AFL SuperCoach: The players to target to nail the SuperCoach bye rounds
The first bye is only a month away and every trade you make in the next four weeks should be done with an eye on the trickiest period of the year. Which of this week’s top targets will help you thrive during the byes? UPDATED SURVIVAL GUIDE
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You might be looking at the bye rounds as tomorrow’s problem.
After all, Round 12 hardly seems like an issue when you’ve got another eight trades to make before six teams have a week off.
But as we approach a period when many of the sought-after premiums have dropped to an enticing price, decisions on which players you bring in will determine how you navigate the trickiest three weeks of the campaign.
It’s an important factor to consider this week with Carlton’s Liam Stocker ($126,300, Mid), his teammate Sam Walsh ($439,000, Mid) and Jack Macrae ($574,000) figuring prominently in trades.
Stocker and Walsh will play in the first two weeks of the byes, pending selection, while Macrae has a week off in Round 12.
If you’re looking at a fallen premium such as Clayton Oliver ($568,000) after his 175 against Gold Coast, you need to be mindful he shares the Round 13 bye with a host of popular premiums.
The bye rounds shouldn’t be the ultimate factor in your trade calls, but without considering them you risk squandering your good work from the first 11 rounds.
ROUND 12
Byes: Essendon, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
The first of the byes for 2019 doesn’t take too many of the most popular SuperCoach selections off the table.
If you’re still holding Tom Liberatore after his indifferent form in the past three weeks, try to keep him until at least Round 12.
You’ll then have three trades to reassess how you are placed and whether Libba’s potential 70-100 score might set you apart in a league match or help you climb the overall rankings.
The absence of Nat Fyfe, Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae will hurt many teams, while those who missed the boat on top-two forward Travis Boak will get some grace when Port Adelaide has a week off. If you still have any of Port Adelaide’s rookies — Xavier Duursma, Zak Butters, Willem Drew or Connor Rozee — Round 12 would be the time to wave goodbye to them.
Duursma, Drew and Rozee loom as simple upgrades, especially if you have a fallen premium in your sights.
TRADE TIP: Don’t target any players who will be missing in Round 13. With Patrick Dangerfield, Tim Kelly, Isaac Heeney, Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy and a host of other stars to be absent, you can’t afford to be bringing in more points which will end up sitting on your bench a week later.
TOP PLAYERS MISSING
Tom Liberatore (33.7% of teams)
Tom Rockliff (30.8% of teams)
Jack Macrae (26.7% of teams)
Nat Fyfe (35.7% of teams)
James Worpel (22% of teams)
Travis Boak (22% of teams)
James Sicily (16.1 % of teams)
Marcus Bontempelli (15.4% of teams)
Zach Merrett (5.4% of teams)
Dylan Shiel (7.6% of teams)
PREMIUMS TO TARGET
Whoever you bring in for Round 12 is going to miss one of the next two weeks. Your trade targets will ultimately come down to the structure of your team, but the popularity of Round 13 players suggests bringing in those who will be available for the first two weeks of the byes would be the best move. Josh Kelly had a delayed start to the year but has been flying since returning to the GWS Giants team, while his teammates Lachie Whitfield and Stephen Coniglio are both premium options, although Coniglio has been playing forward in recent weeks. Rory Laird doesn’t have a bye until Round 14, while Matt Crouch is another reliable scorer who will play in Round 13. Just be mindful you won’t have access to these players in the last week of the byes, although you’ll have six trades to compensate.
VC/C OPTIONS
Lock in Patrick Dangerfield or Tim Kelly as VC on Friday night or use Patrick Cripps or Lachie Neale when Carlton plays Brisbane Lions on Saturday. The byes provide greater flexibility for loopholes and if you are carrying players who have a weekend off, you can use them to place your VC on a player later in the round such as Coniglio or Josh Kelly. All eyes will be on the Max Gawn-Brodie Grundy battle on the Monday of a four-day Round 12.
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ROUND 13
Byes: Brisbane Lions, Geelong, Collingwood, Melbourne, Sydney Swans, West Coast
The round most SuperCoaches are dreading. Some of the most popular and dependable picks will be missing and thousands of benches will have millions of dollars on them through the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy, Isaac Heeney and Lachie Neale. This shapes as the most difficult round of the season, but if you can bank some money in preparation to bring in the likes of Travis Boak, Nat Fyfe, Jack Macrae or Marcus Bontempelli you’ll gain an edge over other coaches. Don’t be afraid to use your Round 12 trades on rookies to build your bank. It could give you the impetus to make a huge jump in Round 13.
