Saturday best: Ray and Duff tips and analysis for Royal Randwick

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy preview the Randwick card and are split on a very open Carrington Stakes.

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances in the nine races at Royal Randwick.

ROYAL RANDWICK

RAY’S BEST

BEST BET

R9, No. 5 SUPERIUM

VALUE BET

R5, No. 6 ALL TOO SOON

DUFF’S BEST BETS

R1 No. 2: MOUNT FUJI

R5 No. 9: MUGATOO

R6 No. 3: HELGA

R9 No. 5: SUPERIUM

R1: HANDICAP (1000M)

Dufficy: This is a terrific race but I’m going against the grain here and leaning Mount Fuji’s way. He looked way above average in his trial, settling back early then running terrific sectionals getting home. Although he has only had the one trial I feel from the inside draw over 1000m he is the one to beat. Rulership has had the better grounding with three trials, he is doing the job well and is another well-bred colt. He’s the obvious danger to his stablemate Mount Fuji. Ticket To Ride was arguably the run of the race in the Gimcrack Stakes coming from last to run third. She has the race experience and a nice trial win coming into this race. Mission River looked good racing away in his trial.

Thomas: Rulership impressed me in his recent trial, cruising in front then dashing clear of Prague as the duo gapped their rivals. Rulership ran slick closing sectionals to win convincingly while Prague came out of the trial to win at Canterbury on debut. Rulership is from the all-powerful Snowden stable and I’ve got him on top of stablemate Mount Fuji who has had only the one trial but shaped promisingly finishing a close second. Ticket To Ride comes off a strong trial win and is a talented filly. Mission River is from a noted two-year-old stable and has also trialled well.

R2: TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1100M)

Dufficy: Mr Wong did have a trial before winning first-up last preparation and although he is resuming without a trial I feel there is enough speed up front to give him his chance. I don’t mind the wide draw as it gives him the chance to balance up and wind into this race. It doesn’t look strong and I lean his way. Bellszov Bourke is an improving mare and has looked sharp in both starts this preparation. She should give a great sight again. Expellable comes off a win, is third-up and gets the claim so no knock at all. Velvet Aeroplane has had two trials and should be competitive fresh.

Thomas: Bellszov Bourke is a speedy mare who has returned in great form this summer, winning her maiden easily first-up at Dubbo over 1000m before a dominant win over 1100m at the same track last start. She has brilliant gate speed and gives herself every chance. Mr Wong is a talented sprinter who gets back in his races but has a powerful finishing burst. Suited this track and the booking of Hugh Bowman is a big plus. Expellable did a good job to lead throughout at Mudgee and is an improving sprinters. Velvet Aeroplane resumes here but is trialling well and has the ability to be in the finish.

R3: SKY RACING ACTIVE HIGHWAY (1100M)

Dufficy: Hard to line up Hellenism here as she looks the most talented mare in the race. She is coming back in distance which is the query but she has had three weeks between runs and does look a progressive type. The danger is Golden Avenger. He’s had a month off since beating Expellable who we get a look at in the previous race at the strength of that form. Conspirator was quite dominant at Dubbo and the best of the rest Blitzar. He was in the market first-up at Wagga Wagga and can improve.

Thomas: Golden Avenger, trained by Cameron Crockett, edged out stablemate Expellable at Tamworth when resuming and the runner-up then came out and won at Mudgee. Golden Avenger has won two of his four starts and is a promising young sprinter. Hellenism was a clear last on the turn at Coffs Harbour when her rider switched back to the inside and the mare burst through for a commanding win. Another promising lightly raced sprinter who will be very competitive. Conspirator has a similar race record to Golden Avenger and Hellenism — two wins from four starts — and rates among the main chances. Indicators On hasn’t been far away in three starts this campaign.

Mushaireb returned to form with a tough win on the Kensington track.

R4: HANDICAP (2000M)

Dufficy: Matowi should have won last start after being checked at a vital stage. He’s racing well, drops 3.5kg and should be hard to beat. Dabiyr is a good staying prospect who kept his unbeaten record intact last start. He might want a touch further but could be ready to go right on with the job this preparation. Fun Fact loves to get control and he does so here after a solid run on the Gold Coast. Mushaireb had a confidence-boosting win last start and it is the right time to try him at 2000m

Thomas: Mushaireb returned to form with a tough win on the Kensington track with the runner-up, Reflectivity scoring at Flemington last week to frank the form. Mushaireb probably tucks in behind Fun Fact and will enjoy getting out to 2000m. Dabiyr and Matowi finished fast off the solid tempo to run the quinella last start and both look very hard to beat. White Boots is fitter for recent racing and can run an improved race at odds.

Our Candidate performed exceptionally last time in.

R5: HANDICAP (1600M)

Dufficy: Mugatoo is a very interesting horse, Ray. I loved his trial at Newcastle. He is an import who has never run at less than 2000m but judging by his trial Kris Lees seems to have trained some sprint into his legs. I suspect he is going to be very hard to hold out. The danger is Toryjoy. She loves to lead and comes off a good fighting effort last start. Napoleon Solo, now he is back up to a mile, can improve although he has been a frustrating horse. Mugatoo’s stablemate Our Candidate did a fantastic job winning three staying races last time in and it would not surprise me to see him upset a few here.

