Queensland election 2017: Galaxy poll upsets in critical seats
LABOR could be knocked out in its heartland electorate of Logan in a devastating outcome for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s re-election prospects. It’s among seven seats where upsets are on the cards.
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THEY are the seats that will decide the Queensland election on November 25.
Who are the MPs under threat? What impact will Pauline Hanson’s One Nation really have?
The Courier-Mail Galaxy poll results will shock you.
We’ve polled seven of the state’s most crucial seats to get an insight into who will become Queensland’s next premier: Annastacia Palaszczuk or Tim Nicholls.
Logan
A FORMER kickboxing champion could knockout Labor from its heartland electorate of Logan in a devastating outcome for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s re-election prospects.
Labor’s Linus Power has his nose just in front, according to an exclusive Courier Mail Galaxy Poll, but could be overtaken if Pauline Hanson’s party continues its surge in support.
A catastrophic collapse in the LNP’s support in Logan may also have ramifications for the Tim Nicholls-led team in surrounding seats, particularly Scenic Rim.
Logan’s boundary was expanded south during the recent redistribution with the electorate now including areas around Jimboomba and Cedar Creek.
According to Galaxy, Labor’s vote has fallen from 45.1 per cent to 35 per cent while the LNP slumped from 37.6 per cent to 20 per cent.
One Nation’s Scott Bannan, a former world kickboxing champion and Hells Angel bikie, is on a staggering 33 per cent of the primary vote.
On a two-party preferred basis, Mr Power leads Mr Bannan 52 per cent to 48 per cent with LNP supporters predominantly choosing One Nation over Labor.
The LNP won Logan in 2012 but lost in 2015 with the party’s former MP, Michael Pucci, joining One Nation and contesting the new seat of Jordan, near Ipswich.
Rockhampton
ROCKHAMPTON Mayor Margaret Strelow’s intervention in the race for the local state seat has helped cause a collapse in Labor’s support.
Ms Strelow was Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s “captain’s pick” for Labor preselection after incumbent Bill Byrne announced he would retire due to ill health.
However, local Labor members thumbed their nose and picked Barry O’Rourke, prompting Ms Strelow to suspend her mayoral duties to contest Rockhampton as an independent.
A Courier Mail Galaxy Poll found Labor’s primary vote in the party’s sixth safest seat sunk from 52.9 per cent to 33 per cent, an extraordinary fall.
The LNP declined from 30.3 per cent to 23 per cent.
One Nation’s freshly-minted candidate Wade Rothery scored 21 per cent of the primary vote while Ms Strelow has a lowly 14 per cent despite her high profile.
According to Galaxy, Labor will win the seat ahead of the LNP 58 per cent to 42 per cent if the party received strong preference flows from Ms Strelow.
However, the result would be a six per cent swing against the Government in a seat Labor managed to hang onto even during the whitewash of 2012 when it managed to secure only seven seats.
Hervey Bay
HE IS ONE of One Nation’s great hopes in its bid to control the balance of power in the next Parliament, but Hervey Bay candidate Damian Huxham looks unlikely to wrest the Wide Bay seat from the LNP.
A Courier-Mail Galaxy poll has revealed incumbent Ted Sorensen should hold on to the seat at the November 25 election.
The 64-year-old – who was first elected to Parliament in 2009 – has seen a drop in his primary vote of almost 10 percentage points, but is still 10 points ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, polling at 55 per cent to Labor’s 45 per cent.
Hervey Bay was one of 11 seats to fall to One Nation when the resurgent right-wing party first burst on to Queensland’s political scene at the 1998 state election, and the party was expecting to do well there this time.
But the Courier-Mail Galaxy poll has revealed Mr Huxham is polling at 25 per cent on first preferences, and is coming third behind Mr Sorensen on 38 per cent and Labor’s Adrian Tantari on 31 per cent.
Galaxy Research managing director David Briggs said about one in three voters – 31 per cent – in the seat had indicated they intended to park their first preferences with a minor party with Mr Huxham being awarded the bulk of that vote.
He said this was sufficient for Mr Huxham to represent a “significant threat” but not enough for him to beat Labor to second place.
“His preference flow will then determine the outcome and this is likely to see Ted Sorensen returned with a slightly reduced majority,” Mr Briggs said.
Mr Sorensen currently holds the electorate with a margin of about 6.5 per cent.
Mundingburra
MUNDINGBURRA voters look set to turf out their second cabinet minister in as many elections, with Labor’s Coralee O’Rourke on the ropes in the north Queensland electorate.
Ms O’Rourke won the seat from former Newman government minister David Crisafulli with a 13 per cent swing at the 2015 election.
