KFC SuperCoach: Experts Al Paton, Dan Batten, Tim Michell and The Phantom rate the most popular trades of Round 4
He’s made a red-hot start to 2020 and more than 10 per cent of KFC SuperCoach trades for Round 4 have featured Jy Simpkin. Can the Roos on-baller maintain his form? Our experts debate the big moves of the week.
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The trades have been flying this week after one of the most dramatic rounds in KFC SuperCoach history.
No one could have predicted the carnage which would unfold midround when the Essendon-Melbourne fixture was postponed, ruling out popular picks such as Devon Smith, Max Gawn, Christian Petracca and Trent Rivers.
Savvy coaches will have recognised they can pick up Demons and Bombers at the same price as last week, but it’s a North Melbourne rising star who has featured in the most trades ahead of Round 4.
Jy Simpkin, whose price has jumped to $483,100 after averaging 125, has been traded in by more than 7000 coaches.
His ownership is set to almost double next round after featuring in 11006 sides in Round 3.
Here’s what our experts Al Paton, Dan Batten, Tim Michell and The Phantom think of your trade plans for this week.
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TRADED OUT
Lachie Whitfield $537,500 FWD-MID
Al Paton: HOLD. Bleeding cash but that only becomes an issue if you trade him out. For me he’s a season-long keeper.
Dan Batten: CONSIDER. Provided you have no other pressing issues to fix, trading Whitfield to the likes of Christian Petracca, Jy Simpkin or Bailey Smith has merit.
Tim Michell: HOLD … I think. He’s likely to lose $100,000 over the next two weeks but that’s not worth burning two trades to move him on then get him back. You’d only consider trading if he misses Round 4.
The Phantom: TRADE. Cash out before another big fall. Take the $70k and go to Petracca – or Simpkin. Then consider picking him up again when his price bottoms out as your first fallen premium upgrade.
Sam Jacobs $406,300 RUC
AP: TRADE. Cash in that $57k profit and get on the Marc Pittonet train before it rockets out of sight.
DB: TRADE. Owners expecting a big score against Tim English were disappointed and downgrading to Marc Pittonet looms as a shrewd move.
TM: TRADE – especially if you don’t have Marc Pittonet. You can make a hefty profit and capitalise on Pittonet’s low break even to keep that cash generation going.
TP: TRADE. Up against Brodie Grundy this week so you may not get much more out of him money-wise. Marc Pittonet on the other hand is a different story.
Josh Dunkley $602,600 MID
AP: TRADE. Love Dunk but you can’t sit him on the bench for six weeks or more.
DB: TRADE. Dunkley is set to be sidelined for the next six weeks which means owners must give him the flick.
TM: TRADE. You can’t hold a $600,000 player on your bench for six weeks.
TP: TRADE. Neale, if all else is well and you can afford it. But don’t ruin your team for him at $737k. Nat Fyfe is another must-have while Travis Boak, Andrew Gaff and Zach Merrett are worth some thought as PODs.
Dan Houston $440,700 DEF-MID
AP: TRADE. Yet to score above 80 in three games and needs to get 119 this week to avoid another price drop.
DB: TRADE. His coach confirmed he will remain in defence for the time being which is certainly not what the doctor ordered.
TM: TRADE – but only if you don’t have bigger issues. He’s not scoring like a premium but with a BE of 119 he shouldn’t lose much more value.
TP: TRADE. As expected, with the injury to Ryan Burton, Houston was back in defence against the Dockers. He didn’t attend a centre bounce in Round 3 and, while he did have an influence across halfback, get off now while you still can.
Sam Sturt $152,200 FWD
AP: HOLD (unless you have no bench cover). Sit him at F8 for now and trade him to the next good forward rookie that comes along.
DB: HOLD. For now. Once a forward rookie emerges he may be worth considering he will miss at least the next three weeks, but he still holds a low breakeven.
TM: TRADE – as long as it’s to Harley Bennell or Trent Rivers. If you can’t lose DPP to get one of these Demons just leave Sturt on your bench until a better rookie trade presents.
TP: TRADE. As frustrating as it will be for those who just traded him in, in a short season, you cannot afford to wait until he returns.
Tom Green $166,800 MID
AP: TRADE. Could get back into the Giants team but he isn’t going to be the money-maker we thought. Turn him into Harley Bennell or Trent Rivers this week.
