Mick McGuane: Melbourne’s leaders must erase memories of preliminary final ‘horror show’ to keep finals hopes alive
Melbourne heads back to the scene of last year’s preliminary final horror show on Friday, desperate to keep its campaign alive. Mick McGuane says the Demons’ leaders must withstand a ‘tsunami of pressure’ is they are to emerge victorious.
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Melbourne heads back to the scene of last year’s preliminary final “horror show” this round, desperate to keep its 2019 campaign alive.
Last September’s 66-point loss to West Coast wasn’t quite ‘A Nightmare on Elm Street’; it was more like the Perth Stadium version of ‘Chainsaw Massacre’ — complete with an early ambush, more than a few casualties and limited fightback the other way.
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And like any ‘slasher flick’ sequel, we will see a host of different faces for the Demons to the side that took on the Eagles last year. In fact, almost half the team didn’t play in that prelim final, a sign of their long injury list.
It has been two months of “hell” for the Demons in 2019, with key players injured or out of form, and with their 2018 brand reduced to a pale imitation.
Unless they can reverse the trend, the chances of a second successive finals campaign will likely go out the window.
GOODY’S DEFENSIVE EMPHASIS
Simon Goodwin has had the good sense to make an important in-season adjustment in an effort to stem the Demons’ ills.
In fairness, he hasn’t had much choice.
Goodwin has adopted the mantra ‘defence is king’ across the past three weeks as he has looked to make much-needed defensive changes.
He has changed things structurally, demanding more pressure around the ball and creating a better inside/outside balance around stoppages, which has made the team a more difficult proposition to score against than in the first five rounds.
Melbourne gave up an average of 103 points from Rounds 1-5.
Since Round 6 — against Richmond, Hawthorn and Gold Coast — the Demons have cut it back to 73. That’s a five-goal difference.
Those structural changes behind the ball can be implemented from owning territory. They are still a big inside 50m team.
The use of a ‘goalkeeper’ (it has been Sam Frost, Oscar McDonald, Jordan Lewis or Christian Salem), to squeezing the ground to cover the outlets out of their forward 50 and by keeping power at the ball.
Without heat on the ball, you just don’t build trust and therefore defensive structures become compromised.
The Demons can’t allow the Eagles to gain control of the ball, and get their kick-mark style happening.
If West Coast play the way they want to, Melbourne’s tackle count could mirror its miserable tally of 34 in last year’s preliminary final — their worst result of 2018.
The Demons want a chaos game; the Eagles want to control the tempo, so Goodwin needs to ensure his team keep the ball alive and deprive the Eagles of their ability to mark at will.
Take a look at the third quarter of the Hawks’ clash a fortnight ago — the Demons outscored their opponents 5.5 to 2.0 off the back of dominating contested possessions (+6) and uncontested possessions (+27).
Their balance inside/outside the contest was right.
Another aspect of their improved defence is the positioning of Max Gawn. He must push behind the ball to nullify the three West Coast talls — Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Oscar Allen — but he needs extra help in the ruck.
LEADERS MUST MAKE A STAND
The players who had poor returns in the preliminary final know who they are. If they don’t, I’m prepared to tell them straight.
Let’s start at the top.
Co-captains Jack Viney and Nathan Jones had days to forget against the Eagles, as did Max Gawn, who was targeted by a tsunami of pressure.
Their pride will dictate a spike in performances because a poor final can often act as a form of inspiration/motivation to ensure it doesn’t happen again.
It is no coincidence these three guys are important leaders. If their team ever needed them to have a big game — as they usually deliver — tonight’s the night.
They know that. The footy world knows that. They know they are under the microscope.
A BETTER SET OF NUMBERS
Points conceded from the defensive half of the ground has been cut from 43 points down to 27 in the last three weeks.
That’s nearly a three goal improvement by stopping the opposition transitioning the ball from one end to the other.,
Owning the footy against West Coast is a key to beating them. The Demons’ ball security in last year’s prelim was extraordinarily poor — to allow the Eagles to score 81 of their 121 points from turnovers was unforgivable.
In Rounds 6 to 8 this year, the opposition on average has only 47.3 points from turnover.
On turnover, Melbourne must cover the exits if the ball is won by the Eagles. They need to reference the next go-to player West Coast want to give the ball who will look to create play on from marking situations to present overlap opportunities.
There can be no lapses in concentration. If that happens, the Eagles’ forward line will be a nightmare to defend.
BETTER EFFICIENCY INSIDE 50M
This is an area the Demons have been working on at training in recent weeks, and so they should, given last week’s 8.13 came from 66 entries.
That’s 12 per cent of goals scored per inside 50 entries — which is a massive concern.
They have had 465 inside 50s for only 80 goals this year, running at about 17 per cent. At the same time their collective opposition has kicked 110 goals from 423 entries.
So the Demons have had 42 more entries than their opponents, yet kicked 30 fewer goals.
They CANNOT bomb it long into attack, and allow Jeremy McGovern, Shannon Hurn and Tom Barrass to control the air.
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The last three rounds have seen the Demons have 171 entries for only 25 goals, so there is plenty of work to do.
Lowing the eyes and honouring hit-ups with a smaller, more dynamic forward line, considering their injury plight, is the answer.
There is no better time to start than in front of a live Australia-wide audience.
It could be the turning point of their season. A win would likely be one of the best in Goodwin’s coaching career.
Or, if it doesn’t work, tonight could be yet another remake of ‘Scream’.
Originally published as Mick McGuane: Melbourne’s leaders must erase memories of preliminary final ‘horror show’ to keep finals hopes alive
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