Queensland Election results 2017: Bewildered LNP has lost its identity

IT’S a surprise that the LNP is struggling far more than an opposition should be at this point of the electoral cycle, but the faltering campaign of One Nation is nothing short of a shock.

One Nation leader Senator Pauline Hanson lost her state party leader, Steve Dickson, and former federal senator Malcolm Roberts. Picture: AAP Image/Mick Tsikas

WHAT began four weeks ago amid a fog of uncertainty for Labor looked like, at least at just after 8pm on Saturday night, a pretty solid win for the Palaszczuk Government.

AS IT HAPPENED: Election results and rolling coverage

A Galaxy exit poll taken just before 6pm indicated a convincing haul of 51 seats for Labor on the back of a one per cent swing to the Palaszczuk Government across the state, and a three per cent swing in the south-east.

That divide between Brisbane and the bush is hardly surprising. So much of the campaign – infrastructure, jobs and Adani – were themselves narratives that broke along geographic lines.

But an LNP struggling far more than an opposition should be at this point of the electoral cycle is a surprise, and a faltering One Nation – now lucky to pick up a couple of seats at best – is nothing short of a shock.

It’s on the strength of those figures that, at just after 7.30pm last night, former Labor Lord Mayor Jim Soorley, commentating on Channel Seven, called the election result for Labor.

Even a week ago that would have been unthinkable. But, far sooner than anyone anticipated, election computers were giving 49 seats to Labor (a majority of two, and five more than 2015), 39 to the LNP (down three from 2015), one Green, two for Katter’s Australian Party, one Independent (and possibly two) and – shock of the night – maybe just a single seat for One Nation.

As party insiders warned during the last week when Labor began to rally (after a mediocre start and LNP-One Nation blunders), be prepared for some shock results.

The LNP will be doing some very deep soul searching after this election, especially given that even the usually safe Gold Coast also swung to Labor. But it’s in the central, northern and outer Brisbane regions where the LNP will need to a hard look at itself. With swings of between 10 and 13 per cent against the LNP outside Brisbane, the party that purports to represent both business and farmers is now struggling for identity.

That brings us back to One Nation – that other supposed voice for agrarian Queensland. With leader Steve Dickson defeated in Buderim, and the party’s back up leaders Jim Savage in Lockyer and Sam Cox in Thuwingowa also gone, who will carry the flag for One Nation going forward?

When the dust settles there’s little doubt as to where the blame will fall for a failed LNP campaign despite a disciplined performance by Tim Nicholls – major parties that play footsie with wacky fringe parties lose their credibility.

At least one lesson has been learned: there’ll be no federal Coalition deal with One Nation at the next federal poll.