Form analyst Tom Hackett takes a look at the Sunshine Coast program

Ladbrokes form analyst Tom Hackett has nailed down his top picks for the meeting at the Sunshine Coast. Plus, check out which horses punters have loaded up on in the market watch.

Ladbrokes form analyst Tom Hackett looks at the big day on the Sunshine Coast as he homes in on a few promising types.

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SUNSHINE COAST

Track: Soft (6)

Rail: True entire course

Weather: 31C, Fine.

TOM’S BEST BETS

QUEEN KAY (Race 3) @ $2.05

BETTER REFLECTION (Race 8) @ $2.70

ZIEMBA (Race 10) @ $4.40

BEST VALUE

DREAM MASTER (Race 6) @ $7

GREY MISSILE (Race 7) @ $11

LADBROKES MARKET WATCH

BEST BACKED

SPURCRAFT (Race 5) $2.90-$2.40

OTHERS

FOMO (Race 6) $26-17

SCALLOPINI (Race 9) $8.50-$7

BOOKIES BEST BET

GRACIE BELLE (Race 6)

LAY OF THE DAY

DOCTOR ZOUS (Race 7)

RACE 5: COASTLINE BMW X1 HCP

1000M, OPEN, 2.52PM

TOM SAYS: Tarzan has an outstanding record over this track and distance. He has scored 10 wins from 16 starts and maps to get a lovely run in transit from barrier three with Baylee Nothdurft in the saddle. I can’t get Spurcraft as short as his current price, but there is no doubt he is one of the leading contenders. The Jet Spur gelding has scored four wins from his five starts over 1000m. Guard Of Honour beat Spurcraft at the Gold Coast last start and there is no reason that he won’t be in the mix again. Whypeeo hasn’t fired this campaign, but his best form would have him right in this contest.

BOOKIES SAY: It has been one-way traffic for Spurcraft. He has firmed from $2.90 into $2.40. Spurcraft comes into this race very well in at weights with the 3kg claim. Our punters love this horse and we expect them to keep coming for him. He looks to have plenty in his favour and we won’t be taking any risks with him.

THE PLAY: Happy to back Tarzan.

RACE 6: COASTLINE BMW X3 HCP

1200M, NO METRO WINS, 3.32PM

TOM SAYS: Dream Master has been freshened up for this contest and has an excellent chance to return to winning form. Ron Stewart will push forward from the wide barrier and give his rivals something to chase. Winter Passage is flying this campaign and was very impressive at Doomben last start. She should run well again. Gracie Belle returned to the races with a strong win and this isn’t that much tougher. This is a step-up in class for Hold On and it will be interesting to see how she fares. She is a proven winner that still has some serious upside.

BOOKIES SAY: Gracie Belle has been popular early, as she was when winning first-up. The specking around for Fomo suggests he is ready to run a good race. We think Gracie Belle looks like a mare on the way up and is the one to beat.

THE PLAY: Dream Master is great value at his current price.

RACE 7: COASTLINE BMW X5 HCP

1200M, NO METRO WINS, 4.12PM

TOM SAYS: Coral Bay is a track and distance specialist. Four of his seven wins have come over the 1200m course at the Sunshine Coast. Doctor Zous can’t be ruled out, but he does look under the odds at his current price. He would need to improve on his last start effort to be a genuine winning chance. Grey Missile flopped first-up, but he is a better horse than that run suggests. His second-up record is excellent and he can bounce back to his best. All Eez brings winning form into this race and should get a nice run in transit with Steph Thornton in the saddle.

BOOKIES SAY: Punters aren’t interested in this race and there has been no early betting action of note. This is a race we will look to take on the runners at the top of the market, like Doctor Zous and Ramtastic. Rapido Gris is a three-year-old who has showed promise and should be very competitive

THE PLAY: Happy to back both Coral Bay and Grey Missile at the current price.

Better Reflection wins at Doomben last September.

RACE 8: COASTLINE BMW X4 HCP

1000M, 3YO HCP, 4.50PM

TOM SAYS: Better Reflection is deserving of her status as a clear favourite. On her best form, she does have a clear ratings edge over the rest of this field. Devil’s Temptation is never far away. He has finished in the placings in five of his six starts and looks like the main danger. Go Deep won well at Eagle Farm before being sent to the spelling paddock. He clearly has some ability. Magic Trick maps to get a lovely run from barrier four and should get the last crack at them.

BOOKIES SAY: Better Reflection and Betaima are the two punters have zeroed in on here. We are not doubting her ability, but we can see Better Reflection ending up back on the rail over the 1000m and there are enough with good ability here that we will be prepared to risk the favourite.

THE PLAY: Better Reflection is one of the best bets of the day.

RACE 9: SUNSHINE COAST CUP

1400M, QUALITY HCP, 5.30PM

TOM SAYS: This is a typically open edition of the Sunshine Coast Cup. Chapter And Verse is the class runner in this field and this is probably the weakest race that he has contested in some time. He should have every possible chance in the run. Niccanova is capable of a high-rating performance on his day and he was very tough to win at Eagle Farm last start. Tyzone hasn’t won this preparation, but he finished second in the Stradbroke Handicap earlier this year and clearly has ability on his day. River Racer doesn’t win out of turn, but can be competitive in this contest.

BOOKIES SAY: This is a big field of quality gallopers that the punters can’t sort out, which makes it a great race for bookmakers with plenty of in-form horses popular with the punters. We have no great opinion on this race and will just wait and see what the punters do closer to jump time

THE PLAY: I like Chapter And Verse at the current price.

Michael Rodd rides Ziemba to victory at Eagle Farm last month.

RACE 10: COASTLINE BMW X6 HCP

1600M, 3YO HCP, 6.05PM

TOM SAYS: Robert Heathcote could very easily train the trifecta in the final race of the day. Ziemba is a horse that I have plenty of time for and he can return to winning form in this contest. He will need some luck in running, but I am confident that he is the best horse in this field. His stablemate Mosshiki must be respected. He never runs a bad race and I like the fact that he is on the quick back-up. Stuttering has recorded two wins from three starts at the Sunshine Coast and he should get a lovely run just behind the leaders from barrier three.

BOOKIES SAY: There has been a bit of specking around for a few horses outside of those at the top of the market. The two Heathcote three-year-olds dominate the market and the stable has three of the top four in the market. We think Mosshiki is the pick of them off the seven-day break and can atone for the narrow defeat last start. Badoosh is one we have plenty of time for and if they overcook the speed early, he should be powering home late.

THE PLAY: Ziemba can help punters finish the day on a positive note.

FROM THE HORSE’S MONTH

“We had a look at all factors why he was beaten at his past two runs and we felt we needed to claim on him this time. He appeared to have every chance at Eagle Farm but he did cop a bump at the start and he’s never been to Eagle Farm before. I’ve heard from a few trainers that some horses need to have a run at Eagle Farm first.”

— Charlotte White, Spurcraft (Race 5)

“Unfortunately, Ringo’s A Rockstar injured a suspensory ligament at his last start. It wasn’t serious as those types of injuries go but we gave him plenty of time off. There is no use taking risks with good horses.”

— Wayne Stephens, Ringo’s A Rockstar (Race 5)

“It was an amazing win in the Bernborough. He’s never led in his life but Jimmy Orman had no other option as it was either lead or get caught three deep.”

— Steve Tregea, Niccanova (Race 9)

“He has won three times at 1400 metres and missed a place only once at the distance. He is also unbeaten in three starts on soft tracks.”

— Steven O’Dea, Scallopini (Race 9)

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