Deery: Collapse of Labor vote in Werribee lands Jacinta Allan in deep, deep trouble
Labor voters are calling time and desperately looking for an alternative. But it appears they just aren’t sold on the Liberals — yet.
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Voters are turning off Labor and are desperately looking for an alternative.
They just aren’t sold on the Liberals, yet.
In smashing Labor’s primary vote in the Werribbee by-election on Saturday, the electorate sent a strong message to Jacinta Allan: be better.
Allan is in deep, deep trouble.
The collapse of Labor’s vote will heap pressure on her leadership at both a federal and state level.
At the same time Brad Battin’s electoral challenge was reinforced through the refusal of voters to get enthusiastically behind his Liberals.
He might have been on track to win Werribee _ a monumental feat _ but failure to capitalise on the protest votes leaving Labor still have some Liberals nervous.
Still, after dominating Victoria’s political landscape for more than a decade its clear voters are calling time on Labor.
With a shopping list of problems it appears to have few answers for, the electorate is signalling it has had enough.
Ask Labor insiders what’s going wrong and they reel off problem after problem.
Policy issues, a wobbly communications strategy, and an inability to differentiate and renew from Daniel Andrews almost 18 months after he walked away from politics.
There is also a general unwillingness to accept that Labor has a problem in the outer suburbs, especially in the west.
That’s evident through Allan’s diehard commitment to the Suburban Rail Loop.
It’s not about whether the SRL is a good idea _ it’s about the fact that it has made it nearly impossible to maintain, let alone improve, quality of life in other areas — like healthcare.
The Big Build projects might look impressive, but not when they come at the expense of everything else.
And that’s exactly the choice the Allan government is making when it prioritises its big flashy infrastructure pipeline while letting basic services deteriorate.
Crime is up, an energy crisis looms and the government has failed to deliver anything meaningful on its signature commitment, housing.
Power prices remain high, despite claims around the revival of the SEC, and Labor insiders say a superiority complex has set in among some ministers.
“Some around the cabinet table thinking they know better than the local MPs and voters,” one senior Labor figure said.
On a personal level, Allan is facing continued criticism that she has failed to define herself and appeal to the electorate.
Recent preferred premier polls show the same.
Allan is in deep trouble.
And she has an un-match fit team _ spoiled by years of not being politically challenged by the Opposition _ to help her out of it.
At the same time there are lessons for Battin and his Liberals.
He needs to steal 17 seats from Labor at next year’s general election if he wants to be Premier.
Few expected him to achieve the 10.9 per cent swing needed to win the Labor heartland seat of Werribee, so win, lose or draw this is not a game changer.
But failure to capitalise on voters fleeing Labor is a problem that must be reckoned with.
The expected double digit swing against Labor resulted in a single digit swing for the Liberal Party, exposing a generational divide Battin must correct.
Because if he can’t convert votes, he won’t get to government.
Questions must also be asked about whether or not the Liberals’ campaign machine is broken.
If the party stands a chance of winning across the west of Melbourne the preselection of top candidates is vital, as is consultation with locals.
In Battin’s favour is the fact he is new and still an unknown quantity.
There were lessons to be learned in Saturday’s by-elections, even if there were no obvious winners.
Originally published as Deery: Collapse of Labor vote in Werribee lands Jacinta Allan in deep, deep trouble
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