Poll finds Labor ahead of Liberals in marginal seat of Boothby

Labor is poised to easily capture Boothby, one of the most critical Adelaide seats at the federal election. But how is the independent candidate polling?

Labor is poised to capture the crucial marginal seat of Boothby for the first time in more than 70 years because it holds a commanding lead a fortnight from the federal election, according to an opinion poll.

Louise Miller-Frost, Labor’s candidate, has 55 per cent of two-party preferred support, the uComms poll of 810 Boothby voters finds, compared with Liberal rival Rachel Swift’s 45 per cent.

Both candidates’ primary backing is just over 30 per cent but Ms Miller-Frost is garnering almost 70 per cent of preferences to swell ALP two-party support, according to the poll commissioned by the SA Forest Products Association.

Dr Swift has 32.6 per cent primary support compared to Ms Miller-Frost’s 31.7 per cent.

Labor candidate for Boothby, Louise Miller-Frost, Premier Peter Malinauskas, and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, walk together near the Glenelg jetty on April 7. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Morgan Sette

High-profile independent Jo Dyer is capturing just 5.5 per cent primary support, behind the Greens at 10.5 per cent.

Ms Dyer’s support is slightly stronger among female voters, while both Labor and Liberal support is marginally higher among males.

The results suggest Labor’s landslide state election victory and Premier Peter Malinauskas’s electoral honeymoon have swelled the party’s stocks in the southeastern Adelaide seat.

Boothby is the Liberals’ fourth-most marginal seat, held by a 1.4 per cent margin, and a former stronghold that has been held by the party since 1949.

But the swing to Labor in Boothby, if repeated in Sturt, would not be enough to topple under-pressure incumbent James Stevens, who holds the eastern Adelaide seat with a 6.9 per cent margin.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison with Dr Rachel Swift, Liberal Candidate for Boothby at Sage Automation on April 20.

Jo Dyer, independent candidate for Boothby. Picture: Naomi Jellicoe

Boothby incumbent Nicolle Flint, who won the seat in 2016, is retiring at the May 21 election.

In an online Boothby debate on Thursday night, Ms Dyer said she “could not support” the Coalition and would be “very much hoping that we can have a minority Labor government”.

A uComms poll conducted in early February for the forestry association ahead of the March 19 state election found independent Geoff Brock heading for defeat by the-then deputy premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan and Mount Gambier independent Troy Bell comfortably ahead. Mr Bell won comfortably, as did Mr Brock.

In early March, an Utting Research poll conducted for the shop assistants’ union found the-then premier Steven Marshall at risk in his inner-eastern Adelaide seat of Dunstan. He scraped back, with a 0.5 per cent margin.

The uComms Boothby poll was conducted on May 4-5 using self-completed automated voice polling and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.43 per cent.

Originally published as Poll finds Labor ahead of Liberals in marginal seat of Boothby