Opinion poll: Kingmaker independent Geoff Brock faces defeat by Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan in Stuart electorate

A key independent is heading for a decisive loss to a senior Liberal at next month’s state election, an exclusive opinion poll finds.

The independent kingmaker who once handed power to Labor, Geoff Brock, is headed for a crushing defeat by Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan, a key opinion poll shows.

The rare polling insight into the race for the March 19 state election also shows independent Troy Bell comfortably leading in his Mount Gambier seat.

Voters in both the Stuart and Mount Gambier electorates believe the Liberal government has the best economic recovery plan to lead the state out of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the UComms polls conducted for the SA Forestry Products Association.

Mount Gambier voters preferred Premier Steven Marshall as state leader to Labor’s Peter Malinauskas – 53.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent – but this was reversed in Stuart with Mr Malinauskas ahead 51.6 per cent to 48.4 per cent.

Mr Brock, who famously handed victory to Labor’s Jay Weatherill over a pizza after the 2014 election, has had his powerbase eroded by an electoral redistribution that pits him against Mr van Holst Pellekaan in Stuart, which extends from the Spencer Gulf into the northeastern Outback.

MPs Geoff Brock (left) and Dan van Holst Pellekaan are going head to head at the March 19 state election in the seat of Stuart, after an electoral redistribution.

Mr Brock, a former Port Pirie mayor who served in Labor’s Cabinet from 2014-18, attracted 11.3 per cent of first-preference support, trailing Labor’s 17.4 per cent and Mr van Holst Pellekaan on 45.1 per cent.

This put Mr van Holst Pellekaan ahead by 60 per cent to Labor’s 40 per cent on two-party preferred support.

Disquiet about the Mount Gambier Liberal campaign has been reinforced by the party’s candidate, Ben Hood, attracting 20.2 per cent first-preference support, trailing Labor (22.5 per cent) and Mr Bell (35.7 per cent).

This put Mr Bell ahead by 58 per cent to Labor’s 42 per cent on two-party preferred support.

Mr Bell was elected as a Liberal in 2014 but turned independent in 2017 and was easily re-elected in 2018.

Mount Gambier accountant Josh Lewis and Troy Bell (right) at the regional city’s The Commercial Hotel. Picture: Kate Hill

In December last year, he was charged with more than 50 deception offences – unrelated to his impending High Court challenge over other theft and dishonesty charges – and has vowed to defend them “to the fullest extent”.

The automated voice polling of 402 and 406 voters in Mount Gambier and Stuart respectively is the first detailed insight into state electorates for almost a year.

A statewide Sunday Mail-YouGov poll in March last year showed the Liberals ahead of Labor 51 per cent to 49 per cent on two-party preferred support – down from a 53-47 per cent result in September, 2020.

But Mr Marshall then held a commanding 20-point lead as preferred Premier – 50 per cent believed he would do a better job than Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas, who was favoured by 30 per cent.