Liberal preselection for Warringah narrows, speculation another frontrunner has dropped out

Far from having a glittering line up of Liberals to choose from to take on independent Zali Steggall at the next election, speculation is mounting that another frontrunner is dropping out of the race.

There are serious doubts among some senior Liberals that the party will be able to win back Warringah at the next federal election, following speculation that another frontrunner has dropped out.

It comes as several others who were thought to be interested are also now undecided.

Sources say that Jane Buncle, a high-flying barrister who believes in climate change, is the only candidate who will definitely be putting herself forward for preselection at this stage.

Sasha Grebe, a former policy advisor to Scott Morrison and who has a long established history of “green credentials”, would not confirm whether he will run one way or the other.

Sasha Grebe who is rumoured to have pulled out of the Liberal preselection. (AAP Image/ Julian Andrews).

But a Liberal source told the Manly Daily that Mr Grebe had decided not to run mainly because the party had left preselection “too late” for him to build a public profile.

Last week high flying Liberal Natalie Ward, an Upper House MP in the NSW parliament and a Minister in the Coalition State Government, confirmed she would not be seeking preselection either.

It is understood two other senior Liberals, Tim James and Alex Dore who were previously touted for preselection, are now undecided.

Liberal party member Tim James has not confirmed whether he is running for preselection.

It comes as a leaked Liberal associated poll of 611 people in Warringah found that 25 per cent would change their vote to Liberal if the candidate had a clear interest in climate and the environment; 8 per cent would change depending on the easing of Covid restrictions and four per cent would change their vote if the candidate was a female.

However, several Liberal sources said they were not confident Jane Buncle could win the seat back from Ms Steggall, because she was too similar, in that she was a female and a barrister.

“The line that is being used is, ‘Why would the Liberal party preselect a Zali Steggall without the medal’?” said one Liberal from the Warringah conference referencing Ms Steggall’s Olympic medal and Ms Buncle’s lack of one.

“We don’t need a homebrand Zali or a Zali-lite, that is not the path to victory.”

They also said Ms Buncle would lose against any other candidate because she does not have the numbers within the conference to win preselection.

Meanwhile, a Jane Buncle supporter dismissed those comments, insisting she was a fantastic candidate and if you were to line up the CVs of all the potential candidates including Zali Steggall’s, “you would be very impressed” with Ms Buncle’s credentials.

One Liberal said despite pressure being heaped upon former NSW Premier Mike Baird to run, as well as approaches to celebrities such as cricketer Brett Lee, there was no “star” waiting in the wings.

All the Liberals the Manly Daily spoke to said while former Premier Gladys Berejiklian would be a dream candidate, the ICAC investigation would not have concluded in time for her to run.

Environment Minister Matt Kean, Lib Senator Andrew Bragg, Lib official Alex Dore and Squash NSW director Peter Sinodinos. Mr Dore is believed to be undecided on whether to run for preselection.

Along with a lack of candidates, one said prolonging the preselection was a “fatal flaw” in the party’s tactics.

“They’ve left it too late,” said one. “It is a fatal flaw.”

Another added that the fact that there will now be three state by-elections this year, as well as the local council elections, is another blow for the campaign.

Those distractions will inevitably push back any decision by the party on announcing the new Liberal candidate for Warringah until December.

It will also reduce the ability to build up the election campaign war chest because everyone will be fundraising for by-elections and local elections.

One admitted that in addition to all those problems the lockdown had left everyone feeling lethargic.

Former Warringah MP Tony Abbott and then-challenger Zali Steggall during the last election campaign. Picture: David Swift.

“The honest truth is that it’s getting harder and harder to see how we will win,” one Warringah insider said.

However, a source said the seat was winnable for the Liberals and the trade off of not having a long run up to the election, which many believe will be in March, is that it will be hard to “land the blows on a Liberal candidate if they are not in the field for long”.

And, they will be able to come in “fresh and in a flurry of energy”.

One senior Liberal who was confident the seat was there for the taking said what most people forget is that many Liberals who voted for Ms Steggall did so in order to get Tony Abbott out and that many of those will naturally return to voting Liberal at the next election.

Therefore someone like Ms Buncle could be the answer.

Another said there were always surprise candidates no-one expects in every preselection.