Editorial: Eyes on minority with a year to go

If a state election had been held this month there is every chance that neither major party would have won the 47 seats needed to form government in its own right, writes the editor.

If a state election had been held this month there is every chance that neither major party would have won the 47 seats needed to form government in its own right.

That is the extrapolation of the 52-48 two-party-preferred vote (in the LNP’s favour) that the exclusive – and trusted – YouGov poll for The Courier-Mail uncovered last week.

That result is equivalent to a whopping 5.2 percentage point swing away from the Palaszczuk government since the last election three years ago.

But it still would leave the LNP stranded on 44 seats if that swing fell uniformly across the state. Labor would be left with 42 seats, meaning both parties would have to find enough MPs on the cross bench willing to promise them support in order to take office as a minority government.

The common political wisdom is that minority governments are not good, in that they make it harder for an administration to get stuff done because everything needs to be run past the crossbench MPs on whose support everything is built.

There is also something that feels quite undemocratic about one, two or three lucky souls who emerge with the balance of power after an election determining who will hold office – a decision often dependent on what each side promises them.

Another observation is that poor behaviour by government MPs is more accepted than when there is a majority, as when in minority if you kick a troublemaker out of the party and banish them to the crossbench the leader risks bringing down their entire administration.

But there is a counterargument, too, which holds that minority government is better because the inherent uncertainty makes the debates flow more freely compared to the usual scenario where there is certainty in the outcome courtesy of the partisan rubber stamp.

The result, of course, can be better legislation. And this outcome should certainly be the case in the Queensland context because we do not have a second chamber to act as a house of review, the Legislative Council having been abolished a century ago last year.

We have been here before, of course. The first Palaszczuk government was – for almost three years from 2015 – propped up by Sunshine Coast hinterland independent Peter Wellington, when Labor fell one seat short of the 45 needed for a majority.

Wellington did so after extracting a list of 21 promises from Labor that ranged from accountability commitments and a promise of merit-based processes for appointing directors-general, to a range of concessions for his home town of Nambour.

The result was a government that worked hard to maintain its hold on power – a good outcome for the state; for when premiers and their ministers think their job is on the line they tend to work a lot harder.

Obviously, the LNP will hope next October’s poll delivers it a majority in its own right – and it has cause for confidence when you consider the trend in its favour, and that the current two-party preferred statewide vote already lands it just three seats shy of that victory.

For Labor it is a different story. Not only is the trend against it, but the polling numbers suggest a best-case scenario could be a Labor minority through an alliance with either the Greens or Katter’s Australian Party MPs (or both). That being the case, Ms Palaszczuk’s enthusiastic embrace of the $1.3bn Copperstring project should not come as any surprise.

EXTREME BRAVERY IN EXTREME CONDITIONS

There is an uneasy feeling across the state this morning, as people wait for temperatures to rise. winds to pick up and fires – particularly in the Western Downs and the Sunshine Coast – to spark into life again.

With the fire danger raised to extreme level in many areas, and 80 per cent of councils enacting total fire bans, it’s not a matter of if fires will whip up today, it’s just a question of how bad it will be.

Those of us who feel that sense of trepidation, from people whose properties back on to the bush to city dwellers who will be smelling the smoke and feeling the intense heat and the dry wind, there is only awe for the firefighters who will be putting themselves in harm’s way by their thousands.

Today will be like a military operation, with evacuations co-ordinated between the emergency services, and fire trucks and firefighting aircraft deployed by the generals at the Queensland Emergency Operations Centre at Kedron Park.

Still more volunteers will ensure that evacuees and frontline firefighters are fed, watered and have a place to sleep if the battle continues into Wednesday.

They are all amazing people. And they know they are fighting a battle that will never be won. There will always be another emergency.

So today we ask Queenslanders who are going about their everyday lives to spare a thought for those at the fire front, and if you’re so inclined, maybe a prayer.

Responsibility for election comment is taken by Chris Jones, corner of Mayne Rd & Campbell St, Bowen Hills, Qld 4006. Printed and published by NEWSQUEENSLAND (ACN 009 661 778). Contact details here