‘Increasingly nervous’: Disaffected voters could see ALP lose seat of Werribee for first time since 1979
Thousands of voters have streamed into polling booths in Melbourne’s inner-east and west as the fight for the seat of Prahran fires up and the Allan government braces for the Werribee by-election.
Victoria
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The Allan government is bracing for a massive swing in Saturday’s Werribee by-election, with fears the ALP could lose the seat for the first time since 1979.
Labor has thrown hundreds of thousands of dollars at a campaign to retain the western suburbs seat, which it holds with a 10.9 per cent margin, but there are grave concerns about a backlash by disaffected voters who say they have been neglected by the government.
Crime and transport infrastructure have emerged as major issues for locals who say the heartland seat has been ignored for too long while the government throws billions of dollars to shore up support in more marginal seats across Melbourne, including along the southeast growth corridor.
Werribee voters turn out for critical by-election
A steady stream of voters trickled through the gates of the voting centre at Imaroo Primary School, located in Werribee’s west, on Saturday.
Premier Jacinta Allan was on site early and said she was confident Labor would maintain its stranglehold on the electorate, thanks to the strength of its candidate.
“We have a great Labor team,” she said. “Unlike the divided Liberal Party, who are all about themselves ...
“Victorians know when you have a divided Liberal Party you have a party that doesn’t trust each other, which means Victorians can’t trust them either.
“What we have here in Werribee in John Lister is a strong local Labor candidate, not like the Liberal Party, (John) is a CFA volunteer and former teacher.”
Opposition Leader Brad Battin arrived later to support Liberal candidate Steve Murphy and greeted voters as they entered the polling booths.
“We are out here to send a pretty strong message to the Labor government,” he said.
“We have been out and about listening to the people and we’re hoping there is a message of change coming.
“We are missing the voice in the west and we want to make sure we are that voice going forward.”
One of the Labor Party’s tactics heading into the Werribee by-election was to take aim at the fact Liberal candidates don’t even live in the area, but Mr Murphy said it was a non-issue.
“Tim Pallas and many other major Labor MPs don’t live in their seats,” he said.
“I’ve lived, worked and raised my kids in Werribee. I shifted (to Essendon) during Covid to be within a 5km radius of my kids.
“I wanted to be near my children, so I could see my children. I am a good family man.”
As for the pollsters themselves, both parties seemed to be picking up their share of votes, with many stating they planned to stay loyal to their usual parties.
“I voted Labor, just because I always vote Labor,” Lily said.
Meanwhile, couple Susan and Graham said they voted “Liberal every election” and that “hadn’t changed” today.
One person exiting the polls even admitted he “donkey voted” in support of his usual party.
“To be honest I didn’t even look,” he said. “I just scribbled on the bit of paper and dropped it in the box.
“I never vote.”
Independents were also garnering some support, with the Pat losing confidence in the “big parties”.
“I actually voted for one of the independents,” he said. “I am a bit over the big parties, they aren’t doing a great job.”
Battle for Prahran heats up
Meanwhile, the battle for the highly prized seat of Prahran was heating up early on Saturday afternoon.
The inner-city seat, which has been held by the Greens since 2014, became vacant following the resignation of disgraced MP Sam Hibbins.
Thousands of voters streamed into polling booths across Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor on Saturday morning, with the Liberals a real chance to snatch the seat after Labor chose not to run a candidate.
The Greens have pledged to push for 50 cent public transport fares and cheaper groceries by capping the prices of essentials, but Liberal candidate Rachel Westaway said her party was the only one with the “ability to make a difference”.
“We can absolutely succeed,” she said.
“Ten years of the Greens have been atrocious. We’ve been neglected and we can feel it.”
“I know that (voters) will understand that (the Greens) cannot deliver what they are offering people. It’s like giving away free lollipops for votes.”
But Greens candidate Angelica Di Camillo, 26, said she believed the minor party could trigger real change.
“In the upper house, the Greens hold the shared balance of power, so we really have influence to work with the government to push them to go harder and faster on the issues that our community really cares about,” she said.
“We’ve knocked on almost 14,000 doors in Prahran ... and people have told us they want action on housing affordability, climate change and especially cost of living.”
