Why cyclone weather model unlikely for Gympie, Fraser Coast

The Bureau of Meteorology has given clarity on the upcoming weather for the region after modelling showing a possible category one cyclone forming off the coast went viral.

BoM Map

A tropical low becoming a cyclone off the Wide Bay coastline has been called “unlikely” by a Bureau of Meteorology weather expert although residents can expect a wet and windy end to the week.

A Higgins Storm Chasers Facebook post showing a tropical low in the Gulf Of Carpentaria moving toward the Coral Sea near the Wide Bay region drew a multitude of comments about whether the region was in for some wild weather.

The post showed images of the predicted cyclone upon reaching the Wide Bay region, with produced three different video forecasts and six track maps on their website.

Higgins Storm Chasers predicted it could turn into a category one cyclone

Following “countless” post requests being sent to Higgins about the model, page administrator Thomas Hinterdorfer said the image was “one single model output (which happens to be the one everyone has access to)”.

A Bureau of Meteorology spokesman said the chance of a tropical cyclone off the Wide Bay coast is was unlikely.

There was still wet and windy weather in store in the coming days, though.

“There’s a low pressure system over North Queensland and it’s moving eastwards and it’s going to cross the Cairns coastline and move into the Coral Sea tomorrow or Thursday afternoon,” the BOM forecaster said.

“There will be strong winds along the Wide Bay coastline.

“Anyone heading out onto the water needs to check the forecast before heading out because the conditions do look quite treacherous over the New Year’s period.”

Mr Hinterdorfer said there was “no need to panic” about what the forecast might be.

“Model data has been very erratic, with large discrepancies between individual models beyond four days.

“We have seen some model data change the positioning of the system by more than 1000km between model runs in the four-to-seven day bracket.

“Due to that, we will need to continue to keep forecasts confined in order to maintain high accuracy.”