Round 4 trade guide: The KFC SuperCoach silver lining in Melbourne-Essendon delay
His teammate Josh Dunkley has been ruled out for six weeks, he’s averaging 111 and has the game’s most glorious mullet. Western Bulldogs rising star Bailey Smith looms as one of the top KFC SuperCoach buys ahead of Round 4. This is why.
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KFC SuperCoaches rarely get a second chance.
In previous years, if you missed out on a coveted rookie or a breakout mid-pricer you would be left to rue your trade inaction.
Christian Petracca, Trent Rivers and Harley Bennell were three of the leading trade targets of Round 3 ahead of projected price surges.
However, the Demons trio remain the same prices they were last week after their Round 3 match against Essendon was postponed due to Conor McKenna’s positive COVID-19 test.
Understandably, it was a blow for those who missed out on scores from Melbourne and Essendon players when Round 3 reverted to the best 18 scoring system.
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Wondering why we went to best 18 scoring at the weekend? @al_superfooty and @tim_michell explain. https://t.co/R5WNt9k9Vt #SuperCoach
— SuperCoach AFL (@Supercoach) June 22, 2020
Those coaches will be somewhat compensated when the Demons-Bombers fixture is factored into another round of KFC SuperCoach.
The delay in that fixture means Rivers ($117,300, 41 per cent of teams) and Bennell ($123,900, 27 per cent of teams) are still available for rookie price, while Petracca ($470,000, 19 per cent of teams) costs less than $500,000.
Had you been eyeing any of this trio, Round 4 represents a great opportunity to grab them before their price soars.
Essendon’s team is subject to change based on teammates who had close contact with McKenna, although Bombers with low break evens include Jordan Ridley (BE 9), Andrew McGrath (BE 32) and Zach Merrett (BE 71).
Merrett will be in consideration for many coaches who started with Josh Dunkley, who has been ruled out for at least six weeks due to an ankle injury.
Melbourne gun Clayton Oliver ($594,300, MID) is another to weigh up as a direct replacement, as he will likely play twice in the round the Melbourne-Essendon clash is rescheduled closest to.
TOP TARGETS
Trent Rivers (Melbourne) $117,300 DEF-MID Average: 62 Break even: -17
If you missed out on Rivers last week, this is your opportunity to grab him before his price jumps. The No. 32 pick in last year’s national draft, Rivers impressed on debut with 12 disposals at 83 per cent. He was projected to jump more than $35,000 in Round 3 before Melbourne’s game against Essendon was postponed. His dual-position eligibility is attractive as he can be used to pivot popular Brisbane rookie Brandon Starcevich.
Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) $737,600 MID Avg: 164.7 BE: 84
Not sure you can win KFC SuperCoach this year without Neale. He’s made the best start to a season ever recorded by Champion Data with scores of 157, 171 and 166. The bad news for teams without Neale is he takes on struggling Adelaide next. In three matches this year, the Crows have leaked eight hundreds to rival midfielders. That bodes ominously for the 55.5 per cent of teams without Neale.
Tom Williamson (Carlton) $146,300 DEF Avg: 53 BE: 4
Prioritise Rivers, but Williamson is one of the best rookie downgrades this week if you already jumped on the young Demon. The Blues defender was solid in his first game since Round 8 last year, finishing with eight disposals, three marks and two tackles. He would have scored more than 60 had he not conceded a free kick which led to a Joel Selwood goal. Don’t expect big scores, but his job security appears strong due to Nic Newman’s long-term injury.
Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) $483,100 FWD-MID Avg: 125 BE: 32
The Roos midfielder will be one of the top alternatives for those looking to trade Lachie Whitfield after his score of eight against Western Bulldogs. While Whitfield’s price is set to plummet, Simpkin is on the way up. He started at $383,000 and has already climbed by more than $100,000. After scores of 131, 104 and 140, Simpkin is projected to rise again by more than $20,000. He’s increased his average from 18.6 disposals last year to 24.7 and is averaging 6.3 clearances a game.