DB: TRADE. Didn’t get a run when Josh Kelly is a late withdrawal so his job security is just too flimsy.
TM: HOLD. With question marks over Josh Kelly, I’m keen to see if he comes back into the GWS team this round. If he does, he’ll rise in value and could help cover a hole at M8.
TP: TRADE. Jackson Hately and Jye Caldwell look to be ahead of him in the Giants’ midfield mix so he has to go. You’ve still got Bennell and Rivers as rookie-price options.
Marlion Pickett $201,500 MID
AP: HOLD. I can understand people getting antsy but Richmond as a whole has been pretty awful for the past two games. They’ll come good.
DB: HOLD. Could be a surprise axing this week following a run of poor form but is capable of strong scoring.
TM: HOLD – for now. Pickett looks certain to max out in value in the next 2-3 weeks and his low time on ground is a worry.
TP: HOLD. Get one more price rise, at least, out of him.
John Noble $251,700 DEF
AP: HOLD. I haven’t even considered moving Noble on yet although an 80-plus score would be nice to give his value a kick-along.
DB: Consider. Has one the higher break evens of the most popular starting rookies and probably the least likely to hurt you if you jump off early.
TM: HOLD. Noble appears to have strong job security and is doing enough to sit at D6 or provide defensive cover until mid-year.
TP: HOLD. Unless you’re making cash through a Pittonet trade, or similar, and want to start upgrading, there’s no need to jump off just yet.
Josh Kelly $614,800 MID
AP: TRADE – if he’s out this week. If he plays you probably have to keep him but his injury history still makes me nervous. If you can get from him to Lachie Neale, do it!
DB: HOLD. I am a frustrated Kelly owner but it’s too early to trade him just yet.
TM: HOLD. Unless you can get to Lachie Neale, you’re looking at a sideways swap. I can understand why people would be keen on Zach Merrett or Clayton Oliver at a similar price after their Round 3 game was postponed.
TP: HOLD. *Rolls eyes*.
Patrick Dangerfield $563,500 MID
AP: HOLD. He’s a champion who hasn’t averaged below 115 for the past five years, so a big score has to be around the corner. Scored 154 against the Dees last year.
DB: HOLD. A big score may be just around the corner for Danger who has Melbourne and Gold Coast in his next two.
TM: HOLD. You just know as soon as you trade Danger he’ll go bananas. His disposal efficiency is costing him more points and if he corrects that his scoring will improve quickly.
TP: HOLD. One more chance. Then I might start considering cashing out here as well. But I’m not against a move to Neale, if it works for you.
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Round 4 trade guide: The KFC SuperCoach silver lining in Melbourne-Essendon delay
TRADED IN
Jy Simpkin $483,100 FWD-MID
AP: PASS. Understand the hype but Connor Rozee was the hot mid-pricer last week and look what happened.
DB: BUY. Is relishing his new-found midfield role and will be above $500,000 after Round 4.
TM: BUY. Has an element of chasing points about it as he’s $100,000 more expensive than his starting price. But he’s in superb form and still has a low break even which is a big plus.
TP: BUY. Love him as a player and he’s the competition’s seventh-ranked scorer after three rounds. But I do think Christian Petracca catches him from here.
Marc Pittonet $316,800 RUC
AP: BUY. If you still have a Jacobs or Naitanui type, get on the Pitt. Could be worth $500k in a month.
DB: BUY. It’s not too late to nab Marc Pittonet who shapes as a player who will make you cash fast.
TM: BUY. You’d be disappointed to have missed out on his initial $80,000 price rise but it’s not too late. Especially if your R2 is Sam Jacobs. Don’t downgrade Brodie Grundy or Max Gawn as some coaches have been considering.
TP: BUY. It’s not too late. If your R2 isn’t Max Gawn or Todd Goldstein, do it.
Nat Fyfe $674,600 MID
AP: BUY. Trading him out two weeks ago (for Dangerfield) could be the dumbest move of my SuperCoach life. I can’t watch him any more.
DB: BUY. The Gold Coast hub suits Fyfe’s contested style perfectly. After that, matches at his home ground of Perth Stadium await him.
