Sharri Markson: Tony Abbott Duracell bunny hoppy to take a stand
TONY Abbott the Duracell bunny has returned. And over the past month, he has had more media coverage than the Prime Minister and Bill Shorten combined.
Opinion
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TONY Abbott the Duracell bunny has returned. In case you hadn’t noticed, the former prime minister is running a one-man election campaign on gay marriage.
Over the past month, he has had more media coverage than the Prime Minister of this country and Bill Shorten combined.
Abbott has seized the wheel of the No campaign, establishing himself as its leader and face.
This was possibly not a strenuous task when those running the No campaign are faceless men and women. The campaign directors will not speak publicly and demand anonymity before communicating with journalists, possibly too embarrassed to put their name to the cause, or concerned for their family’s safety.
Their timidity has left a vacuum for Abbott to step into the spotlight.
With the slogan “It’s OK to say No”, he is holding several events a week, and doing multiple interviews daily. Since the postal survey was announced on August 8, Abbott has done 27 media appearances, from doorstops to columns, radio interviews and campaign events.
The one-sentence postal survey question ... could send the usual factional warfare into overdrive.
Two clear messages are cutting through. The first: that gay marriage is not only about love, but about political correctness, family values and gender identity encompassing non-traditional parenting.
The second: Tony Abbott is the country’s sharpest political campaigner when he’s the underdog. In case anyone had forgotten.
Yet a potentially more significant change is under way: the same-sex marriage survey is redefining political leaders, with crucial implications for preselections. It could shape the next Coalition team.
There are already factional rumblings, with candidates emerging to run against vulnerable members in safer seats — 21 months out from a likely federal election.
Take John Howard’s former seat of Bennelong, which has a margin of 9.7 per cent. John Alexander is expected to retire at the next election, although he has made no formal decision. Some of the lead candidates jostling to replace him are Christopher Pyne’s staff member John Bathgate, City of Sydney councillor Craig Chung and Turnbull’s former chief economist and former Eden-Monaro MP, Dr Peter Hendy.
The one-sentence postal survey question, a simple box-ticking exercise, could send the usual factional warfare into overdrive.
But challenging Abbott would be an own goal.
It will add another layer of complexity to preselections, with the process already expected to change if a plebiscite model, to give members a say, is adopted in November.
Since a group of Liberal MPs moved during the winter parliamentary break to force gay marriage onto the top of the political agenda, the Right have been determined to challenge them in preselection battles.
They claim the MPs betrayed their electorate — some had pledged not to become gay rights’ activists — caused the party disunity, or cost Turnbull precious political capital when he was riding high post Gonski 2.0 and on the issue of national security.
But Moderate leaders have pledged a counter-attack if the Right move against incumbent members over gay marriage.
A senior Moderate source said this would “turn the election into almost a Liberal Party internal referendum on Turnbull and Abbott”.
Despite the chest-beating from those angry at his behaviour, Abbott is protected from a challenge in his own seat, out of party respect for a sitting former prime minister.
However, should the Right challenge incumbent Moderate MPs, Abbott would quickly become vulnerable to challengers in Warringah.
Turnbull holds the view that the postal survey should be the will of the people.
“If the Right were to launch a challenge on members like Jason Falinski or Trent Zimmerman, then perhaps you might see a response and that response would presumably be focused on Tony Abbott and Craig Kelly,” the source said.
Indeed, backbench MP Craig Kelly in Hughes is top of the Moderates’ list — ironically, those in the safest seats face the greatest threat.
Moderate leaders would like to see a fresh member with ministerial potential in Hughes, which now has a margin of 9.3 per cent.
But challenging Abbott would be an own goal. Moderate leaders are conscious if Abbott were de-preselected, he could join the Australian Conservatives as their lead Senate candidate.
This would require conciliation between Abbott and Cory Bernardi, who had a falling-out late last year. Stranger things have happened.
“This Abbott factor wouldn’t play well for a Coalition struggling to hold a one-seat majority,” the source said.
Turnbull is caught in a difficult place. Once he may have passionately campaigned to change the laws for same-sex marriage, as he did with the Republic in 1999, leading the country with a message of positivity.
But he has been largely absent in this debate, his oratorical skills cruelled. He’s not shying away from the topic but he’s not the leading crusader in the debate. And deliberately so.
Turnbull holds the view that the postal survey should be the will of the people and he does not think politicians should lead this debate.
Abbott has no such concerns.
He will lose this campaign. But the loss will be a win, much like his effort against Julia Gillard in 2010, when the hung Parliament was a victory for Abbott.
Similarly, if Abbott can narrow the victory for the Yes campaign, it will be considered a success for him.
He will be emboldened and re-energised, having proven, once again, his effectiveness at political campaign strategy.
Meanwhile, Newspoll continues to head towards 30, ominously taunting Turnbull, a ticking crocodile following Captain Hook.
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