Andrew McGrath (Essendon) $426,200 MID Avg: 105.5 BE: 32
Who knows how the Essendon team will look this round, or if its game against Carlton will go ahead. If the match is played, McGrath shapes as one of the top mid-price options for Round 4. Playing almost exclusively as a midfielder, he’s averaged 23 disposals, seven tackles, four clearances and 105.5 KFC SuperCoach points. With a break even of only 32, his price will keep rising for another 3-4 weeks and you’ll have options to upgrade or cash in then.
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Christian Petracca (Melbourne) $470,000 FWD Avg: 115.5 BE: 37
Another player whose price would have soared in Round 3 had Melbourne's game against Essendon gone ahead. Petracca has made a flying start to 2020, producing scores of 105 and 126. He will be closer to $500,000 after four rounds if he scores his third hundred in a row. Petracca has been a popular trade target and now features in 19 per cent of teams. He’s cheaper than players such as Hugh Greenwood and Jy Simpkin if you’re looking to downgrade Lachie Whitfield.
Harley Bennell (Melbourne) $123,900 MID Avg: 59 BE: -11
The comeback Demon made a promising return against Carlton in Round 2 with 59 KFC SuperCoach points in only 50 per cent game time. As he builds match fitness, that number will increase and should result in a jump in his SuperCoach scoring. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him rested at some point due to his injury history. However, players who have averaged 95 points or more in four seasons, as Bennell has, rarely — if ever — come this cheap.
Nick Haynes (GWS Giants) $507,500 DEF Avg: 107 BE: 83
Don’t underestimate the importance of consistency and durability in KFC SuperCoach this year. While coaches effectively have two trades a week to play with, having to use them on injured stars will almost certainly make it impossible to reach a full-premium team. Haynes has played 44 games since the start of 2018. There were signs the GWS intercept star was about to become a KFC SuperCoach stud late last year when he posted three consecutive tons in rounds 20-22. In three games this season he’s scored between 97-114.
Hugh Greenwood (Gold Coast) $502,900 FWD Avg: 109 BE: 76
The tackle machine must be a joy to own in KFC SuperCoach as he’s one of the few midfielders who doesn’t rely on huge possession numbers to amass points. On Sunday against Adelaide, 25 players had more disposals than Greenwood’s tally of 11. Yet the tough on-baller laid 13 tackles to finish with a score of 116 and lift his average to 109. His tackle and clearance numbers alone should guarantee solid scores every week.
Marc Pittonet (Carlton) $316,800 RUC Avg: 135.5 BE: -90
Missing out on Pittonet’s initial $80,600 price rise is a blow, but it’s not too late to jump on the Carlton ruckman. If you’ve got Sam Jacobs ($406,300, BE 81), you can make almost $90,000 and take advantage of Pittonet’s -90 break even. A score above 90 will result in another jump of more than $80,000 for Pittonet, who has posted 134 and 137 into his two games for the Blues.
Bailey Smith (Western Bulldogs) $483,600 FWD-MID Avg: 111 BE: 49
Smith has outshone the Bulldogs’ big three — Jack Macrae, Josh Dunkley and Marcus Bontempelli — averaging 111 with scores of 106, 126 and 101 to Round 3. He’s the No. 1 ranked Bulldog ahead of Macrae (109.7), Dunkley (108.7) and Caleb Daniel (103), yet available for more than $100,000 cheaper than Macrae and Dunkley. The obvious question mark is whether his form is sustainable over a full season, but the early signs suggest he can emulate Clayton Oliver’s second-year breakout.
Tom Doedee (Adelaide) $294,400 DEF Avg: 76 BE: 16
Sunday was a better indication of Doedee’s scoring potential than his return match. The Adelaide defender struggled in his first game in more than 12 months two weeks ago, scoring 39 against rival Port Adelaide. He was back to his intercepting best in Adelaide’s loss to Gold Coast, putting himself back on the KFC SuperCoach radar with 20 disposals, eight marks and 113 points.
