Rent crisis: What you’ll be paying in 2024, according to new Suburbtrends modelling

Australia’s cost of living crisis is set to worsen with a new report predicting rent hikes across the country by early 2024. Explore data for every town and suburb in your state.

Mortgage-holders got a reprieve when the Reserve Bank held the official cash rate for the second consecutive month when it met this week.

But as Georgina Noack reports, whether or not the RBA raises rates again, economists say Australians will still be feeling the pain for months to come.

That pain will not only be felt by those struggling to make their monthly home loan repayments while juggling the swirling costs of other basic essentials, such as groceries and electricity.

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Renters, too face added financial pressures, with modelling by Suburbtrends predicting how much rents could rise across our major capitals, with tenants in some suburbs facing increases over $100 per week.

In one suburb on Sydney’s northern beaches, rents are forecast to increase by more than $300 a week.

In hundreds of other Aussie suburbs, rents are forecast to rise by less than $50 per week.

But with many families struggling to find the extra dollars to meet their cost-of-living obligations, even seemingly modest increases could be enough to put some renters under real stress.

But it’s not all bad news, with a new report by PropTrack revealing rental pressures in some cities, such as Brisbane, are showing signs of easing as more properties become available and demand eases.

In a new report, real estate analytics company SuburbTrends used predictive modelling to forecast what rents around the country could look like in 2024.

As Tom Bowden reported, the analysis considered a range of variables including past rental prices, property type, lease affordability and local economic and demographic indicators.

The analysis was also refined by removing areas with less than 20 per cent rental tenure or fewer than three listings to ensure the focus was on areas with a substantial rental market.

Here’s a look at the forecast for NSW, Qld, Vic and SA.

NEW SOUTH WALES

Rent for this Malabar home is up $350 per week from last year.

Rental prices in several Sydney suburbs are forecast to rise by over $100 per week, according to modelling by SuburbTrends.

As Aidan Devine reports, the forecast rises come after several record-breaking increases over the past year - fuelled by increasing migration and a decline in building activity.

The predicted increases have put the Sydney market on track for never-before-seen levels of rental unaffordability, which could push more tenants out of a home, Devine reports.

According to the modelling, house rents in Sydney are forecast to rise by an average of $45 a week, with unit rents expected to go up by $35.

The northern beaches suburb of Dee Why was forecast to see the biggest rental price increase in Australia, with the median price of a home increasing by $317 per week and $186 for a unit.

The forecast is based on the current supply of housing stock, local economic indicators and the pace of rent increases, among other factors.

Rental increases over $200 a week were also forecast for properties in Hurstville, Eastlakes, Malabar and La Perouse. House and unit rents were forecast to rise by more than $100 in 26 other regions.

Homelessness NSW CEO Trina Jones said the rental crisis was fuelling homelessness, with the organisation recording a 34 per cent increase in people sleeping rough over the past year.

“People are bedding down on streets, in tents and park benches because they don’t have a safe place to call home,” Ms Jones said.

“This should not be happening in one of the wealthiest places on Earth,” she said.

“The rising cost of living and a dire shortage of affordable rental homes is fuelling a homelessness crisis across NSW.”

Explore the 2024 rent forecast for every NSW town and suburb

QUEENSLAND

This three-bedroom house on Pine Ave, Surfers Paradise, is available to rent for $1250 a week.

People living on the Gold Coast and Brisbane’s inner suburbs are expected to cop the biggest rent increases in 2024, the SuburbTrends modelling reveals.

As Elizabeth Tilley reports, the biggest rent hikes for houses are forecast for Surfers Paradise, Broadbeach and Isle of Capri, with the median price expected to rise by $170 a week, to $1145.

The next biggest increases are forecast for Chevron Island, Main Beach, Southport and Paradise Waters, where median rents are predicted to increase by $108 a week to $908.

