Anzac Day 2024 Weather Report: State by state weather forecast

This just in: Australia has at least an 80 per cent chance of above average temperatures this autumn, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

The Bureau of Meteorology have just released their 2024 autumn long-range forecast. And it seems warmer days and nights are likely, following a summer that is on track to be Australia's third-warmest on record nationally.

It comes in the same week that the BoM announced that the El Nino weather event has ended, and stated that they were uncertain if a La Nina phenomenon would form later this year (as other forecasters have predicted).

You can read more about the long-range autumn forecast and the La Nina predictions below, but before that, let's look at what the forecast looks like for the 2024 Anzac Day public holiday in the capital cities (and as the Bureau is at pains to point out: "it is important to understand that weather forecasts, especially long-range ones, are probabilistic in nature and always carry a certain degree of uncertainty".)

Sydney 

The outlook is reasonably good for the NSW capital. Picture: iStock

At this stage it's meant to be a minimum of 15 degrees Celsius and a top of 22. There's a 40 per cent chance of rain (with 0-1mm possible rainfall). It's forecast to be partly cloudy. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending south to southeasterly during the day.

Melbourne

A top of 16 degrees Celsius and a low of 9 is forecast. There is a high chance of showers (70 per cent), which might not be great news for people planning to head to the dawn service. At this stage it's only 0-2mm forecast, so it might not be too heavy.

Brisbane

The weather is looking pretty peachy for the folk up north. A max of 28 degrees Celsius is forecast and a low of a positively pleasant 18 degrees. There is a slight chance of a shower, likely later in the day.

Hobart

It's looking like a crisp autumn day for Hobart. Picture: iStock

Down south it's looking like a max of 16 degrees Celsius and a low of 9. There's a 20 per cent chance of rain and it's looking like it will be partly cloudy at this stage.

Adelaide

There's a theme emerging across the country here: partly cloudy and a slight chance of a shower. Adelaide is looking at a max of 19 degrees Celsius and a low of 9. 

Perth

Perth is in for a nice one at this stage! No "partly cloudy" for Perth - it's a forecast of "mostly sunny" for our friends in the west. It's forecast to be a max of 24 degrees Celsius and a low of 11.

Darwin

Darwin is - unsurprisingly - in for a pretty hot one. It's forecast to be a max of 35 degrees Celsius and a low of a balmy 25. There's a 30 per cent chance of 0-1mm of rain. 

Canberra

It's forecast to be a maximum of 18 degrees Celsius in Canberra and a minimum of 5. Time to bust the heater out, eh Canberra? There's a 10 per cent chance of rain. 

Bureau of Meteorology's 2024 autumn long-range forecast - how rainy is it going to be?

A mob of kangaroos graze on a football field in the late afternoon

In autumn, there is a 60 per cent to 75 cent chance of below median rainfall for:

• Most of New South Wales– excluding some eastern areas
• Most of Victoria including Melbourne – excluding East Gippsland
• Most of Queensland – excluding parts of the south-east, North Tropical Coast
• Parts of South Australia, including Adelaide, the southeast, east and northeastern border districts
• Northern and eastern Tasmania
• South-west corner of Western Australia including Perth and large parts of the north – excluding most southern and central areas
• Most of the Northern Territory – excluding the Top End and south-west corner

There is a roughly equal chance of above or below median rainfall for:

• Most parts of eastern New South Wales including Sydney, the Hunter and South Coast
• East Gippsland in Victoria
• Most areas of South Australia
• South-eastern Queensland, the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands
• Western Tasmania
• Most of and southern and central Western Australia
• Parts of the Northern Territory's Daly region and south-west corner.

The northern wet season typically continues until the end of April. Heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclones, tropical lows, storms and active monsoon bursts may still occur in the north.

Most of the country is expected to have typical fire potential during autumn.

Bureau says El Nino has ended, unsure about La Nina

El Nino generally brings hotter, drier weather to eastern Australia. Picture: iStock

The El Nino weather event has ended, the Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday, adding that they were uncertain if a La Nina phenomenon would form later this year, as other forecasters have predicted.

The cycle between the two is hugely important for farmers worldwide. El Nino generally brings hotter, drier weather to eastern Australia and Southeast Asia and wetter conditions to the Americas, while a La Nina has the opposite effect.

"El Nino has ended," Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said, after the weather phenomenon had formed in the middle of last year following three years of La Nina.

Warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific cause El Nino and cooler temperatures lead to La Nina, which a U.S. government weather forecaster this month gave a 60 per cent chance of emerging in the second half of 2024.

The sea surface has been cooling since December and oceanic and atmospheric indicators now show the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has returned to neutral, the Australian weather bureau added.

"Climate models indicate ENSO will likely continue to be neutral until at least July 2024," it said, using the formal name, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, that describes the switch between the two phases.

While some climate models predict a flip to La Nina later this year, the bureau said it was uncertain whether this would happen and urged caution about such forecasts.

- With Reuters

Originally published as Anzac Day 2024 Weather Report: State by state weather forecast