Qld state high school enrolments surge | Full list
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The state government could open more vertical schools or expand existing campuses to cope with enrolment surges in its most in-demand regions, with one of its largest schools trending towards having 4800 students by 2027.
An exclusive Sunday Mail analysis of official department of education trends has given insight to how public high school enrolments are set to change in four years time.
An extra 12,000 students are set to be welcomed into Queensland’s state system by 2027, on top of the 574,000 current complement.
To cope with the increased demand, the state government says it will look to unlock land for new schools, expand existing sites and consider more vertical solutions.
The trends show three of Queensland’s largest schools in Marsden State High School, Stretton State College and Mansfield SHS, are set to swell to by more than 500 enrolments each.
Marsden alone is trending towards having 4821 students in 2027, while Stretton and Mansfield will have nearly 4000 each.
While the majority of school trends are steady, some larger public schools are set to shrink, including North Lakes, Chancellor and Meridan state colleges and Helensvale State High School.
The state’s newest high schools such as Fortitude Valley State Secondary College, Bellbird Park and Mango Hill state high schools will naturally boom in enrolments as they become fully operational.
Brisbane-based economist Gene Tunny said schools with enrolments in excess of 3000 students tended to have increased behavioural, social and learning problems.
Mr Tunny, the lead author at consultancy Adept Economics, said one of the challenges planning for future growth was that some schools were simply more popular among parents than others.
“The state government is very conscious of this but one of the things identified is that some schools are overcapacity and some are under-utilised,” Mr Tunny said.
Mr Tunny suggested that schools could be more rigorous or firm with accepting out of catchment enrolments to spread the load more evenly.
“One of the challenges is, for whatever reason, parents want to send kids to more highly regarded schools,” Mr Tunny said.
“Being rigorous or firm on where parents can enrol will help. But there is also the potential to increase the capacity of existing schools too.
“Schools with large oval, it could be OK to lose some of it to increase capacity for a building to relieve pressure.”
A department spokesman said it monitors growth across the state and responds to ongoing enrolment demand to ensure the best educational outcomes for all students.
The spokesman said non-infrastructure solutions were also implemented to manage growth and that it provides ongoing support to schools to assist the department in managing assets and resources.
“This strategy also assists the department in avoiding enrolment spikes from out-of-catchment students, which results in the oversupply of infrastructure in some schools and under-utilisation of infrastructure in neighbouring schools,” the spokesman said.
“Once all non-infrastructure measures are exhausted, the department will take the decision to expand existing schools, and to establish new schools at the appropriate time and in the correct location to meet student demand.”
He said it was evident at Marsden SHS with recent upgrades increasing its built capacity to 4187, as of February this year. It currently has 3805 enrolments meaning its under capacity.
“The department is actively acquiring land in the Park Ridge-Logan Reserve growth corridor to deliver a secondary school to relieve Marsden,” the spokesman said.
“The planned relief secondary school was originally due to open in 2024 but has been delayed. It was not able to proceed on the originally acquired site due to changes to koala protection laws.”
A new secondary school is due to open in Collingwood Park in 2025 or 2026 whole department is determining the open year for a new high school at Park Ridge and a new Springfield campus.
Another new high school at Greater Flagstone is in the works.
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