Have we ever had five players $700k+ in #SuperCoach?
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) June 22, 2020
Brodie Grundy $712k BE: 189
Max Gawn $702k BE: 125
Nat Fyfe $674k BE: 76
Todd Goldstein $678k BE: 73
Lachie Neale $737k BE: 84
CHOPPING BLOCK
Lachie Whitfield $537,500 FWD-MID Average: 71.3 Break even: 202
Marcus Bontempelli $560,900 MID Avg: 89 BE: 129
Dan Houston $440,700 DEF-MID Avg: 70.7 BE: 119
Sam Jacobs $406,300 RUC Avg: 95 BE: 81
Josh Kelly $614,800 MID Av 95.5 BE: 160
Jack Steven $361,700 FWD-MID Avg: 20 BE: 120
Toby Greene $492,00 FWD Avg: 77.5 BE: 126
Rowan Marshall $532,500 RUC Avg: 81 BE: 153
GOING DOWN?
Lachie Whitfield $537,500 FWD-MID Average: 71.3 Break even: 202 Price change: -$56,200
Patrick Dangerfield $563,500 MID Avg: 86.3 BE: 146 Price change: -$38,000
Marcus Bontempelli $560,900 MID Avg: 89 BE: 129 Price change: -$32,300
Tom Mitchell $599,900 MID Avg: 103.3 BE: 152 Price change: $19,700
Zac Williams $517,300 DEF Avg: 68.5 BE: 158 Price change: -$34,400
Tim Kelly $523,600 MID Avg: 84 BE: 133 Price change: -$28,300
Josh Kelly $614,800 MID Avg: 95.5 BE: 160 Price change: N/A
Shannon Hurn $562,900 DEF Avg: 104.7 BE: 160 Price change: -$4,600
Rowan Marshall $532,500 RUC Avg: 81 BE: 153 Price change: -$36,900
Rory Sloane $544,600 MID Avg: 98.3 BE: 139 Price change: -$9,700
KEY BREAK EVENS
PREMIUMS ($500,000 or more)
James Sicily $501,700 DEF Average: 98 Break even: 63 Projected price rise: +$15,000
Zach Merrett $597,300 MID Avg: 135 BE: 71 Projected price rise: +$13,800
Ben Cunnington $575,200 MID Avg: 128.5 BE: 72 Projected price rise: +$14,100
Todd Goldstein $678,700 RUC Avg: 150.3 BE: 73 Projected price rise: +$24,800
Nat Fyfe $674,600 MID Avg: 139.7 BE: 76 Projected price rise: +$25,500
Hugh Greenwood $502,900 FWD-MID Avg: 109 BE: 76 Projected price rise: +9,300
Michael Walters $588,600, FWD-MID Avg: 122.3 BE: 79 Projected price rise: +8,400
Lachie Neale $737,600 MID Avg: 164.7 BE: 84 Projected price rise: +$32,200
MID-PRICERS ($250,000-$500,000)
Matthew Rowell $387,700 MID Avg: 130.7 BE: -90 Projected price rise: +99,400
Marc Pittonet $316,800 RUC Avg: 135.5 BE: -90 Projected price rise: +$83,900
Dan Butler $344,500 FWD Avg: 102.7 BE: -42 Projected price rise: +$55,300
Josh Daicos $344,900 MID Avg: 91 BE: -15 Projected price rise: +$40,800
Aidan Corr $282,100 DEF Avg: 76 BE: -7 Projected price rise: +$21,500
Oscar McInerney $385,100 RUC-FWD Avg: 86 BE: 1 Projected price rise: +$40,000
Devon Smith $373,100 FWD-MID Avg: 105 BE: 3 Projected price rise: +$36,300
Jack Viney $486,800 MID Avg: 136 BE: 6 Projected price rise: +$47,100
Jordan Ridley $354,900 DEF Avg: 97 BE: 9 Projected price rise: +$30,600
