SA election 2022: Opinion poll finds Premier Steven Marshall risks losing his seat of Dunstan

An opinion poll has found the Premier is at risk of being ousted from his inner eastern Adelaide seat, but it’s brought good news for Labor’s leader.

Premier Steven Marshall is at risk of losing his own inner-eastern Adelaide seat of Dunstan, according to a shock opinion poll result that also has him trailing Labor’s Peter Malinauskas as preferred premier.

The Premier trails Labor on two-party-preferred support by 49 per cent to 51 per cent, according to the Utting Research poll of 400 Dunstan voters.

Mr Marshall leads primary support, with 44 per cent, followed by Labor’s Dunstan candidate Cressida O’Hanlon on 37 per cent, The Greens’ Kay Moncrieff on 12 per cent, and others on eight per cent.

The poll will be downplayed by the Liberals because it was conducted by ALP researcher John Utting’s firm, and was commissioned by the shop assistants’ union – previously headed by Mr Malinauskas.

But Labor is seizing on results showing a seven-point erosion of Mr Marshall’s two-party preferred support since the 2018 election and is understood to be deploying more resources to the electorate in a bid to pressure the Premier.

This follows a Newspoll published on February 26, which showed Mr Marshall’s government at risk as he trailed as preferred premier 39 per cent to 46 per cent and Labor ahead on two-party preferred support by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

The automated telephone poll conducted by UR from February 25 to March 2, which has a margin of error of about five per cent, shows Mr Malinauskas leading Mr Marshall as preferred premier in Dunstan by 40 per cent to 39 per cent, with 21 per cent unsure.

Premier Steven Marshall and federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg at Bickford’s Salisbury factory on February 22. Picture Dean Martin

However, a similar Utting Research poll shows the Liberals easily in front, 55 per cent to 45 per cent on two-party-preferred support, in the western Adelaide seat of Colton, won in 2018 by Liberal Matt Cowdrey after Labor’s Paul Caica retired.

Liberal primary support in Colton was 47 per cent, compared to Labor’s 34 per cent, Greens 9 per cent and other 10.

Polled on key issues in both Dunstan and Colton, voters generally approved of the Liberal government’s handling of Covid-19 and jobs but disapproved on cost of living – a key issue as fuel prices spike.

The polling was conducted by the SDA union as part of a campaign for stronger protections for retail workers.

Dunstan, renamed from Norwood in 2012 to honour former Labor incumbent and premier Don Dunstan, was won easily by Mr Marshall in 2018 with 47 per cent of the primary vote and 56.1 per cent of two-party-preferred support.

Mr Marshall won Norwood in 2010 from Labor’s Vini Ciccarello, who captured it from one-term Liberal MP John Cummins in 1997.

Speculation ahead of the Liberals’ 2018 state election victory put Mr Marshall in trouble in Dunstan but an Advertiser-Galaxy poll in the campaign’s final days found him ahead of Labor 53-47.