KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021: Cheapie Bible Round 1
Trent Copeland has revealed his cheapies to target in 2021 — but implored KFC SuperCoaches to avoid a bunch of popular players.
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It’s FINALLY here!
The first TLT has come and gone, we’ve been starved of the base-price youngsters we normally see this time of year which has forced lots to reshuffle, now we get to delve into the expected roles and lock in our teams prior to Thursday night’s first lockout.
Yes, we can all stop with the gazillion different iterations, the “If I just change this player…” only to have an unrecognisable squad an hour later.
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KFC SuperCoach is a game of strategy, picking the best point scorers (and captains) but one thing NEVER changes… the most important selections all season are CHEAPIES!
By definition a ‘cheapie’ will be referenced when under $300,000 (so no Anthony Milford, or Lachlan Lam at $310k despite him being a very good buy) and actually relevant for KFC SuperCoach purposes. Key word being relevant.
Right, enough of the waffling, strap yourselves in for the biggest article of the year!
Charlie Staines CTW | FLB (Panthers) $297,700
Do we really need to delve too deeply here? I mean, SIX tries in just over 100 minutes of action prior to the sniper striking his hammy. Given the shipping out of Josh Mansour to effectively facilitate Staines’ full time elevation to the side — and the fact the Panthers were the one of the highest scoring offences in the entire NRL — Staines slots in as No.1 for me. I mean, for large portions of last season you could easily have had a full Panthers quartet of Mansour, To’o, Crichton and Naden in your starting CTW and been above average with your output. Above base price, but upside to be a huge money maker.
VERDICT: BUY. Don’t overthink it.
Jordan Riki 2RF (Broncos) $277,500
David Fifita’s departure leaves a huge hole on the Broncos’ right edge. Kevin Walters has been talking up Riki, and the pre-season has been strong. Riki doesn’t strike me as a massive offloading or tackle busting beast, but in his two ‘big’ minute games last season Riki scored 66 points (with a try) in 48 minutes, and 54 points in the full 80 minutes in round 20. Named to start on an edge, with hopefully an 80 minute role I think Riki can be a starting 17 player and land around the $450-$500k mark which is absolute gold for KFC SuperCoaches.
VERDICT: BUY.
Daine Laurie CTW | FLB (Wests Tigers) $223,300
Already the seventh most popular player in KFC SuperCoach after his outstanding trials performance for the Tigers. Moses Mbye spent the whole pre-season training at fullback and was expected to start there with Laurie forced to bide his time, but with Moses named at five-eighth, and Laurie scoring two tries and generally looking electric in their trial against against Manly he gets first crack.
VERDICT: BUY. The only concern is the impending return of Adam Doueihi and what that means for Moses Mbye. Hopefully Doueihi slots in to the halves, and Mbye in jersey 14 to let Laurie’s freakish talent shine. Could be cheapie of the year.
Connor Watson HOK | 5/8 (Knights) $288,600
Priced at around 34PPG, and named to start at lock, Watson may well provide the best value for money purchase in all of KFC SuperCoach — health permitting. Rupturing an Achilles is no regular injury, and it will take some time to be at the peak of his powers, but one thing is for sure… When Watson is playing 50+ minutes he is a KFC SuperCoach weapon! In 2019, 40-50 minutes at a combination of hooker, fullback and lock when he joined the Knights, Watson had fives games in the 14 jersey for scores of:
38 points (26 minutes)
67 points (67 minutes)
52 points (45 minutes)
76 points (53 minutes)
45 points (39 minutes)
Good for an average of 55.6PPG in just 46 minutes for a seriously juicy 1.2PPM. That’s niiiice Gary. Given he’s starting at lock though, the upside option is the Victor Radley, Brandon Smith, Cam McInnes mould, and we’re looking at a 60-70 minute role ‘in the mixer’ where I have no doubt a 60+PPG average would be within reach. All of that is before considering injuries elsewhere — where Watson would undoubtedly be the man to benefit in-game. Either way, I think Watson could be this year’s Kurt Mann by way of cheapie success story.
VERDICT: BUY. You just have to have him at the price point. Put it this way, I’m starting Watson on-field with absolute confidence.
Tesi Niu FLB | CTW (Broncos) $232,500
The injury to Kotoni Staggs (ACL, mid-season) has locked Tesi Niu into the right centre slot, and Niu has significant room for improvement given he came off the bench in a few games last year. Trial form was a little sketchy, particularly in defence but we couldn’t care less about that for KFC SuperCoach (hopefully Kevvy Walters doesn’t either!). The talent is undoubtedly there, it’s a combination of health and the Broncos actually scoring some points that he needs to overcome.
VERDICT: BUY. I’m on. At $230k you really can’t pass up the upside.
