Off and Racing: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Royal Randwick
Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race at Royal Randwick — with all the TAB market movers — and why Pandemic’s recent trial ticks all the boxes.
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Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race in search of that elusive winner at Royal Randwick.
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RACE 1: 1.15PM HANDICAP (1000M)
Overview: I liked the way Rulership has looked at the trials and he beat subsequent debut winner Prague easily enough at his latest trial. He seems pretty professional and gets the nod here. Ticket To Ride finished third in the Gimcrack on debut and has trialled well leading in. Mission River has prepped up well with two nice trials and should give a kick on speed, while Tight Ropes also commands respect off the recent Rosehill trial.
Advice: Rulership to win.
TAB market movers: Rulership $3.50-$2.90 ($400 @ $3.50, $434 @ $3.30); Absolutely Foxy $51-$34
RACE 2: 1:50PM HANDICAP (1100M)
Overview: Tough race. Bellszov Bourke is two from two this prep and he gets his chance in a race like this rolling up on speed. Expellable just missed first-up and then was too good second up at Mudgee in fair figures. There is a sense of timing about this horse. Mr Wong is capable if he has ironed out his issues (needs to go straight) and he has a big finish on his day, while there was something about Don’t Cry Mama’s maiden win in the Nothern Rivers last start that suggests this horse has the X-factor. Velvet Aeroplane and Jellies also have claims at odds
Advice: Follow any strong move for Mr Wong if it eventuates.
TAB market movers: No bets or movements of note
RACE 3: 2.25PM HANDICAP (1100M)
Overview: I thought Affinity Beyond looked hard to beat here and she has been very impressive in two wins at 1000m this prep. She ran much quicker time than the other 1000m race on the day first-up and then absorbed a stack of pressure mid race but was still far too good second up. She should get across and lead these. Hellenism was very good first-up but the win was a touch better to the eye than on the clock. He looks the danger nonetheless. Indicators On was runner up behind Affinity Beyond last start and I think that’s the right form, while Golden Avenger also has each-way prospects.
Advice: Affinity Beyond to win.
TAB market movers: Affinity Beyond $3.40-$3 ($300 @ $3.40, $400 @ $3.10, $500 @ $3, $400 @ $3)
RACE 4: 3PM HANDICAP (2000M)
Overview: Open race. I like the way Dabiyr is going this prep and the step up to 2000m should really suit here. He isn’t a horse with a turn of foot but he is a sustained speed type who appreciates a quick tempo upfront. He should get that set up here. Guise pulled up lame last start and can bounce back, while Matowi and Mushaireb are both terrific winning hopes as well.
Advice: Leaning to Dabiyr.
TAB market movers: Dabiyr $3.80-$2.80 ($350 @ $3.80, $380 @ $3.60, $417 @ $3.40); Fun Fact $6.50-$5.50
RACE 5: 3.40PM HANDICAP (1600M)
Overview: There’s no reason why Insensata can’t run a cheeky race at odds. She was good first-up, luckless second up and then worked to the line OK at Flemington last start in a race where the first four around the bend were the first four home. The mile should suit. Mugatoo looks a talent and it’s hard not to be taken by his trial leading in. Toryjoy and Man Of Peace both liked to control the speed out in front so that will be an interesting speed battle. Will one hand up to the other? The tempo should be solid regardless. Valentino Rossa has a great second up record and has been specked at big odds.
Advice: Something small on Insensata.
TAB market movers: Valentino Rossa $51-$21 ($1,500 x $6,000 e/w @ $21/$4.40, $500 @ $21); Deductions: Mushaireb 16c Win 13c Place
RACE 6: 4.20PM BUSHFIRE APPEAL HANDICAP (1600M)
Overview: Helga picks herself here and third up there is still improvement to come. She just needs a touch of luck on the map with speed inside but there should be genuine tempo here and she can probably park off them worst case. Missybeel likes to roll along in front and she actually got a pretty soft lead the other day and was rated perfectly. The win was better to the eye than on the clock as a result though. To Your Health went too hard in front last start and her form prior was solid for this.
Advice: Helga to win.
TAB market movers: Helga $4.40-$2.60 ($300 e/w @ $4.20/$1.75, $360 @ $3.80, $700 @ $2.60): Deductions: All Too Soon 5c Win 6c Place
RACE 7: 5PM CARRINGTON STAKES (1400M)
Overview: Hard to tip against Southern Lad and he was ultra impressive both to the eye and sectionally last start. That was a peak though and he is on trial at the trip (breeding says it’s ok) and he is short enough in betting with those queries. Sambro was wide in the Magic Millions Cup and kept coming to the line, while Redouble was solid in the same race and he might be back on track. Salsonic rates a solid place chance at big odds and he was third first-up to Dreamforce last prep. A repeat of that performance will see him run well here and I love the booking of Tom Marquand (can get a roughie home!). Gaulois and Cellarman both have claims too.
Advice: Southern Lad looks the horse to beat but Salsonic looms as a cheeky place chance.
TAB market movers: Southern Lad $3.80-$2.70 ($300 @ $3.70, $385 @ $3.60)
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RACE 8: 5.40PM HANDICAP (1100M)
Overview: I love the way Pandemic has trialled leading in and he is going to be hard to hold out late. He came a long way in his first racing prep and the only concern is how far he gets back in the run. Sir Elton has a bit of a boom on him and his recent trials have been good. He will be up on speed here and should give a strong kick. Safado is now with the Chris Waller yard and should finish off strongly, while All Cylinders has won his past three starts and there’s no reason he can’t win again.
Advice: Pandemic to win.
TAB market movers: Pandemic $4.20-$2.80 ($500 @ $4.20, $370 @ $3.70, $400 @ $3.50, $400 @ $3.30, $500 @ $3.10, $500 @ $3, $450 @ $3 TWICE, $500 @ $2.90, $5,000 @ $2.80, $1,000 @ $2.70)
RACE 9: 6.15PM HANDICAP (1400M)
Overview: Superium has been heavily backed in early betting and he does look the one to beat. He is looking for 1400m and he finds a really winnable race. He did have a slight hiccup when missing Magic Millions Day when found to be lame in the morning but he is obviously over that and ready to go. Nicochet found the line really well last start but just comes back slightly in trip here. Come Along might also be looking for a bit further but still has claims, while Charretera is always thereabouts in a race like this but is struggling to win.
Advice: Superium on top but pretty skinny in betting now.
TAB market movers: Superium $2.70-$1.95 ($550 @ $2.70, $667 @ $2.50, $2,000 @ $2.15, $2,000 @ $2.10, $2,500 @ $1.95). Deductions: Man Of Peace 4c Win 4c Place.
BEST OF THE BEST
RAY THOMAS
Superium (race 9)
Pretty smart performer who looks ideally placed jumping up to 1400m. Was a controversial scratching at the Gold Coast on Magic Millions Day and think his trainer Joe Pride is keen to make a statement here. Has conditions to suit and looks too good.
SIMON THOMAS
Southern Lad (race 7)
Racing in career best form. Created a big impression last start over the 1200m when running a slick 1.09.10 and final 200min 11.10. Untried at the 1400m but gives every indication he’ll run it out, being by Ocean Park. On the limit weight and should prove too strong for these.
SHAYNE O’CASS
Pandemic (race 8)
Exciting Godolphin colt back at the beginning of what is entitled to be an ambitious autumn campaign given this horse’s obvious talent and promise. Shown himself to possess an X-Factor and he trialled like a bomb the other morning.
MATT JONES
Pandemic (race 8)
This Godolphin runner looks primed for a big first-up run after a slashing trial. He just needs a little luck from an inside draw and he can explode past them.