Climate 200: Zali Steggall-style independents could win support in Liberal safe seats

Could independents in the mould of Zali Steggall win other ‘safe’ Liberal seats across Sydney at the next election or was the Steggall v Abbott battle just a perfect storm?

A new poll has found that independent candidates in the mould of Warringah’s Zali Steggall would see “significant support” from voters in three key blue-ribbon seats.

Climate 200, a not-for-profit group that supports independents with “a science-based response to climate change”, said its latest poll suggested that if the right candidates were found, they could have a chance at toppling other Liberals in safe seats.

It has funded new research undertaken by professional polling group, Ucomms.

The results found that if an election was held now, between 24 and 27 per cent of those polled would vote for an “independent like Zali” if there was one standing. Ms Steggall, a former Olympian and barrister, beat former Prime Minister Tony Abbott in the 2019 election.

Then Warringah MP Tony Abbott with Zali Steggall during the 2019 federal election campaign. Picture: David Swift.

However, the poll which concentrated in the three seats of Mackellar, North Sydney and Wentworth, also showed the biggest percentage of respondents would still vote Liberal, rather than an independent like Ms Steggall.

In the seat of North Sydney, currently held by MP Trent Zimmerman, 33.8 per cent said they would vote Liberal even if there was an “independent like Zali Steggall” on the voting card, in Mackellar, held by MP Jason Falinski it was 46.2 per cent, while in Wentworth, the seat currently held by MP Dave Sharma, it was 38.3 per cent.

The poll also found climate change was the number one issue of concern among voters in Wentworth (31.9 per cent), North Sydney (30.6 per cent), ahead of economic management and handling of Covid-19.

Simon Holmes a Court. Picture Gary Ramage

Climate change was the number two issue in Mackellar (27.5 per cent), just behind economic management and ahead of handling of Covid-19.

The group said it was heartened by the results which show there was significant support for an independent candidate in all three electorates, if they could find more independents like Zali Steggall to stand.

Wealthy investor Simon Holmes à Court, convener of Climate 200, said another term of major party government will soon have come and gone without the action most voters want on climate change.

“Crossbench independents like Zali Steggall are already holding the major parties to account on the need to accelerate climate action,” he said.

Crossbench MP Zali Steggallat a press conference in April 2020. (AAP Image/Lukas Coch)

“A pro-climate crossbench holding the balance of power is the shortest and surest path to ensuring that the next parliament ends Australia’s lost decade on climate change and makes real inroads on restoring integrity to our political system.

“This polling shows that climate independents are viable in these ‘heartland’ seats. All else remaining equal, voting in three more pro-climate independents at the next election would force either major party to deliver the change Australians want.”

Both Mr Sharma and Mr Zimmerman declined to comment.

However, Mr Falinski responded to the results of the poll by saying he “will let other people play politics and instead focus on issues that matter”.

He said the top three issues in Mackellar were national security, economic security and climate change, the order of which changed day-to-day, depending on whatever was happening at the time.

MP Jason Falinski at Dee Why. (AAP Image / Adam Yip)

He added that traffic and roads would also make a comeback as a concern for residents when lockdown lifts.

He also argued the government was making great strides on climate change claiming it had reduced emissions by 20 per cent, that one in four homes on the beaches now has solar panels and the increase in electric cars on the roads.

“That’s happened through people in government, not driven by anyone on the outside on the crossbench,” Mr Falinski said.

Grassroots group Mackellar Rising, which is highlighting climate change as a major issue in Mr Falinski’s constituency, is advocating for an independent in the seat, but no candidate has yet been announced.

However, Mr Zimmerman recently found out he will face North Sydney’s Independent group candidate Kylea Tink, who has said she will run her campaign largely on climate action.

But it’s not just independents that are gunning for safe Liberal seats, other parties such as The New Liberals are also joining the fray.

Party leader Victor Kline recently announced that he will now stand in North Sydney in the upcoming federal election.

Former McGrath Foundation Managing Director Kylea Tink will run as an independent in North Sydney at the next election. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

The barrister from Crow’s Nest said his party was formed in response to his view that the Liberal Party has moved to the extreme right of politics. “They are now arch conservatives”, Mr Kline said. “We are a real liberal party. We believe in freedom, justice, compassion and equality of opportunity.”

The New Liberals – supported by Malcolm Turnbull’s son Alex because of its stance on anti corruption and climate – is also fielding candidates across the country and in Mackellar, and most likely Wentworth.

The Liberal Party has yet to choose a candidate for Warringah to stand against Ms Steggall.

But a party source said Ms Steggall’s win over Mr Abbott was to some degree a protest vote by some Liberals, who will revert to their normal voting behaviour at the next election.