,9,14,15,16,17

Race 9: 1,4,5,7,8,9,11

$100 flexi for 102.04 per cent

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

RACE 1

MINTHA (4) sat wide and looked set for victory before being run down by CASA DE LAGO (1) at Moonee Valley last start. Mintha drops from 59kg to 57kg and meets that filly 2.5kg better. From barrier three she should get a great on speed run with Craig Williams on board. THINK DIAMONDS (9) ran on well for second in that same race. She wobbled around the turn before finishing on strongly. ELLE GAGNE (2) led and held on well for fourth. ICE GIRL (3) ran on strongly to win at Sandown Hillside last start.

SUGGESTED BET: MINTHA THE WIN

RACE 2

This looks ideal for former English stayer SIXTIES GROOVE (5). He was run down in the closing stages last Saturday at Caulfield by his talented stable mate Pacodali over 1800m. He’s not taking on any horse of that ilk in this. SECOND BULLET (6) over-raced and wasn’t a factor last start at Flemington but he’s better than that and has a good record this track and distance. BONDEIGER (2) left his bridesmaid tag behind last campaign and his first-up run on a heavy track in the Swan Hill Cup should be forgotten. Stablemate KILLARNEY KID (1) likes this track and distance and should be ready to improve after two runs back from a spell. BRIGADIER (7) fought on well to win at Moonee Valley last start and he’ll push forward from the outset.

SUGGESTED BET: SIXTIES GROOVE THE WIN

Miles Of Krishan fought hard to win this track and distance when second-up last start.

RACE 3

MILES OF KRISHAN (2) fought hard to win this track and distance when second-up last start. She drops from 56.5kg to 54kg and again should take up a forward position. HUSSY’S GLOW (4) flew home for second in the same race.,

MOONLOVER (3) is a consistent mare and should be ready for the step up to 1400m. Held up for a run before finishing on for third last start at Moonee Valley behind Eusebio. SHARING’s (5) form over summer was sound and she has a good first-up record of four starts for two wins and a second. MISS GUNPOWDER (1) is a smart mare but she has to carry a big weight.

SUGGESTED BET: MILES OF KRISHAN THE WIN

RACE 4

MOUNT KILCOY (4) was checked with 200m to go which may have cost him victory when second to REMEMBER THE NAME (3) at this track and distance last start. He finished off strongly and looks a horse going places. In the same race GAULOIS (1) sat wide throughout and hit the front half way-up the straight before she tired. Remember The Name sat off the speed and finished strongly. WOULDA THOUGHT SO (5) ran on well in the same race for fourth. MR MONEY BAGS (2) sat wide and finished fifth in that race.

SUGGESTED BET: MOUNT KILCOY THE WIN.

RACE 5

GOLDIFOX (6) came from last when she ran on strongly for second to GOOD ‘N’ FAST (1) over 1400m at Flemington last start. The extra 200m should suit on that run. Good ‘n’ Fast sat wide and took over with 100m to go for strong win. He has to contend with 59kgs though. INKSLINGER (4) is showing promise. He fought on well when second to BRITISH MEDIUM (3) over 1600m on a heavy track at Ballarat when he led throughout. PEDICEL (5) was disappointing in a small field in Sydney at his second start but he was impressive winning his debut at Canterbury. GREGORIAN CHANT (7) was strong winning over 1400m at Bendigo on a heavy track.

SUGGESTED BET: GOLDIFOX EACH-WAY

Lycurgus rises three kilos to 57kg but he’s still the one to beat. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6

LYCURGUS (4) is the in-form stayer of winter. He’s won three of his past four starts with his only loss two starts ago when he finished second to CHOYSA (5) over 2500m at Flemington when he gave away too big a start to the front runner. Damien Oliver made sure that didn’t happen last start also at Flemington when he kept him in his sights throughout the race, settling second and kicking clear at the 200m for a soft win. He rises three kilos to 57kg but he’s still the one to beat. GREY LION (2) battled on well for second behind him last start. HIGH CHURCH (1) was slightly disappointing when sixth in that race but he’s a classy stayer on his day. LA COURBETTE (8) battled away to finish third in that race. FALAGO (7) was solid when fifth in that race.

SUGGESTED BET: LYCURGUS THE WIN

Damian Lane rides Nature Strip to an emphatic victory at Flemington. Picture: AAP

RACE 7

NATURE STRIP (1) was outstanding winning his debut for Darren Weir over 1100m here recording a fast time and thrashing his rivals to win by four and a half lengths. He’s destined for better races and should go on his winning way. BEL SONIC (2) put in an uncharacteristic shocker at Moonee Valley last start when he pushed forward. He’ll revert to his preferred style of coming off the speed. Similarly SPIRIT OF AQUADA (4) was poor in that race but is much better than that. TAGREEDA (12) is a lightly raced filly with a lot of upside resuming. Stablemate SUN QUAN (6) is a consistent sprinter. EGYPTIAN BULLET (10) won this track and distance two starts ago.

SUGGESTED BET: NATURE STRIP THE WIN

RACE 8

SILENTZ (17) flew home off a not that strong tempo to win over 1600m at Flemington last start. Between the 400m and the 200m he recorded a sectional of 10.94 seconds and ran his last 400m in 22.60 seconds. He’s on the minimum weight of 54kg and will take beating. COOL CHAP (8) resumed with a second over 1400m behind OZI CHOICE (6) at Flemington. He finished second to Humidor in the Blamey Stakes over 1600m this track and distance last March then finished sixth in the Doncaster Mile at his next start which reads well for this race. GALAXY RAIDER (14) got too far back last start over 1400m but will be much better suited over 1600m. KACHING (16) has struck form and is aiming for a hat-trick.

SUGGESTED BET: SILENTZ EACH-WAY

RACE 9

Top Tassie sprinter HELLOVA STREET (1) resumes. He’s been trialling well and he has a great first-up record. He’s always hard to beat in anything he contests. DIVINE QUALITY (8) has finished second at her past four starts. Last start she fought on bravely when second to Malibu Style but she’s drawn in again down the straight. Stablemates LABUAN STAR (11) and MAN FROM UNCLE (5) ran on well to finish third and fourth respectively in that race. Another Weir runner CAMDUS (4) is also one of the chances. JUST HIFALUTIN (7) and PRINCETON SPIRIT (9) are smart horses.

SUGGESTED BET: HELLOVA STREET EACH-WAY