Bailey Simonsson CTW | FLB (Raiders) $205,000
A shoulder injury ended Simonsson’s season midway through 2020 but the wing spot vacated by Nick Cotric is all his. The basement price is largely due to a couple of games in the ‘bench utility’ role in 2020 and an early shower in one game, which gives him a leg up over the likes of Saab, Roberts, Fusitua et. al. Priced at around a 23PPG average, in one of the best attacking teams in the competition, there is significant upside here.
VERDICT: BUY. Even worst case scenario, a winger of his calibre and finishing ability will average 35PPG and make some early money.
Jacob Liddle HOK (Wests Tigers) $247,200
Along with Connor Watson, Liddle is now the cheapie hooker to have given he is the sole hooker named for round one in Tigerland. There is an injury-riddled past to note, and the likelihood of Adam Doueihi’s return in round two having a trickle down effect on Liddle’s minutes (via Moses Mbye moving from the No. 6 to No. 14 jersey, and covering hooker). But even worst case scenario we get Liddle with 50ish minutes. The guy is built for KFC SuperCoach. Much like Connor Watson, he has an eye for a hole, significant ball playing ability and nice workrate in defence. In the chequered past, he averages 55+PPG when playing 50 minutes or more. Jake Simpkin lurks as a very good hooker downgrade option should anything happen to Liddle.
VERDICT: BUY. Like Liddle a lot. Fingers crossed he catches a break injury wise.
Tex Hoy 5/8 | FLB (Knights) $240,300
Named to start at fullback, and a favourable opening schedule against the Bulldogs, Warriors and Tigers, Hoy presents to the naked eye as a great purchase, right? Wrong. Well, Hoy played seven games off the bench last year and is therefore priced at an average of 27.1PPG so that’s most definitely ‘unders’. The rationale here is that firstly, Mitch Barnett seems to have won the goal kicking duties over Hoy, then there’s the fact that Kalyn Ponga is believed to be returning in approximately round five from a shoulder injury, meaning Hoy will get two, maybe three price rises at best before becoming a bench utility or dropped altogether. The other main reason is the position — at fullback you should be running two guns, and at five-eighth I have Watson, Lam, Moylan etc all ahead given the season-long upside.
VERDICT: AVOID. I see a 40-50PPG average being a real proposition, but not for long enough.
Stefano Utoikamanu FRF (Wests Tigers) $186,800
Stefano the monster is finally in Tigerland after the Eels gave him next to no extended exposure to first grade last season, named on the bench for round one. Wind back to last pre-season and Freddy Fittler cited Stefano as an Origin player to watch — BEFORE he’d even played an NRL game. In terms of skillset and KFC SuperCoach chops, his PPM of 1.79 shows just how dynamic he can be. In the NSW Cup, big Stefano was a post-contact machine averaging close to 100 metres per game (35 of them post-contact) with a couple of tackle busts and a little over 25 tackles. The concern for me is the four-big-man bench the Tigers have named, and James Tamou and Joe Ofahengaue joining the club in the off-season as well. One thing that potentially eases that concern for me, again, is the return of Doueihi for round two, pushing Mbye to the bench utility and likely only three big men on the bench as the ‘norm’.
VERDICT: BUY. Of all the cheapie forwards under $250k, Stefano is the pick for me given the undeniable upside if he can jag a 30+ minute role.
Sam Walker HFB (Roosters) $173,700 & Joseph Suaalii CTW | FLB (Roosters) $173,700
I’m not going to delve too deeply here as unless you’ve been living under a rock you’ve heard about the talent, and if/when these two do in fact play for the Roosters there’s unquestionable upside that EVERY KFC SuperCoach should invest in. But, BOTH of these guys being in over 30% teams? C’mon now. There will be enough injury, COVID, selection carnage (as there always is) for us to deal with without locking in two players in your starting 25-man squad that seemingly are a fair way away from playing. One, maybe.
VERDICT: AVOID.
Ryan James FRF | 2RF (Raiders) $236,700
It’s very difficult not to be lured in by the pedigree and dual position that Ryan James offers — as evidenced by the 29% ownership at time of writing. But, we cannot overlook the multiple ACL injuries as a factor, and arguably most importantly the fact that Corey Horsburgh and Corey Harawira-Naera are likely to return to the lineup in the coming weeks. Which begs the question… Who do you think makes way for those guys? On the bench with Ryan James for round one is Saliva Havili, Sia Soliola and Ryan Sutton, with Tom Starling and Emre Guler waiting in the wings.
VERDICT: AVOID. I see the merit, and can understand people jumping on. Personally I really hope it does pan out, but for me I think we may see a Horsburgh for James swap in round two, so it’s a wait and watch to jump on prior to price rises in round three if it’s looking positive.