Tom Doedee $294,400 DEF Avg: 76 BE: 16 Projected price rise: +$16,100
Jy Simpkin $483,100 FWD-MID Avg: 125 BE: 32 Projected price rise: +$22,900
Andrew McGrath $426,200 MID Avg: 105.5 BE: 32 Projected price rise: +$28,000
Christian Petracca $470,000 FWD Avg: 115.5 BE: 37 Projected price rise: +$29,400
ROOKIES (Less than $250,000)
Brandon Starcevich $230,500 DEF-MID Avg: 72 BE: -56 Projected price rise: +$50,800
Connor Budarick $184,900 MID-FWD Avg: 62 BE: -36 Projected price rise: +$44,200
Sam Sturt $152,200 FWD Avg: 55.5 BE: -24 Projected price rise: +$35,900
Max King $192,600 FWD Avg: 56.7 BE: -18 Projected price rise: +$33,700
Darcy Cameron $147,700 RUC-FWD Avg: 50.5 BE: -17 Projected price rise: +$26,300
Trent Rivers $117,300 DEF-MID Avg: 62 BE: -17 Projected price rise: +$35,300
Jarrod Brander $207,300 DEF-FWD Avg: 64 BE: -15 Projected price rise: +$29,900
Tyler Brown $196,200 MID Avg: 62.3 BE: -11 Projected price rise: +$32,800
Harley Bennell $123,900 MID Avg: 59 BE: -11 Projected price rise: +$29,200
Curtis Taylor $219,100 FWD Avg: 67 BE: 3 Projected price rise: +$20,200
Marlion Pickett $201,500 MID Avg 60.3 BE: 28 Projected price rise: +$14,300
It might be time to bench Pickett in fantasy. No impact in the last two rounds and just 64% game time - lowest at the Tigers of anyone to play at least 2 games. #SuperCoach #AFLFantasy
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) June 22, 2020
BIGGEST OWNERSHIP CHANGES*
Jy Simpkin +1.5 per cent
Marc Pittonet +0.9 per cent
Dan Butler +0.4 per cent
Nat Fyfe +0.4 per cent
Harley Bennell +0.4 per cent
Lachie Neale +0.4 per cent
Trent Rivers +0.3 per cent
Brandon Starcevich +0.3 per cent
Tom Williamson +0.3 per cent
Lachie Whitfield -1.4 per cent
Sam Jacobs -0.6 per cent
Dan Houston -0.5 per cent
Tom Green -0.3 per cent
Ben Long -0.3 per cent
Josh Kelly -0.3 per cent
John Noble -0.3 per cent
Marlion Pickett -0.2 per cent
Patrick Dangerfield -0.2 per cent
*Ownership changes current as of 1pm Monday
📈 Key #SuperCoach price rises
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) June 21, 2020
M.Rowell +102.9k
L.Neale +43.8k
T.Goldstein +38.2k
N.Fyfe +20.2k
J.Howe +41.7k
N.Haynes +18.8k
H.Greenwood +23.9k
B.Ebert +40.8k
N.Naitanui +25.8k
S.Docherty +32.1k
Ba.Smith +34.2k
J.Simpkin +59.7k
D.Butler +67.1k
M.Pittonet +80.6k
📉 Key #SuperCoach price falls
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) June 21, 2020
T.Mitchell -19.7k
P.Dangerfield -38k
M.Bontempelli -32.3k
L.Whitfield -56.2k
R.Marshall -36.9k
T.Kelly -28.3k
E.Yeo -36.7k
Z.Williams -34.4k
R.Laird -10.4k
Originally published as Round 4 trade guide: The KFC SuperCoach silver lining in Melbourne-Essendon delay