Sharri Markson: Malcolm Turnbull’s last big chance at connecting with voters
MALCOLM Turnbull has run up a string of wins, but with a High Court ruling looming and voters concerned about power bills he has to get the electorate to tune in, writes Sharri Markson.
Opinion
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These are unusual times. Chinese President Xi Jinping is warning of world domination. The President of the United States Donald Trump is an after-dark social-media addict.
Lisa Wilkinson is switching television networks.
And the Australian government could crumble if the High Court rules three of its ministers, including the Deputy Prime Minister, are ineligible for office.
If the High Court hands down a detrimental decision on citizenship, Labor could seize the opportunity to move a no-confidence motion against the government.
Labor refuses to discuss its tactics, but leader Bill Shorten is certainly considering the move, however uncouth it may be, with a house of 149 instead of 150.
If Labor did move a vote of no confidence, it still may not succeed, with Bob Katter and the Nick Xenophon candidates likely to abstain or support Turnbull.
But it’s in Shorten’s interest to help the Coalition look as dysfunctional as possible. Shorten knows that moving it would cause chaos and the strategy would upset the government’s political agenda.
If on the off-chance the no confidence motion succeeds, Turnbull could be forced to make the drive to the Governor-General. A disastrous state of affairs.
And yet in face of this uncertainty and daily potential for chaos, Turnbull is, against the odds, holding the Liberal Party together, managing to find solutions to two policies that have torn his colleagues apart for more than a decade — gay marriage and climate change.
He looks set to change the course of history by introducing same-sex marriage, forging a legacy he will one day be proud of.
But the issue that most punters care about is the price of power bills.
This week, Turnbull was victorious once again — in the theatre of Parliament — in finding an energy policy to appease the coal-backing conservatives and the renewable loving progressives in his party, by relying on independent and respected experts to come up with a seemingly sensible approach to emissions and reliability.
There is a disconnect between Turnbull’s parliamentary wins and his public perception.
The Liberal Party doesn’t need Crosby Textor research to know its achievements aren’t getting through to the public. The most common word associated with Turnbull in focus group research is “disappointment”.
Liberal strategists need to work out how to shake this perception, rather than trusting the government’s political wins will speak for themselves.
Dangerously, Newspoll isn’t shifting.
It seems inevitable the number of losses to Labor will hit 30 as voters seem to have made up their mind about the Turnbull government.
Can you blame them?
Karl Stefanovic — on one of his highest-rating shows of the year, the day after Lisa’s shock defection to Ten — gave the PM a free kick with this question: “You’re promising savings of $115 from 2020; how much for example will that bring your power bill down by?”
What a golden opportunity for Turnbull to tell all those viewers just how his policy would drive down their power bills, as well as his own.
But what did he say?
“The advice we have about reducing wholesale power costs, comes from the Energy Security Board. They are forecasting a reduction in wholesale costs, this is the cost of generation, right?
“Which is only part of our power bill at home, because there are network costs — we’re bringing those down — there are retail costs, they’re being carefully examined by the ACCC. You know, there’s a bunch of things …”
I don’t want you to tune out of my column halfway through so I won’t reprint Turnbull’s lengthy prattle on the technicalities of power prices.
It’s reminiscent of Shorten’s indictment of Turnbull’s waffling: “His 300-word slogans must stop!”
If Turnbull cannot telegraph his achievements and convince the public he has the best energy policy possible — even if he gets the states to support the National Energy Guarantee — then what is the point in the high-risk manoeuvre of owning the power price issue?
There is now a clear and present danger. Turnbull has become the Prime Minister for Power Prices.
All the modelling in the world can show that electricity prices will fall by $115 a year from 2020, but no one genuinely believes this will be the outcome.
This is why Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg and Turnbull were reluctant to strongly back the claim, throwing to Australian Energy Market Commission chairman John Pierce to defend the price prediction.
Indications are the energy giants are already planning price hikes of 15 per cent next year. For them, profits not politics are all that matters.
Lowering power prices is a target Shorten is going to hold Turnbull to account.
Heading into an election in 18 months’ time, when bills are even higher than they are now, Shorten will launch attacks on Turnbull for failing to lower electricity bills.
The attacks will bite.
It’s one thing for Turnbull to have swept the energy policy through a fractious party room, the real challenge is showing the public he has delivered for them by making their dreaded energy bill lower than it would be under Labor.