Gold Coast races: Nathan Exelby’s tips and analysis

Racing editor Nathan Exelby and the bookmaking team from Ladbrokes pinpoint the horses to back and ones to avoid in the heavy going at the Gold Coast. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS

Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at the Gold Coast, with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

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GOLD COAST

Track: Heavy (8)

Weather: Chance of some further rain.

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BETS

Fisticuffs, Race 2, $2.30

Gem Of Scotland, Race 7, $3.80

VALUE

Red Stina, Race 3, $17

Removal, Race 6, $9

MULTIPLES

Gold Coast, Race 9

BOX TRI/F4

3 Defence Missile, 6 Polemic, 9 Tokoriki Lad, 12 Peppi La Few, 16 Red Chase

Quinella, Race 3, Box3 Red Stina, 5 Gracie Belle, 14 Trail Of Glory

LADBROKES SUMMARY

BEST BACKED

Peppi La Few, Race 9, $4.40-$3.10

Oink, Race 8, $26-$16

Happy Go Plucky, Race 4, $34-$20

Trail Of Glory, Race 3, $9.50-$7

Fisticuffs, Race 2, $2.40-$2.30

LAY OF THE DAY

Fisticuffs, Race 2, $2.30

BEST BET

In His Stride, Race 8, $41

DOWN SOUTH

Benitoite, Rosehill, Race 7, $34-$18

Regal Power, Caulfield, Race 7, $13-$11

LATEST BETTING: LADBROKES.COM.AU

RACE 4: GOLD COAST STAKES

1800M, OPEN HCP, 2.18PM

Nathan says: Eric The Eel is a talent, but looks short enough stepping up to Open company here. He was well placed in a Class 3 Plate last time, but his rivals there would all be 100-1 in this. On the plus side, he’s got more upside than his rivals here and he’s going to revel at 1800m. Still, I think he’s short enough at his current quote. Mongolian Wolf hadn’t won for a long time but put the writing on the wall with two good efforts in Sydney and won well last time. Hoping the step back to 1800m will be offset by a testing track, which he will relish. Magnufighter was brave getting no favours last time. Chance again. Also thought New Universe could run an improved race on wet ground here.

Ladbrokes say: Some specking for Happy Go Plucky ($34-$20) and Gresham ($18-$15). Eric The Eel has been solid at $3.70. This is an interesting test for Eric against the older horses. With the wet track and some good older horses, we thought this was a much tougher ask for him.

THE PLAY: Mongolian Wolf and New Universe can give it a shake.

Superstar youngster Rothfire should continue his winning ways.

RACE 5: AQUIS QTIS JEWEL 2YO

1200M, 2YO, 2.57PM

Nathan says: Not much to say about Rothfire that already hasn’t been said! He’s the most exciting two-year-old in the state and keeps putting quick times on the board, with big margins through the beaten division. Settles well enough to see out 1200m, so the only possible hurdle would be whether he handles the wet ground or not. He’s hardly a betting proposition at $1.10, but hopefully he puts on another spectacle. Kisukano was brave behind Rothfire and then gave her filly rivals a caning a fortnight back. She looks a good thing to finish second. Mishani Fraudster and Safework can round out the first four.

Ladbrokes say: We haven’t had a fluctuation change. Everything is the same as when we went up. There’s been a sprinkle of bets for Mishani Fraudster the place at $2.45, which we don’t think is a bad play. He really chased the favourite home strongly last time. Rothfire is $1.10 and we doubt you will get that much better on the day.

THE PLAY: Only for bank tellers.

RACE 6: CANADIAN CLUB & DRY

900M, OPEN HCP, 3.37PM

Nathan says: Spurcraft comes off a run well below his best and there wasn’t a whole lot between the ones coming through the Boom Chicka Boom race, so I’ve gone looking elsewhere. Think Removal measures up here. He has a ripper fresh record, has no issues on wet ground and proved himself up to similar class with a couple of nice beaten efforts during the summer carnival. Should sit behind the hot speed here and have plenty to offer. The early favourite Usmanov looks short enough. He’s stepping way up in grade here and while he has potential, think he’s entitled to be better odds.

Ladbrokes say: Always an exciting race to watch these 900m, but not always the best betting races. Bandipur has been $31-$21 and Tycoon Ace $8.50 into $8. We thought the punters might be on the mark with him, he loves the Coast, goes well in the wet there and the barrier mightn’t mean a lot in these conditions. Spurcraft has been solid at $4.80.

THE PLAY: Removal makes strong appeal at the $9/$3.

Gem Of Scotland will be suited by the soft conditions.