Her slim 2.8 per cent margin was eroded to just 1.8 per cent following this year’s boundary redistribution
A Courier-Mail Galaxy poll has revealed her vote has slipped further still, with the LNP on track to reclaim the seat from the Disability Services Minister with the help of One Nation.
The poll has revealed both Labor and the LNP have haemorrhaged support since the 2015 electorate, with a massive 41 per cent of voters instead choosing to park their first preference with a minor party.
One Nation has claimed the lion’s share of that vote, jumping from an estimated 1.2 per cent of the primary vote in 2015 – based on the new boundaries – to 20 per cent.
The Katter’s Australian Party vote has also increased, up from 3.1 per cent in 2015 to 12 per cent.
Ms O’Rourke’s primary vote has slipped from 37.4 per cent to 29 per cent while the LNP’s first preference vote has declined more than 10 per cent, from 40.6 per cent to 30 per cent.
The LNP’s Matthew Derlagen now leads Ms O’Rourke 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.
Galaxy Research managing director David Briggs said Ms O’Rourke received about 76 per cent of allocated preferences in 2015 as she rode the anti-Newman government sentiment to victory.
“This will not happen at the forthcoming election as the preference flow from the Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party candidates is expected to favour the LNP,” he said.
Under these circumstances Matthew Derlagen should claim the seat for the LNP.
Cairns
ANNASTACIA Palaszczuk is poised to reclaim the tourism mecca of Cairns despite competition from a rogue MP and a sharp fall in Labor’s primary support.
A Courier-Mail Galaxy poll has revealed Rob Pyne’s quest for re-election is doomed, with the former Labor member able to muster just 11 per cent of the primary vote.
Michael Healy, a tourism industry professional who Labor passed over for preselection before the 2015 election, is set to win the seat.
The poll shows Labor’s primary vote has sunk from 44.4 per cent to 37 per cent while the LNP has suffered a similar fate, falling from 37.4 per cent to 32 per cent.
In a surprise result, One Nation is on 13 per cent, besting the result of the high-profile Mr Pyne.
On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor leads 54 per cent to 46 per cent in a result that would ensure Mr Healy victory.
The Cairns electorate was won by the LNP’s Gavin King in 2012.
However Labor had held the seat for a century before the Newman government’s historic victory, and reclaimed it again in 2015.
Mr Pyne, a former councillor, quit Labor in 2016 after a falling-out with Deputy Premier Jackie Trad and has nominated for this election as an independent.
Bonney
THE new seat of Bonney will be a state election nailbiter for the major parties, with both Labor and the LNP in the hunt to claim the Gold Coast electorate on November 25.
A Courier-Mail Galaxy poll has revealed that while the LNP is leading on the primary vote, 45 per cent to Labor’s 39 per cent, both parties are sitting at 50 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.
The electorate was created in this year’s boundary redistribution and sits between the seats of Southport and Broadwater.
The LNP seat – with a margin of 2.2 per cent — was created using suburbs previously in the Southport, Gaven and Coomera electorates such as Parkwood, parts of Biggera Waters, Arundel, and parts of Helensvale.
Sam O’Connor, a staffer for federal MP Stuart Robert, is contesting the seat for the LNP against Labor’s Rowan Holzberger.
Galaxy Research managing director David Briggs said the lack of a One Nation candidate would benefit Labor in the seat, as the party attempted to break the LNP’s hold on the Gold Coast region.
“With no One Nation candidate the Greens will finish third in the seat and a strong preference flow from Greens candidate Amin Javanmard will ensure a close result,” he said.
Glass House
LNP frontbencher Andrew Powell is once again facing a fight to hold on to his Sunshine Coast electorate, with One Nation preferences set to decide the winner.
The former Newman government Minister suffered a 19 per cent swing against him – two-party-preferred — in 2015 when the LNP was swept from office after just one term, and a Courier-Mail Galaxy poll has revealed his primary vote has dropped by another 10 points since then.
Mr Powell’s first preference vote in the seat has dropped from an estimated 43.6 per cent – after the recent redistribution – to 33 per cent.
His electoral rival, Labor’s Brent Hampstead, is just six points behind with a primary vote of 27 per cent, according to the poll.
One a two-party-preferred basis the pair are sitting on 50 per cent each, with Labor firmly believing the electorate is in play.
One Nation is nipping at both their heels, with its candidate Tracey Bell-Henselin polling at 22 per cent.
Galaxy Research managing director David Briggs said, however, that while Ms Bell-Henselin was polling strongly, she was unlikely to leapfrog Labor and come in second.
“Even if Tracey Bell-Henselin was able to jump ahead of Labor and finish second on November 25, the preference flow from Labor’s Brent Hampstead would ensure Andrew Powell was returned,” he said.
“Tracy Bell-Henselin can still affect the outcome, however, as her preferences will no doubt determine the winner in the seat.”
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