Federal election 2025: Five key ways Donald Trump has changed the May 3 campaign

Peter Dutton was in Adelaide last week to make his pitch for PM, but all eyes were on another conservative leader, writes Paul Starick.

Donald Trump is setting the agenda and dominating public attention during a lacklustre election campaign that has been overwhelmed by economic turmoil triggered by the US President.

The relative powerlessness of Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton, in the face of whipsawing stock markets and tectonic geopolitical upheaval, has been dramatically exposed.

In the aftermath of Mr Trump’s stunning Presidential comeback last November, there was a thirst in some significant quarters for his cost-cutting and plain-speaking agenda to be replicated in Australia.

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The Albanese government was in deep trouble, unable to dodge blame for an unprecedented cost-of-living crisis.

But mainstream Australia turned on Mr Trump after his febrile bullying of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in late February.

At the same time, global stockmarkets had started a decline in response to his tariff regime, which triggered bourses to plunge and roar back in the past week.

Closer to home, there are five key impacts on the May 3 election campaign.

Cost-of-living blame game

Ahead of last Christmas, voters were waiting with baseball bats to pound the Albanese government over household and business financial struggles.

Five months later, Trump’s economic turmoil has made him the whipping boy for Australia’s economic pain and bolstered Labor’s platform of delivering government handouts for living cost relief.

Turbulent times tend to favour incumbents as voters seek a safe harbour, which has boosted Labor’s opinion poll ratings.

Liberal leader Peter Dutton in Adelaide on Monday with Boothby candidate Nicolle Flint.Picture Thomas Lisson / NewsWire

Adelaide marginals

Peter Dutton pitched his case on Monday to voters in Adelaide knife-edge seats of Boothby and Sturt, vowing to drastically cut truck numbers on Cross and Portrush roads.

But his message was diluted by the billions being wiped off global markets. Both marginal seats have affluent suburbs with older residents, who would have been watching their superannuation balances plummet.

Boothby Liberal candidate Nicolle Flint, a conservative with a decent chance of winning back the seat, is now clearly behind Labor rival Louise Miller-Frost in betting markets.

Ms Flint’s chances might improve if Trump turmoil settles – but that’s no safe bet. Liberal Sturt MP James Stevens, a moderate, remains a clear favourite to hold the seat.

Work from home cemented

The backflip by Peter Dutton on forcing Canberra public servants back to the office means work-from-home is here to stay.

Voters have spoken. Unpopularity with female voters, many of whom want flexible working arrangements, killed off the Coalition policy and had Mr Dutton begging for forgiveness.

Negative gearing reforms have been off the table since Bill Shorten’s 2019 campaign was buried by a backlash over Labor’s proposals. No politician will touch work-from-home for some time, wary of another firestorm.

AUKUS

Trump’s 10 per cent tariff on Australian imports to the US has triggered further unease about the security pact, particularly the $368bn nuclear-powered submarine project centred on Adelaide. Calls to use AUKUS as a bargaining chip have sown further doubt about the project’s viability, including the transfer to Australia of desperately needed Virginia class submarines.

Premier Peter Malinauskas takes photos on his phone during an April 10 media call ahead of the first AFL game at Barossa Park for Gather Round. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Mali’s box seat

The golden run of Premier Peter Malinauskas continues. He has basked in the feel-good Gather Round spotlight and his Liberal rivals cannot get clear air.

Interest rate cuts triggered by global economic shockwaves seem certain before next March’s state election, giving homeowners some reprieve and insulating him somewhat from the cost-of-living crisis.

Unemployment remains historically low but a global recession would present challenges, particularly if the state economy sours and a housing supply crisis does not ease.

Originally published as Federal election 2025: Five key ways Donald Trump has changed the May 3 campaign