Matt Moylan FLB | 5/8 (Sharks) $253,600
Ok, let’s get the obvious part out of the way. This is the riskiest proposition for starting teams in KFC SuperCoach 2021 given the lengthy injury history. But, unlike many others in the cheapie price bracket we know that when he is indeed on the park he is a very, very good footy player that will be at the forefront of the Sharks plans — particularly without Shaun Johnson. All reports are that he’s healthy and the old “trained the house down” chat has come thick and fast. Some 30% of KFC SuperCoaches will be hoping more for the 45.4PPG, 51.7PPG, 59.3PPG, 63PPG, 60.6PPG and 52.8PPG season averages of the 2014-2019 phase of Moylan’s career than the recent years.
VERDICT: BUY. Undoubtedly a risk, but one worth taking given we can rule out selection as an issue compared to most cheapies. As you can see with the historical numbers, all we need is five games of full health and you will have an asset worth in excess of $400k.
James Roberts CTW (Wests Tigers) $277,700
Former NSW Origin star centre James Roberts, who finds himself in Tigerland with a fresh start after an indifferent last couple of seasons, is most definitely in KFC SuperCoach calculations. Much like Moylan above, the huge benefit over most others in the price bracket is we KNOW he’s playing every week he’s available. The fact is, when healthy and motivated this guy is electric and one of the best try scorers from anywhere on the field in the NRL. Priced at around 30PPG range after just six games last season (including a famous -5 point effort against the Panthers), Roberts should be able to average 40+PPG in his sleep, and certainly has the upside to shoot out of the gate to peak in price the quickest of the cheapie CTW-eligible players. Remember, we only need four good games in a six week span to peak price, that’s all. Roberts can do it.
VERDICT: BUY. If you’re going super cheap in the CTW, you need ‘The Jet’ for job security if nothing else, plus the upside of seasons like 2017 where he ended with an average above 60PPG from 23 matches!
Matt Lodge FRF (Broncos) $299,000
Yes, Lodge is at cheapie price, but a chequered past both on and off the field, recent injury history and a strong scent of ‘the new NRL rules have made the game too fast for Lodge’ coming out of Red Hill across the offseason have KFC SuperCoaches in a twist. Throw on top of that the fact that the Broncos have named four forwards on the bench for round one and there’s a lot pointing to $300k being about right. We must, though, factor in the Payne Haas absence to start the season and wind back to 2019 when Lodge averaged a keeper-level 62.6PPG at a stellar 1.1PPM and showed a tank big enough to play upwards of 60 minutes regularly.
VERDICT: LOW END BUY. Payne Haas’s suspension and pedigree make him the pick of the sub $300k price bracket if you’re going cheap at FRF2. But, it’s an avoid if he’s at FRF3 outside your 17.
David Fusitua CTW (Warriors) $251,800
Coming off a tough year where he scored just one try in seven games before leaving the Warriors’ bubble and returning to New Zealand for family reasons, the ‘Fus’ is WAY under appreciated in 2021. Yes, he averaged just 28PPG last season, but a proven try scorer with season averages of 37PPG, 48PPG, 42PPG and 51PPG in the previous four years tells me he’s serious value. Opening schedule including matchups against the Titans, Knights, Sea Eagles and Dragons in the first six weeks surely spells attacking stats!
VERDICT: BUY. Not many CTWs at this price have as good job security as the Fus, all we need is one game with multiple tries! In my team for sure.
Jason Saab CTW (Sea Eagles) $233,200
There’s plenty of hype for the massive former Dragons winger, standing 2m tall he’s going to be a fantastic target for DCE with the high ball in attacking areas. The worrying sign for me in a KFC SuperCoach sense is the absence of Tom Trbojevic to start the season (surely less attacking raids/points on offer), and the lack of base stats from Saab in the games he did play for the Dragons — meaning if there’s no tries, there are horrifically low scores that follow.
VERDICT: AVOID. It may be controversial, and many will have to pick him given the lack of base price cheapies around but as it stands I’d have Roberts, Staines, Fusitua, Simonsson etc all ahead.
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Dylan Walker CTW | 5/8 (Sea Eagles) $306,300
I’ll reference him as a bit of a shock inclusion despite being just above cheapie range. Let’s forget all about the off-field dramas for this equation. As far as it stands, Walker is taking the field this weekend and the only thing stopping him being a decent KFC SuperCoach prospect is injury — for now. Much like Matt Moylan, Connor Watson and numerous others, Walker’s definitely got the goods to be a fantastic early season cheapie — particularly after bing named to start at FULLBACK in the absence of Tommy Turbo! Four of Walker’s first five games in 2020 saw quality scores of 51, 46, 86 and 42 points with only the one try over that time. Can he give us four or five big scores before Turbo returns?
