‘Severely deficient rainfall’: BOM moves to El Nino alert, Qld heading for dry season

With the Bureau of Meteorology officially declaring a move to an El Nino alert, Queenslanders can expect a flip of the conditions experienced over the past few years. Here’s what it means.

The Bureau of Meteorology have officially moved from El Nino watch to an El Nino alert with Queensland set for a “severely deficient” rainfall season, hot days and freezing nights in erratic weather predictions.

Senior climatologist Felicity Gamble said the recent BOM alert means there is now a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino developing this year.

“The chances of an event occurring has increased and that is because of the Pacific Ocean pattern which drives El Nino,” Ms Gamble said.

“This is not just in Australia, but also international models are strengthening their watch. We haven’t declared El Nino because it is not reflected in the atmosphere as of yet; until we can see that we can be sure it will be a sustained event.”

On the cards for Queensland is drier than average conditions and low average rainfall, typical for an El Nino season.

“Across the state the chance of exceeding median rainfall is around 20 to 30 per cent, this is everywhere except very Far North Queensland who are entering their dry season.

“What we will be looking at is in Southeast Queensland is serious and even severe deficiencies in rainfall.

“It is looking to be very dry so we are keeping an eye on that.”

At this early stage, BOM are predicting very dry conditions from June to August, however Ms Gamble also forecasts a hot and dry summer as well.

“Regarding summer in Queensland, during an El Nino we would expect very clear skies and reduced rainfall.

“So above average maximum day temperatures but cool nights due to that loss of heat.

“This May was the second driest rainfall year on record in the southeast but also one of the coldest due to those low overnight temps.

So hot days and cooler nights are expected.”

Ms Gamble also explained that much of Australia, including the Western seaboard, would also be going through a suspected extended dry period.

“Over in the west, there is the Indian Ocean Driver which is very similar to ENSO in the Pacific, and that is looking to head into a positive phase which will see very dry conditions as well,” she said.