In Brisbane, the report predicts rents will increase by $19 per week for a house, and $24 for a unit, bringing the median weekly house price to $639 and the weekly unit price to $519.

Weekly rents are predicted to be pricier in inner city suburbs, with the cost of renting a house in New Farm set to rise by $60 and $53 a week in Fortitude Valley.

According to the report, rental prices for both houses and units in Kangaroo Point are tipped to rise by $54 a week. But it’s not all bad news.

A new PropTrack report reveals rental market pressures may be easing in Brisbane with more listings coming onto the market and demand for properties moderating.

As Elizabeth Tilley reported, new Brisbane rental listings on realestate.com.au increased by 8.3 per cent year on year in June - although vacancy rates remained tight at 1.1 per cent.

There was also better news in regional Queensland with the number of inquiries per listing falling by 36 per cent, giving potential tenants more choice.

Explore the 2024 rent forecast for every Queensland town and suburb

VICTORIA

The three-bedroom home on Coventry St, South Melbourne is up for rent for $795 a week, but forecasts hint tenants could be paying far more next year.

Melbourne rents are forecast to rise by an average of about $24 a week for houses and $25 for units by early 2024, the SuburbTrends modelling shows.

Renters in Port Melbourne, South Melbourne and Southbank are facing the biggest increases, with average rents forecast to increase by $165 from $880 to $1045, Sarah Petty reported.

Increases above $50 a week have also been predicted for some of the city’s more affordable suburbs, including Burnside Heights, where rents would rise by $54 to $512 per week.

SuburbTrends founder Kent Lardner said rents in Melbourne currently accounted for 27 per cent of household incomes, on average, but that was forecast to increase to 29 per cent in the next six months.

People paying above 30 per cent are considered to be in rental stress.

Tenants Victoria director of community engagement Farah Farouque told News Corp. Australia the outlook for renters in Victoria was worrying.

“The challenge they face has two key dimensions – affordability and availability of homes,” Ms Farouque said.

“It’s renters on low incomes and, increasingly, middle incomes who are feeling pressure right now.

Ms Farouque called on the government to introduce “practical measures” to ease the crisis, including a cap on rent increase and regulation of short-stay accommodation.

But Mr Lardner told News Corp rent caps came with significant risks.

“If not carefully implemented, these measures could potentially diminish the number of available rental properties, inadvertently drive gentrification, and create adverse effects on the local community.”

Explore the 2024 rent forecast for every Victorian town and suburb

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Rents are forecast to increase across SA in the next six months. Picture: NCA NewsWire/David Swift

South Aussie renters can expect an average rent hikes up to $41 a week in the next six months the SuburbTrends analysis found.

As Tom Bowden reported, the biggest increase was forecast for Rostrevor-Magill, where house rents are predicted to rise by $40.53 to a new median of $560.

The next highest rent increase was forecast for North Adelaide where rents would rise by $34.30 to $640 per week, followed by Edwardstown where an increase of $33.65 is predicted.

In Adelaide, house and unit rents are expected to rise by about $33 each per week.

Across metropolitan Adelaide, rents were forecast to increase by $19.30 per week to a median of $512.50 while rents for units were tipped to rise by $22.51 to a median of $400 a week.

SuburbTrends founder Kent Lardner said SA had always been an affordable place to live, but that was changing.

“The rental crisis is a problem that has been decades in the making,” Mr Lardner said.

“It’s going to take a concerted effort from all levels of government, as well as the private sector, to address it effectively.

“In the meantime, renters need to be aware of the potential risks and plan accordingly.”

But Turner Real Estate managing director Lachlan Turner said while rents would rise in some areas, they would remain steady in others.

“Our prediction is that they’re actually going to flatline and potentially decline slightly,” Mr Turner said. “The reason for that is because of interest rates and the cost of living.”

Explore the 2024 rent forecast for every South Australian town and suburb

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Originally published as Rent crisis: What you’ll be paying in 2024, according to new Suburbtrends modelling