RACE 7: TAB QTIS JEWEL 3YO

1200M, 3YO, 4.17PM

Nathan says: Gem Of Scotland is just a ripping good filly. She has won six of nine and in the defeats, had excuses. Gave 5kg to Ballistic Boy when last seen and towelled him up. He then went and ran very well in the $1m Bondi. Given she’s proven out to 1400m, don’t think the 1200m first up should hold any fears for her, plus she grew a leg the day she struck genuinely wet ground. Rex Lipp has given her a trial and a jumpout to have her ready to roll. Making Guntantes the danger. He beat The Odyssey easily on debut on wet ground, so should cope with that and the trial behind Chapter And Verse was good. The Odyssey will be fitter, but just thinking the other two have more upside.

Ladbrokes say: Gem Of Scotland is a popular filly and she’s $4 into $3.80. The Odyssey has been $4.50 into $4.40. The Odyssey won the two-year-old version last year on a wet track and Gem Of Scotland has the good record, but we are giving a knockout hope to Raging Pole ($34) given his liking for the track and wet.

THE PLAY: Gem Of Scotland and saving Guntantes.

RACE 8: GOLDMARKET

1300M, QTY HCP LR, 5PM

Nathan says: Grey Missile and Manaya rate highly off their last start stoush, with Grey Missile getting the weight swing, plus having the more compelling wet track credentials. He will coast across easily from the wide gate and be hard to get past. That said, Chapter And Verse comes back in grade here. He’s one of Queensland’s best sprinters and this is a long way from Queensland’s best sprint. He usually goes like a bomb fresh, he handles wet ground and has a liking for the Coast track. Desleigh Forster has given a solid hitout in a recent trial to prepare for this. Think there’s plenty of depth if it’s not him with chances including Firsthand, Oink and Top Striker.

Ladbrokes say: Good betting race. Oink has been $26 into $16. Prioritise $14 into $11 and Grey Missile $5 into $4.80. Some nice Queensland horses here, but we have a knockout we are giving a chance to — In His Stride at $41. Never runs a bad race at the Gold Coast.

THE PLAY: Chapter And Verse ($6) on top in an open race.

There has been a little bit of money for Oink at odds

RACE 9: COCA-COLA PLATE

1400M, C6 SW, 5.35PM

Nathan says: Peppi La Few grew a leg when he was allowed to run along last start. Presume Brad Stewart adopts similar tactics here from another wide draw. Whether he handles the ground or not is the query. If he does, he’s hard to run down. Defence Missile is some query at 1400m, but he’s back in peak form now and think the confidence of last week’s win will enable him to go on with it now. Red Chase was awful last time, but suspect he’s been wanting some give in the ground. 1400m is his go and don’t be surprised to see a big form reversal. Giving a knockout hope to Polemic at massive odds. Handles wet ground and comes off a career best prep.

Ladbrokes say: This has been the best backed runner all day, Peppi Le Few, $4.40 into $3.10. Seentoomany has been $4.80 to $4.20. We are hoping this might be a bit of a lottery with the track cut up by this time we thought Sister Patti at $41 might be a knockout. Red Chase is also getting to a price where we give it a good hope at $9.

THE PLAY: Peppi La Few is short enough. Prefer Defence Missile, Red Chase and even Polemic at bigger odds.

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

“She’s up there with the best I’ve had. Not too many have done what she’s done at this stage of her career. I have no doubt she’s going to be very competitive.”

— Rex Lipp, Gem Of Scotland, Race 7

“She’s come back bigger and stronger and is now showing me what I thought she was capable of doing all along.”

— Rex Lipp, Red Stina, Race 3

“He won’t be leading, but he should be a bit closer than usual. The winter is just around the corner and he should play some role, but whether that is in the top races remains to be seen.”

— Desleigh Forster, Chapter And Verse, Race 8

“She won the trial by five lengths in her normal way of bowling along in front.”

— Tony Gollan, Sugar Boom, Race 7

“I don’t want it too wet for him, but he is very close to a good win.”

— Tony Gollan, Baby Boomer, Race 7

“He was super. I was genuinely upset because he was so tough (last start). He will have to be tough again, but he is at his best trip – five of (his 10 wins) have been at 1300m.”

— Trent Edmonds, Grey Missile, Race 8

“It is a field of tough old campaigners who have been around for a while, so it is a good test. Let’s face it, if he can’t run well against these, he can’t win an Australian Derby. I am not saying he has to win, but I do want him to race well to earn a trip.”

— Stuart Kendrick, Eric The Eel, Race 4

MORE RACING ANALYSIS

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