VERDICT: HIGH RISK BUY. An option for the “Cheap CTW” brigade as your most expensive option with upside to score like a gun.
Shawn Blore 2RF (Tigers) $210,500
Booooooo. Why can’t we have nice things? The former Panther, Blore had everyone in Tigerland talking this offseason, and if the mooted starting edge back-row slot was his (prior to the wrist injury which ended up requiring surgery), then we may have missed out on our cheapie of the year — at least to start. The head-to-head battle he had with Nathan Brown last year on debut was enough for me to know this kid has what it takes, so as soon as he returns, make sure you’re ready to pounce.
VERDICT: AVOID. Unfortunately surgery keeps him out to start the season. Fingers crossed for a speedy recovery.
Jack Hetherington FRF (Bulldogs) $294,500
What is everyone (ok, not everyone, but I’m talking to 15% of you!) thinking with Hetherington? Yes, he’s at the Dogs and had a good preseason, now named to start but this is a serious case of ‘Green-dot-itis’. Yes, a disease that spreads this time of year that sees KFC SuperCoaches catch glimpse of a cheap-ish starter and just lock it in without delving into the scenario.
Let me lay it out for you. Luke Thompson will return in round four, meaning Hetherington likely moves back to the bench. But even if he didn’t and played big minutes, what does that look like? Last season Hetherington played an average of 45 minutes and only put up 33PPG at a paltry 0.7PPM.
VERDICT: AVOID. I really don’t see it.
Tyrell Fuimaono 2RF (Dragons) $259,500
Deja vú anyone? It feels like every year Fuimaono has some sort of allure and upside, yet is always starting at cheapie price! Traditionally an edge forward with a pretty ordinary PPM, Fuimaono has been named to start at lock for the Dragons in round one, beating Blake Lawrie for that spot… Hence the intrigue. People will say ‘can’t pick him, shocking PPM’ and to be honest, that’s been totally fair in the past. But, you can’t possibly play lock and not have a decent work rate — particularly with how many tackles the middle forwards will have to make on this seemingly pretty lacklustre Dragons outfit. Showed some flashes last season that he’s capable of being a damaging ball runner. Hopefully he can do it consistently and keep his spot!
VERDICT: WATCHLIST. Not a must have to start given the history, but if he were to play 60+minutes in the opening two rounds with a good PPM then he’d be absolutely worth jumping on prior to round three.
Spencer Leniu FRF (Panthers) $218,500
The departures of James Tamou and Zane Tetevano from the Panthers forward pack means there should be minutes available in the middle and whilst Leota has been named to start, I expect Leniu to get a much bigger portion of the rotation than he did at any point last season. Having never played more than 30 minutes last season, his PPM of almost 1.3 indicates there’s serious upside at the price if he were able to eclipse that minute mark regularly.
VERDICT: BUY. Quite like Leniu as a Jamayne Taunoa-Brown from 2020 style slow burn cheapie. Just don’t be playing him in your 17!
WATCHLIST:
Ofahiki Ogden FRF (Bulldogs) $243,200
John Asiata FRF | 2RF (Broncos) $252.100
Sebastian Kris CTW (Raiders) $218,600
David Mead CTW | FLB (Broncos) $230,300
Zac Saddler 2RF | FRF (Sea Eagles) $173,700
Jake Simpkin HOK (Wests Tigers) $173,700
Connor Tracey HOK | 5/8 (Sharks) $253,600
Christian Tuipulotu CTW (Sea Eagles) $237,400
Dean Ieremia CTW | FLB (Storm) $173,700
Teig Wilton 2RF (Sharks) $250,300
Ben Trbojevic CTW | 2RF (Sea Eagles) $173,700
Greg Marzhew (formerly Leleisiuao) CTW (Titans) $173,700
Josh Schuster 5/8 (Sea Eagles) $203,100
Joe Stimson 2RF (Bulldogs) $228,900
Jock Madden HFB (Wests Tigers) $173,700
Jayden Sullivan HFB (Dragons) $206,900
Josh Curran 2RF (Warriors) $203,100
Haze Dunster CTW (Eels) $173,700
Ben Condon 2RF (Cowboys) $186,800
Max Feagai CTW (Dragons) $203,100
Mat Feagai CTW (Dragons) $173,700
Brayden Wiliame CTW (Dragons) $203,100
Matt Timoko CTW (Raiders) $203,100
Semi Valemei CTW (Raiders) $294,900
Paul Turner HFB (Warriors) $212,600
Tom Ale FRF (Warriors) $203,100
Isaac Lumelume CTW (Storm) $285,800
Franklin Pele FRF (Sharks) $173,700
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