Ms Di Camillo, an environmental engineer, hit the hustings with federal Greens leader Adam Bandt, while state Liberal MPs, including shadow treasurer James Newbury, were spotted handing out how-to-vote cards for Ms Westaway.
The businesswoman, who has focused her campaign on cracking down on crime in the area, could flip the seat after swapping preferences with ex-Labor MP turned independent Tony Lupton.
Opposition Leader Brad Battin, speaking alongside Ms Westaway, said he had a message to send to the Premier.
“We’re going to say: Jacinta Allan, we ask you to watch this election closely and make sure that at the end of the day we have one goal and one focus. What can we do to improve the lives of Victorians – not just when there’s a by-election on but for all Victorians all the time?” he said.
The tight contest for the seat has also involved right-wing lobby group Advance, which is alleged to have put up posters at early voting booths in breach of campaign rules.
When asked about the behaviour of volunteers, Ms Di Camillo said she had seen “dirty politics” on the campaign trail.
“But honestly it doesn’t work, I’ve had so many voters come up to me and tell me they’re going to support me because of it,” she replied.
But it is understood Advance disputes claims of negative tactics, alleging “appalling behaviour” from the Greens’ volunteers.
‘Increasingly nervous’: Labor insiders’ fears for result
Jacinta Allan was conspicuously absent from campaigning in the electorate of Werribee on Friday, sparking suggestions her brand was unhelpful to getting popular local ALP candidate John Lister over the line.
“Absolutely shitting ourselves,” one party figure said on Friday evening when describing the mood.
One insider said they felt “increasingly nervous”, while another predicted the government would hold on but “only by the skin of our teeth”.
Saturday’s by-election was sparked by the resignation of long-serving MP and Treasurer Tim Pallas, who comfortably retained the seat at the 2022 election.
But cash-strapped voters and a general sense of neglect has the party faithful worried that such a result won’t be replicated this time around.
“If we don’t cop a swing against us, Jacinta should call an election tomorrow,” one MP joked.
Mr Lister is a long-time Werribee local, a teacher and CFA volunteer who is well-liked in the community, while the Liberals’ candidate choice, 63-year-old Steve Murphy, has raised eyebrows.
Mr Murphy, a real estate agent who used to live in the electorate but now lives in Essendon, has run a campaign highlighting the pinch points of crime, infrastructure and cost of living.
Labor is banking on Mr Lister’s local charm will be enough to get him over the line, with doorknockers saying he’s received a positive reception.
“The Libs, thankfully for us, chose a substandard candidate,” one source said.
A loss for Labor – while not impacting their ability to govern – will inevitably spell trouble for Jacinta Allan and her authority, which has already been bruised by terrible polling.
Sources said she wouldn’t immediately be forced to consider stepping down, but internal chatter and conversations about her ability to win the 2026 election will be almost guaranteed.
The Herald Sun has been told that at last week’s Labor caucus conference – which featured a “rev up” from Queensland Labor Party – Ms Allan delivered a speech to her MPs where she said she was relying on them to get behind her.
On Friday, several MPs said they didn’t want to think about the prospect of a leadership change. And senior minister Gabrielle Williams, who recently enjoyed a big promotion in the cabinet reshuffle, also sought to shut down any talk that Ms Allan’s future could be on the line.
Ms Allan on Friday said: “I am focused on Victorians and I will continue to work incredibly hard”.
Back in Werribee on Friday, some rusted-on Labor supporters said they would stick with the government while others decided it was time for change.
New parents and longtime locals Matt and Lauren were among multiple residents who said they were voting Liberal for the first time, prompted by youth crime fears, crumbling roads and a feeling that the area had been “left behind”.
“We feel like we’ve been taken for granted,” Matt said.
“This area, it’s always been Labor and we feel like the infrastructure has been left behind, and roads have been not built that they’ve promised.”
Mark Mousley, 62, said he would normally vote Labor but “chaotic” local roads and a sense that the party had gone “woke” had driven him to switch sides.
“Tim Pallas is a dirty word in Werribee, trying to get the toxic soil put here” he said, referring to a 2020 proposal to dump the West Gate Tunnel’s toxic soil in Wyndham.
Originally published as ‘Increasingly nervous’: Disaffected voters could see ALP lose seat of Werribee for first time since 1979
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