TRADE TIP: Prepare for this round by building your bank by downgrading to rookies with the best job security who become available from Round 7 onwards, such as Liam Stocker. While it’s important to be making money, you’ll need as many scoring players as you can get to maximise your score during the bye rounds.
TOP PLAYERS MISSING
Patrick Dangerfield (72% of teams)
Brodie Grundy (50.2% of teams)
Max Gawn (48% of teams)
Isaac Heeney (37.7% of teams)
Lachie Neale (34% of teams)
Jake Lloyd (32.4% of teams)
Tim Kelly (27.4% of teams)
Clayton Oliver (23.8% of teams)
Shannon Hurn (10.9% of teams)
Adam Treloar (10.4% of teams)
Tom Stewart (5.6% of teams)
Josh Kennedy (1.2% of teams)
PREMIUMS TO TARGET
Use your three trades to bring in players who have already had their bye and will be available for the rest of the season. Topscoring midfielders Nat Fyfe, Marcus Bontempelli Jack Macrae should be your No. 1, 2 and 3 targets, while Travis Boak (forward) and James Sicily (defence) would be wise investments to bolster the other key areas of your team.
VC/C OPTIONS
Zach Merrett plays on Friday against Hawthorn, while Nat Fyfe is up against Port Adelaide on Saturday. Patrick Cripps plays against Jack Macrae’s Western Bulldogs on Saturday. With only one Sunday game, you’ll need to have made your VC pick by Saturday night. Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield will be top captain picks on Sunday when North Melbourne plays GWS Giants. Use the likes of Patrick Dangerfield or Brodie Grundy from your bench to bring Fyfe, Cripps or Macrae into play on the Saturday. If you have Grundy and Max Gawn, you can chuck the C on one of them if your vice-captain fires as they both aren’t playing.
ROUND 14
Byes: Adelaide, Carlton, Gold Coast, GWS Giants, North Melbourne, Richmond
Breathe a sigh of relief. Most of the popular SuperCoach premiums are back and if you planned your trades properly, you should be able to easily cover the 18 players you need to field this round. This is the week to look at trading Sam Walsh if you held the No. 1 draftee for bye cover. You don’t want to be trading the likes of Cripps, Whitfield, Coniglio or Kelly, so ensure you plan for them to sit on your bench for a week.
TRADE TIP: With no coming byes to worry about after Round 14, use your two trades to make your team as strong as possible for the final bye of the season. If you can make three upgrades you’ll be on a winner, but adding one rookie and two top picks will be a more likely strategy for most coaches. Watch the break evens closely and if you can add a player whose price is headed north, jump on and have them rise heading toward the business end of the season.
TOP PLAYERS MISSING
Sam Walsh (73.1% of teams)
Patrick Cripps (59.3% of teams)
Brodie Smith (43.3% of teams)
Lachie Whitfield (37.7% of teams)
Rory Laird (34.9% of teams)
Stephen Coniglio (20.2% of teams)
Matt Crouch (14.1% of teams)
Rory Sloane (11% of teams)
Josh Kelly (3.4% of teams)
Ben Cunnington (1.3% of teams)
PREMIUMS TO TARGET
Take your pick. Patrick Dangerfield is already in most teams, while his teammate Tim Kelly has been gaining popularity as he surges toward the No. 1 forward ranking. If you’ve been eyeing Sam Menegola after his price plummeted, reward your patience this week if he’s shown any signs of a form revival. You might get the POD midfielder from Geelong for about $400,000. This is the week to start planning for Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy if you didn’t start the ‘set and forget’ ruck duo, while Sydney’s prolific half-back flanker Jake Lloyd should be high on your shopping list. He’s looming large as the No. 1 defender again.
VC/C OPTIONS
Zach Merrett is likely to cop attention from Mark Hutchings in the first game of the round, so look elsewhere. Max Gawn will be favoured to rack up a huge score against either Rory Lobb or Sean Darcy, while Lachie Neale might cop attention from Jack Steele on Saturday but still appears a safe bet. Brodie Grundy will be a popular captaincy pick when he takes on Tim English on Sunday. Grundy scored 160 against the Bulldogs in Round 4.
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