Qld weather: Blackout risk rises as El Nino threat adds to generator delays

Queensland is facing rolling blackouts and skyrocketing power prices and there is nothing anyone can do now to stop it now.

• The issues: Qld like you’ve never seen it before

The expected El Nino will raise the risk of blackouts this summer, as the grid will be left without two major generators due to delays in recommissioning.

An impact on retail power bills is almost certain due to Callide power station’s C3 and C4 generators remaining offline until next year – either through an increase or prices not coming down as much – according to Grattan Institute energy director Tony Wood.

While he said blackouts as a result of the delay were unlikely, a range of factors could increase the risk including a hotter than usual summer leading to more people using airconditioning, putting more pressure on the system.

Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

The Bureau of Meteorology earlier this month warned there was “double the usual chance” of an El Nino weather pattern occurring, which increases the risk of hotter, dryer weather.

Mr Wood said the C3 and C4 units were about 10 per cent of Queensland’s coal-fired power generation capacity.

“At the moment you have enough supply, the buffer is fine, but we’re getting closer to the safety rails than you’d like,” he said.

“The reliability issue … is more likely to be in the peak time in summer when capacity could be stretched if we have an intense summer. The predictions of El Nino might play that out.

“It’s when you get extended periods of high (wholesale) prices, like we had this time last year that eventually that cost of doing that is passed on.”

He said reliability issues and blackouts were likely to be avoided unless there was a “combination of nasty circumstances” like in June 2022, which included record high gas prices and several coal generator failures.

Mr Wood warned one of the buffer’s in place last year, the Liddell Power Station in NSW, had since shut down.

Grattan Institute energy and climate change director Tony Wood. Picture: Supplied

“It’s like we’re getting close to the edge and the safety rail isn’t as firm as it was,” he said.

“It’s why you’d say there’s probably going to be a price impact.

“There’s no doubt it’s negative. It’s just a question of how negative it might be.”

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is modelling what impact the delay on recommissioning will have on power reliability ahead of summer.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s spokeswoman said the government was working with the states and AEMO to get more capacity online before summer.