Boom ‘burbs: 111 Qld suburbs where home prices are tipped to rise
Home prices are predicted to rise in 111 Queensland suburbs, while analysis reveals markets set for a downturn. SEARCH THE INTERACTIVE
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Home prices are predicted to rise in 111 Queensland suburbs, despite the housing market weakening to its lowest level since before the pandemic, according to a leading property analyst.
The latest Hotspotting Price Predictor Index has identified the next boom suburbs, with the majority in Brisbane’s inner ring suburbs such as Paddington and Milton, and regional centres, led by Townsville, Mackay, and Gladstone.
But the analysis reveals a downturn in many markets across the state, with the number of declining suburbs in Brisbane climbing to its highest level since mid-2019, and four out of five of the falling markets in regional Queensland situated on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.
Hotspotting director Terry Ryder said said the Brisbane market had returned to pre-pandemic levels, but still had more than 100 suburbs with rising or steady sales activity.
“Having started its decline with the major weather events early in 2022, the Brisbane market
is still patchy,” Mr Ryder said.
“Brisbane is another example of a market which began its slide well before interest rates started to rise in May 2022.”
The strongest market sector in Greater Brisbane is the inner Brisbane precinct, where there are six rising markets and eight consistent markets, led by Milton, Paddington, and Woolloongabba.
“This reflects a trend evident in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne where inner-city or near-city areas with affordable apartments are attracting increasing buyer demand,” Mr Ryder said.
“If a well-located suburb has apartments at half the price of houses, or less, then it’s
likely to have solid to strong demand from buyers.
“Rental demand is strong also, and the return of migrants and overseas students in
good numbers is likely to keep interest in these areas high in 2023.”
A number of new apartment projects are popping up in Milton due to demand, including a $165m, 174-apartment development called The Ambrose by Kokoda Property, which is 95 per cent sold.
Four penthouses in the building are about to hit the market ranging in price up to $7m.
Kokoda Property managing director Mark Stevens said demand far outweighed supply for new apartments within Milton and surrounding suburbs.
“Out of all the capital cities, Brisbane has the strongest fundamentals for growth over the coming years,” Mr Stevens said.
“This is driven by interstate migration and the fact that Brisbane has changed so much in the past five years. It is becoming more of a destination city for both owner-occupiers and
investors.”
According to the Hotspotting report, Brisbane has 41 suburbs with rising sales momentum and 60 suburbs classified as consistency markets, which means more than 40 per cent of suburbs across Greater Brisbane are classified as either rising or consistent.
According to PropTrack, home prices in Brisbane’s inner city region gained the most in the March quarter — up 0.66 per cent.
PropTrack senior analyst Karen Dellow said new listings remained lower compared to last year, which was keeping prices firm.
“If this series of interest rate rises comes to a halt, prices may begin to stabilise and buyers may start to adjust to the new rate environment,” Ms Dellow said.
“However, the full impact of rate rises pushed through to date is yet to be felt. The decline in prices may continue, particularly if new listing volumes increase in the coming months.”
However, she said the full impact of rate rises pushed through to date was yet to be felt.
Many of the declining markets in Brisbane are at the prestige end of the market, including Hamilton and neighbouring Clayfield, as well as Morningside and Norman Park, according to Hotspotting.
But there are also declining markets in some of the outer-ring precincts, notably the Moreton Bay region where Caboolture, Everton Hills and Ferny Hills are among the locations where sales activity is trending sharply downwards.
Logan City, which has been one of Australia’s standout markets, has dropped noticeably, as has Ipswich, which has had a remarkable run of strong sales activity since 2020 — particularly in the suburbs of Goodna and Ipswich City.
In Ipswich, only three of the 19 suburbs are rising and three are consistent markets.
Now, seven of the Logan City suburbs remain rising markets and seven others are consistent markets, while 14 are now plateau markets and three are declining.
Logan City suburbs which have resisted the downward trend include Greenbank, Regents Park and Slacks Creek.
“This new survey shows that the markets which had been most resistant to downturn pressures, the affordable outer-ring areas, have weakened as well,” Mr Ryder said.
“Clearly, the Queensland market has deteriorated overall, but there are many different stories behind the figures.”
Colliers is marketing a new house and land development in Burpengary, north of Brisbane, where the house and unit markets are plateauing, according to Hotspotting.
But Colliers director of residential Queensland Jon Rivera said 95 per cent of the project, called ‘Vale’, had sold out in less than a month of launching, with most sales to investors and second home buyers.
With a price point in the $600,000s, Mr Rivera said the affordability of the house and land packages was a huge drawcard.
“If it starts with a five or six, you’ll move it no problem,” Mr Rivera said. “As soon as you go above $750,000, you start to run into challenges.”
“It’s all about price point at the moment.”
Mr Ryder said regional Queensland was very much a two-speed market, with some locations having passed their peaks and others still growing.
The report found regional Queensland has 70 rising markets — the lowest number since early 2020, with Townsville the strongest market in the state.
Of the 26 suburbs analysed in Townsville, 15 are rising and seven are consistent, with only four ranked as plateau markets.
“The unofficial capital of North Queensland benefits from a sturdy, diverse local economy, which underpins a real estate market boosted by the city’s attractive affordability, lifestyle and ability to generate employment,” Mr Ryder said.
Central Queensland also has a number of solid markets, including Mackay, Gladstone and Rockhampton.
And Toowoomba continues to defy the downturn pressures, with 16 rising or consistent markets.
Regional Queensland now has 53 locations classified as declining markets by Hotspotting, with 38 of those in the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast regions.
On the Gold Coast, there are only two rising markets and 18 ranked as declining.
“This indicates the wind-down of the Gold Coast boom began in the second half of 2021, well before the interest rate rises, with the most expensive suburbs the ones most likely to be in decline,” Mr Ryder said.
“Similarly, the Sunshine Coast up-cycle pre-dated the national boom of 2020-2021, reached its peak in the second half of 2021 and has been winding down since then.”
Now, only five of the 53 locations in the Sunshine Coast and Noosa local government areas combined are rising markets and 18 suburbs are declining.
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