Voters turn on Labor in the west but results too close to call

The Allan government has been dealt a major blow with Labor copping a massive swing in its traditional heartland, but the Werribee by-election result remained on a knife-edge Saturday night.

The Allan government has been dealt a major blow with Labor copping a massive swing in its traditional heartland of Melbourne’s west.

But the ALP was on Saturday night holding out hope it could still retain Werribee, despite a 9.6 per cent swing againt Labor.

At 10.30 on Saturday night, Labor candidate John Lister was slightly ahead of the Liberals’ Steve Murphy with a third of votes counted.

Labor had lost a massive 15 per cent from its primary vote but the Liberal Party improved its primary vote by just 5 per cent as voters turned to minor parties and independents.

While the race for Werribee was too close to call last night, in Prahran the Liberals were expecting to get over the line and steal the seat from the Greens.

With a third of votes counted, Labor candidate John Lister is slightly ahead of the Liberals’ Steve Murphy. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

With almost 65 per cent of votes counted in Prahran, Liberal candidate Rachel Westaway was leading the Greens Angelica Di Camillo 51.6 per cent to 48.4 per cent on a two party preferred basis.

Premier Jacinta Allan addressed Labor faithful shortly after 10pm in Werribee saying the result would not be clear for some time.

“It is still a tight night,” she said. “It is going down to the wire. By-elections are a tough ask ... they are also an opportunity for communities to tell us how they’re feeling.

“The people of Werribee want to make sure their voice is being heard. “I am listening. My government is listening.”

Jacinta Allan addresses the Labor faithful in Werribee. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Early in the night senior Liberals were buoyed by a rush of votes that saw massive swings for the party but tapered off as counting continued.

The ALP had expected to be punished over issues including cost of living, crime and lack of infrastructure in the west. But party figures said the collapse of Labor’s vote had been more bruising than expected.

Liberal candidate Rachel Westaway was leading the Greens Angelica Di Camillo 51.6 per cent to 48.4 per cent on a two party preferred basis. Picture: Josie Hayden

Labor threw hundreds of thousands of dollars at the campaign to retain the western suburbs seat, held for a decade by former treasurer Tim Pallas, amid grave concerns about a backlash by disaffected voters.

Chief among their concerns were surging crime statistics, a lack of infrastructure investment in the west and soaring cost of living pressures.

Labor insiders also blamed the Premier’s immovable commitment to the Suburban Rail Loop for the drop in support in the west.

“SRL is poison in the west, with no alternative for those voters to get behind,” one senior Labor figure said.

Pollster and former Labor strategist, Kos Samaras, said the Werribee result was a wake up call for the parties.

“Labor’s primary vote in Werribee has clearly collapsed, but the bulk of it has shifted to minor parties,” he said. “This continues the trend from 2022, where the once-solid “Red Wall” is crumbling, yet the Liberal Party remains unable to capitalise on the shift. Preferences may still get them there.”

Greens candidate, Angelica Di Camillo at a booth at Grattan Gardens Community centre for the Prahran by-election. Picture: David Crosling

The Liberals have not won a seat from Labor at a by-election since 1948.

The 9.6 per cent two party preferred swing against Labor last night in Werribee was similar to the by-election result in Mulgrave following the resignation of Daniel Andrews in 2023, the 2010 Altona by-election and 2008 Kororoit by-election.

The Liberal Party needs a statewide swing of about 8 per cent in order to win the 17 seats it needs to form government at the next election.

“It’s now unmistakably clear that the demographic wall we’ve been discussing in Victoria is far more formidable than the Liberal Party had realised,” Mr Samaras said.

“Despite a massive swing against Labor in Werribee, the Liberals have once again failed to persuade an increasingly disillusioned electorate to back them. It’s clear that voters, as old as Gen X, are now opting for minor parties. They are no longer convinced the other side is the solution.”

Brad Battin visited both Prahran and Werribee in a long day of campaigning, tempering expectations on the party and his leadership. Picture: Ian Currie

Brad Battin visited both Prahran and Werribee in a long day of campaigning, tempering expectations on the party and his leadership.

“The change of seats during a by-election is always difficult,” he said.

“The last time we had a change to us from the Labor Party was 1948, to put it into perspective.

“We’re going to say: Jacinta Allan, we ask you to watch this election closely and make sure that at the end of the day we have one goal and one focus.

“What can we do to improve the lives of Victorians – not just when there’s a by-election on but for all Victorians all the time,” he said.

Federal MPs across both major parties were closely monitoring results as they prepare for their own federal election.

ABC election analyst, Antony Green, told ABC News the results could foreshadow expected trends at a federal level.

Labor sources said federal pressure would mount on Victorian Labor as a result of the swings it suffered.

Originally published as Voters turn on Labor in the west but results too close to call