Thomas: I’ve got a little wide here with All Too Soon. Her first-up effort to finish fourth behind Phaistos was very good considering she was three-wide without cover and looked to be going backwards on the turn. She rallied in the straight and was closing strongly for fourth. The step up to 1600m suits and if there is any cut in the ground, her chances soar. Mugatoo looks the horse to beat for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. Toryjoy probably gets control here and will take running down. Man Of Peace gets in with only 49kg and is racing in very good form.

R6: HANDICAP (1600M)

Dufficy: I have to stay with Helga. She landed some big bets when jumped from 1200m to 1500m here second-up and should have even more improvement to come. She looks hard to beat in a similar type of race. Seles is down in the weights and after being anchored under 59kg last time. She should run well again. To Your Health is racing consistently and Domed, although she is off a long break, did sprint well first-up last preparation.

Thomas: Missybeel’s win at the midweeks was exceptional. She opened up a huge lead mid-race but showed no signs of stopping, romping home by nearly four lengths. This is obviously a tougher race but she might get control up front again. To Your Health is another mare racing well and she will settle on speed, giving herself every chance. Seles is finding it hard to win but she does drop 5kg which could be significant. It’s hard to find reasons not to like Helga again.

Southern Lad Southern Lad ran a career-best last start.

R7: CARRINGTON STAKES (1400M)

Dufficy: There are six or seven good chances in this race, Ray. I’ve settled on Redouble. He has found his form at his last two starts, he presents well and is ready to win again. He was good finishing second in the Magic Millions Cup, he races well at Randwick so he gets enough ticks. Sambro comes out of the same Gold Coast race as Redouble, finishing third last start but I just query whether he is looking for 1600m now. Southern Lad ran a career-best last start, his figures were fantastic, but having his first start at 1400m now and he is very short. Passage Of Time back to 1400m can control up front and will have his supporters. Cellarman also goes in the quaddie numbers.

Thomas: Southern Lad was just so good last start, chasing a smart type (Special Reward) before striding clear in the closing stages to win with authority. I don’t think the extra distance is any concern, particularly as he gets in on the limit. Redouble will be hard to beat. He has been working up to a win and gets his chance. Passage Of Time will appreciate getting back out to 1400m and Sambro will be charging home. Cellarman and Gaulois are not out of the race, either.

R8: HANDICAP (1100M)

Dufficy: The race of the day. I like Pandemic who created such a huge impression winning his latest trial. With clear running from barrier one he will be hard to hold out. Sir Elton is another promising type and he has looked the part in his recent trials. He also has a big boom on him. Safado is having his first run for the Chris Waller stable after one soft trial and is a huge query. True Detective has been gelded and could well return a better horse this campaign.

Thomas: Agree with you Ronnie, this is going to be an intriguing race. I’ve got this more a match between two talented, emerging sprinters, Pandemic and Sir Elton. Pandemic’s turn of foot to win his recent trial was exceptional and he is set for a big campaign. Similarly, Sir Elton has also looked very sharp in his trials, he is going to be in front of Pandemic in the run and will be hard to catch. Oriental Runner is racing very consistently and is at ridiculous odds at $26. True Detective is one to watch.

R9: EDNEY RYAN GROUP HCP (1400M)

Dufficy: Superium is clearly better than them, he’s found a weak race here. He has a tricky draw but he can make a couple of runs and still win. Laure Me In has been kept fresh since an eye-catching first up run for the new stable. He will be running on again. Nicochet is always a knockout chance and is pretty fit now. Poetic Charmer is going OK and although he hasn’t won for a while this is a race he can figure in the finish.

Thomas: Superium is bet of the day for mine. He ran down Embracer and Splintex over 1100m here then should have beaten Embracer when a luckless second over 1200m on this track. Embracer (and Splintex) has won since franking the form. Superium had a soft trial earlier this week and is ready for 1400m now. I also have Laure Me In running top two with Poetic Charmer and Above And Beyond each way chances.

MORE RACING

NASH RAWILLER: THE RETURN TO GLORY

WEEKEND BEST BETS: IS THERE A DOC IN THE HOUSE?

HAMO’S TIPS: HOW TO WIN IN STYLE

OFF AND RACING: DAVO’S BEST FOR RANDWICK

SATURDAY BEST WITH SHAYNE CASS

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

RACE 5 NO. 11: EXACT REPLICA

Godolphin filly who was $12 into $8.50 when she debuted in a deep 1200m maiden at Gosford on 1200m where she finished fast to be within 2.3-lengths of the winner. Bigger track today suits.

NEXT BEST

RACE 2 NO. 8: CAUDAN

Godolphin filly who bumped into another of Sheikh Mohammed’s – namely Lyre – in a Sale maiden this time 12 months ago! Trialled up very nice indeed in recent weeks.

VALUE BET

RACE 1 NO. 4: MISS FIALKA

Locally trained mare who is very fit and well placed again by her trainer to gain an elusive but well earned win.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

GRANT BUCKLEY

Has six rides today, three of them for James Cummings including our bets bet – Exact Replica.

BEST EXOTIC

QUADDIE

Race 4: 2,9

Race 5: 11

Race 6: 6,10,12,15

Race 7: 1,2,8

FORBES

BEST BET

RACE 1 NO. 1: BUDDABADAH

This will be the son of Zariz’s 20th start today but it should be the day that he breaks his maiden in the most perfect of races for the Yass resident.

NEXT BEST

RACE 6 NO. 5: LE CAVALIER

Placed 28 times with 9 wins from his 86 starts, this tough old campaigner has had a month off to freshen up for the 1400m today. Will be strong late.

Originally published as Saturday best: Ray and Duff tips and analysis for Royal Randwick