Home price rises across NSW since last state election reveal brutal truth

Home prices soared by up to $720k in some NSW electorates since the 2019 state election, with experts revealing where plans to rein in soaring costs all went wrong. See the top growth areas list

Home buying hopes have deteriorated at record levels across NSW electorates since the last state election, exclusive new analysis shows.

Affordability worsened in nearly every location, thanks to a potent cocktail of runaway price growth, soaring interest rates and subdued wage increases.

And incentives aimed at getting more first homebuyers into the market aren’t doing enough to address the root of the problem, housing experts claim.

The squeeze on households became particularly severe in Greater Western Sydney, where home prices increased by an average up to $720,000 in some electorates since the 2019 NSW state election.

Western Sydney was also home to some of the few markets where home prices continued to grow amid record rises in interest rates, which squashed demand elsewhere over the past year.

New homeowners: Elizabeth Wyatt and Lachlan Spencer bought in a new estate of Riverstone, one of the fastest growing areas since 2019. Picture: Christian Anstey

This has left families with the twin challenge of super-sized mortgages and inflated loan rates.

Many of the west’s top growth areas were previously among the most affordable in Sydney, with prices accessible for critical service workers like teachers, nurses and other lower-income professions.

They included Leppington, in the southwest, where prices ballooned by 78.4 per cent since the 2019 election, the biggest rise in housing entry costs across Sydney electorates, according to the PropTrack data.

The median price of a home in the electorate had been $555,000 at the outset of the 2019 election and is now $435,000 higher at $990,000. The median rise over the last year alone was $125,000.

Other western growth regions were the Kellyville state electorate and the Hawkesbury state electorate, both with price rises of about 65 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Castle Hill electorate, which includes much of the Hills district, solidified its status as a newly affluent area.

Castle Hill houses now average over $2m. This house hit the market this week.

House prices in the electorate averaged $1.35m just before the 2019 election – the median is now $2.09m, a meteoric rise of $720,000.

PropTrack economist Angus Moore said the spectacular growth in western areas was a result of a trend that’s continued since the start of the Covid pandemic, albeit at a slower pace in recent months.

“Families with higher paying jobs, often jobs in the CBD, are moving to outer areas,” he said, noting the rise of remote working arrangements helped drive the shift.

“Another, probably bigger, factor that’s continued since the pandemic is that people are putting more value on bigger homes and are moving to the areas where they can get them,” Mr Moore said.

There were instances of households who made the move out west after selling pricier inner city homes and using the profits and their higher incomes to bid up prices, Mr Moore said.

Many western areas also lacked enough housing stock to absorb the increased demand.

Buyers have favoured areas with larger houses since the pandemic.

Mr Moore added that price rises were good for long-term residents who owned their homes outright but created challenging conditions for those in the area who wanted to become new buyers.

Entry costs for parts of regional NSW also became more strained since 2019, with house prices nearly doubling in the constituencies of Ballina, Monaro and Bega.

The Central Coast was another boom region during the inter-election period, with the Wyong and Terrigal electorates recording some of the largest price rises.

Real Estate Institute of NSW chief executive Tim McKibbin said housing affordability challenges needed to be addressed at a council, state and federal level.

“We don’t have enough housing,” he said. “We have two stark choices. We can build more housing or we could get people to leave NSW so that the population drops. The second option is obviously not realistic so we have to build more.”

Mr Moore said greater supply was the only sustainable, long-term solution.

“Some (recent) first homebuyer incentives in NSW will ease the upfront costs for buyers, but they don’t solve the longer affordability issue,” he said. “We simply need more housing in the places people want to live.”

Home seller Jennifer Newton, pictured with agent Brett Humby, got a record price in the Riverstone area. Picture: Christian Anstey

McGrath Northwest agent Brent Humby, who sells homes across the northwest and Western Sydney, said first homebuyer incentives were part of what had made the west much more popular.

“Suburbs like Riverstone are some of the few areas left where you buy for under $1.5m and get the incentives, so that’s made them a lot more popular. The growth has been huge,” he said.

“If you look at places like Kellyville, they’re no longer accessible for a lot of people. You need at least $2.2m to get a quality family home.”

STATE ELECTORATES WITH FASTEST GROWING PRICES (All dwelling types)

SYDNEY

Leppington 78.4%

Hawkesbury 65.7%

Kellyville 65.4%

Wyong 55.9%

Terrigal 55.3%

Hornsby 54.6%

Riverstone 53.7%

Castle Hill 51.9%

Wakehurst 51.8%

Pittwater 51.6%

REGIONAL NSW

Ballina 87.9%

Orange 84.6%

Monaro 82.9%

Bega 79.3%

Cessnock 77.1%

Albury 76.7%

Myall Lakes 71.4%

Oxley 71.4%

South Coast 68.0%

Maitland 67.5%

Source: PropTrack