TM: BUY: The dual Brownlow medallist seems one of the most likely players to push Lachie Neale for the No. 1 midfield rank this year. A BE of 76 means he’ll be closer to $700,000 than his current price after Round 4.
TP: BUY. He’s not far behind Neale and the Fremantle skipper, who is in less teams, could just be getting started. He’s more affordable, too.
Dan Butler $344,500 FWD
AP: PASS. He has all the hallmarks of a flash in the pan. Do we really think he’ll average more than Lachie Whitfield and Dustin Martin all season like he is now? But hey, it’s 2020.
DB: BUY. You wouldn’t in any other season, but Butler could give you a quick cash injection with a -45 break even this week.
TM: BUY – But with a warning. Don’t be shocked if he doesn’t maintain his early-season scoring and be prepared to jump ship when his break even rises. He should be brought in as a short-term cash grab.
TP: PASS. Who?
Lachie Neale $737,600 MID
AP: BUY BUY BUY. Normally the idea is to get players at their lowest price but not having Neale is destroying the half of the competition who don’t own him. Could threaten Jonathan Brown’s all-time scoring record against the Crows on Sunday.
DB: BUY. Is $737,600 too high a price? The real question is, can you afford to get him at close to $800,000 after likely big scores against Adelaide and Port Adelaide?
TM: BUY. You can’t win KFC SuperCoach without him. He’s in almost 45 per cent of teams and you’re losing ground every week you don’t have Neale.
TP: BUY. It’s a lot to pay but, with a breakeven of 84 and a meeting with the Crows on Sunday, it could be a lot more next week If a Neale-less midfield is your only issue, go for it. But don’t ruin your team for him at the price, there’s a number of other great options.
Harley Bennell $123,900 MID
AP:BUY. Hopefully the week off will have him nice and fresh against the Cats.
DB: BUY. The postponed game gives those who overlooked Bennell the chance to bring him before he appreciates.
TM:BUY. He’s still at rookie price but has huge upside after scoring 59 in 50 per cent game time in his return match.
TP: BUY. Those who couldn’t squeeze him last week get another opportunity at basement-price. And I’d be taking it.
Brandon Starcevich $230,500 DEF-MID
AP: PASS. Giving great returns for a rookie especially in defence but you’ve already missed half his likely cash generation.
DB: BUY. The youngster’s 28-point score is out of his rolling average and he has scored like a premium the past two weeks.
TM: PASS. That ship has sailed. Grab Trent Rivers or Tom Williamson instead.
TP: BUY. With a -56 breakeven, Starcevich could be in for his biggest price rise yet. And it means, he’s still an option if you’re jumping off a failed mid-price or underperforming premium.
Trent Rivers $117,300 DEF-MID
AP: BUY. Edges Bennell out as the best rookie of the week because he’s a DEF/MID DPP. Job security looks OK with some injuries down back at Demon land.
DB: BUY. Same story as Bennell and his dual-position status is a major plus.
TM: BUY. His DPP status is very appealing. Pick him in midfield if you have Starcevich in defence and you’ll have cover in both positions if one is squeezed out. That seems unlikely on current form though.
TP: BUY. See Bennell.
Ben King $291,100 FWD
AP: PASS. Don’t do this, people! Young key forwards will have big games but he scored 59 and 61 in the first two rounds. Won’t play Adelaide every week.
DB: AVOID. King was dominant against a lacklustre Crows defence but key forwards are known for being volatile SuperCoach picks.
TM: PASS. As impressive as King was on the weekend, he won’t play Adelaide every week. Key forwards are struggling to have consistent impact in KFC SuperCoach this year.
TP: PASS. Just missed the boat on this one, I think. And he doesn’t play the Crows every week.
Tom Williamson $146,300 DEF
AP: BUY. Not expecting huge returns but should offer solid bench cover. Nic Newman’s injury makes him a safe selection.
DB: BUY. Looks to have a spot with Nic Newman out for the season and he should go better than his rookie year way back in 2017.
TM: BUY – but only if you already have Rivers. His job security is great due to Nic Newman’s long-term injury but the Demon has greater scoring potential.
TP: PASS. Given the first price rise this year, after one, not two, games, isn’t as steep, I’m happy to wait a week on this one.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach: Experts Al Paton, Dan Batten, Tim Michell and The Phantom rate the most popular trades of Round 4