‘Beyond our control’: BOM defends forecast fail after deadly deluge

The Bureau of Meteorology has defended its failure to predict the magnitude of the flood disaster this weekend, with rainfall in some areas four times what was forecast. SEE THE TIMELINE

The Bureau of Meteorology has conceded it was unable to “forecast” the full extent of the weekend’s deadly deluge which wreaked havoc over parts of Queensland.

While the bureau issued warnings on Friday night for heavy rain and thunderstorms capable of delivering up to 140mm of rain, those predictions were shattered by what transpired over the following hours, with centres around Gympie smashed by walls of water that left one man dead and dozens of others requiring rescue.

Roads and bridges were cut after some weather stations recorded more than half a metre of rain in less than a day as ex-Tropical Cyclone Seth delivered one final fling that lasted from Friday night until Saturday afternoon.

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Facing a media conference on Saturday, BOM meteorologist Laura Boekel said the sheer volume of rain and the behaviour of the storm cell had taken everybody by surprise.

“In terms of this event, (it was) incredibly rare,” she said.

“We very rarely see thunderstorms sustain in a location for such a long period of time. While we were aware that we were expecting thunderstorm activity and we could see heavy rain associated with that, the magnitude of what we saw really escalated through the night.”

The BOM issued a number of weather warnings on its website and through social media across Friday night and into Saturday morning, but none predicted the extent of the rainfall.

Ms Boekel said the volatile weather system had been difficult to anticipate.

“It was a really evolving situation,” she said. “It was a very difficult situation to forecast for. That amount of intensity with a system that just doesn’t move, so while we were aware of some of the risks the exact amount of rainfall was something that we had to monitor instead of forecast. We gave the most amount of warning that we possibly could but we acknowledge that it was a situation that escalated very quickly.”

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk defended the BOM’s forecasts and warnings over the course of the wild weather.

“These things are beyond the bureau’s control,” Ms Palaszczuk said.

“No one was expecting it to sit and stay and produce thunderstorms that were not moving.

“It was an unexpected event from the bureau’s point of view and they were sending out information as it came to hand. They were not expecting this amount of rainfall to happen in such a short period of time.”

WORDS OF WARNING

Timeline of information released by the Bureau of Meteorology

FRIDAY, JANUARY 7

9.58am: Severe thunderstorm warning issued for heavy rainfall between Gayndah and Maryborough.

2.41pm: Severe thunderstorm warning issued for heavy rainfall for parts of Wide Bay and Burnett districts.

3.54pm: Severe thunderstorm warning updated as BOM tracks storm with damaging winds and heavy rainfall northwest of Gympie.

5.01pm: Severe thunderstorm warning updated with storm tracking slowly southwest.

6.30pm: Severe weather warning replaces thunderstorm warning for Wide Bay and Burnett, predicting falls of up to 140mm over the next six hours.

10.17pm: Major flood warning issued for Mary River at Miva and Tiaro. Minor flooding predicted for Maryborough and Gympie by Saturday morning.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 8

6.42am: Severe weather warning update for Wide Bay, Burnett and southeast coast, reporting intense rainfall overnight leading to major flooding with rescues. Forecast for heavy rainfall to continue into the afternoon.

7.24am: Major flood warning for Mary River at Miva and Tiaro and moderate flooding likely in Gympie. Major flooding possible for Maryborough on Sunday.

9.02am: Severe weather warning update. Major flooding for Bundaberg, Gin Gin, Childers, Biggenden, Tiaro, Mt Kanigan and Maryborough.

Originally published as ‘Beyond our control’: BOM defends forecast fail after deadly deluge