Qld to swelter through unbearable heat as El Nino takes grip

Dozens of bushfires are alight across Queensland, as the weather bureau warns of a summer of extreme heat and fire.

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The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared an El Nino weather pattern expected to bring extreme heatwave conditions to Queensland this summer, as dozens of bushfires burn across the state.

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The South East will likely swelter through unbearable temperatures, with both an El Nino event underway in the Pacific Ocean and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event in western oceans.

The two major climate drivers are forecast to create hot, dry conditions and elevated fire danger, meaning temperatures could remain well above average through March.

It comes after Queensland experienced its hottest winter on record, with the last declared El Nino leading to Australia’s hottest year on record in 2016.

The Bureau’s Dr Karl Braganza said it was time to prepare for a summer of “heat and fire”.

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared both and El Nino and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events expected to bring extremely hot temperatures to Queensland this summer.

“While we are different leading into black summer from 2019 when we had years of preceding drought … (landscape) is drying out more rapidly than has occurred in recent years and we are now seeing elevated risk,” he said.

“Unfortunately we’ll probably see a continuation of the global heat up until the middle of 2024.”

Meanwhile, dozens of fires continue to burn across the state near Townsville, Miriam Vale, Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay, Somerset, Duingal, Gatton, and across the Darling Downs.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services Commissioner Greg Leach on Tuesday said none were cause for concern and firefighters were working hard to contain the Beerwah blaze ahead of predicted worsening weather conditions on Thursday.

Despite this, there are no current plans to issue a total fire ban as seen in New South Wales unless particular weather conditions called for one, the Commissioner said.

“We make those decisions around what the conditions look like, it will depend really on what the ultimate weather conditions are on Thursday,” he said.

“We know that we’ve got difficult conditions coming up later in the week, particularly Thursday, and so we want to make sure that we have that (Beerwah) fire well and truly contained prior.”

There is so far no indication of what caused the fires and they have not yet been deemed suspicious.

Responding to allegations that not enough hazard reduction burning had been completed this year, Commissioner Leach said burns had been strategic, but due to climate change, reducing Queensland’s high fuel loads would continue to challenge the service.

“That’s why we need to continue to grow our capacity and our capability not only of the Rural Fire Service, but all landowners who have responsibility need to think about how they’re going to manage their risk into the future,” he said.

“One significant landowner of course is the state government and Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service.

“They have a very solid hazard mitigation plan that will be implemented each year and we work very closely with them.”

QFES Commissioner Greg Leach press conference at Queensland Emergency Services Complex, Kedron, Tuesday, September 19, 2023 – Picture: Richard Walker

Fire and Emergency Services Minister Mark Ryan defended comments made by volunteer firefighters about the government not doing enough to maintain its land, declaring 5 per cent of state-owned parks and wildlife had been burned.

“Parks and Wildlife have stepped up their game,” he said.

But Commissioner Leach cautioned drivers from pulling over on the side of the road next to high fuel loads.

“There is vegetation up to the edge of roads and so, even for motorists to pull off the road, for mechanical repairs or checking on vehicle conditions, you’ve got to be careful where you pull off.”

An NRMA Insurance survey recently found that only a quarter of Queenslanders are prepared for bushfires.

NRMA Insurance meteorologist Dr Bruce Buckley said Queenslanders should be prepared for all types of weather extremes this spring, after only 37 per cent of residents raised concerns about the arrival of bushfires.

“This is below the national average where 49 per cent of people are concerned about the risk of bushfire,” he said.

“The most worrying aspect of this is that only about 26 per cent of people have actually taken any activities for bushfires.”

Fire and Emergency Services Minister Mark Ryan speaks about the latest bushfire seasonal outlook for Queensland at the Convention Center in South Brisbane. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

The Bureau is currently forecasting severe winds and elevated fire danger across the South East this week, followed by a cold front.

Brisbane is expected to reach 29C about the CBD by Wednesday afternoon with maximums reaching the low 30s in the western suburbs.

On Thursday temperatures will skyrocket to close to 40C in some areas of the South East, paired with extreme fire danger ratings about the state.

Meteorologist Kimba Wong said the northerly winds on Thursday would create temperatures 10 degrees above average for the South East.

“Across the southern inland and southwest today (Wednesday) maximums are expected well above average, and in the South East quarter, with 29C forecast, about 3.5 degrees above average,” she said.

“Now tomorrow (Thursday), we’re expecting 35C for Brisbane and 37C for Ipswich, which is more what we expect in Northern Queensland … with Ipswich that little bit further inland away from any sea breeze makes it hotter and drier.”

As the northwesterly winds drag a warm, continental air mass across interior and South East Queensland the fire danger rating will reach high about Maranoa, Warrego and the Channel Country on Wednesday.

It will hit high for much of the state on Thursday, including the South East while the Channel Country faces extreme fire danger into Friday.

“Any winds coming from the North will be hot and north-westerly winds will be warm and dry resulting in high fire danger inland today which tomorrow will spread across the South East quarter,” Ms Wong said.

“And it will be extreme in the Channel Country.”

She added that fire suppression will be challenging with a few already burning around the patch and stressed the importance of bushfire preparedness.

Commissioner Leach said he was confident with the number of RFSQ volunteers available this year, but admitted the service needed to work harder to maintain and attract more members.

“People say we potentially lost some very experienced members and that’s true,” he said.

“We really encourage local brigades to recruit and attract local people, because the Rural Fire Service is a locally based service at the end of the day, supported by the state organisation.”

When asked whether providing the RFSQ legislative autonomy and its own budget would assist capacity building, Commissioner Leach said, “I think it’ll go a long way”.